Severe WX February 8th - 12th deep south severe threat.

[UncleJuJu98]

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 135

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

New tornado watch coming, SPC unlclear on where and when the more intense storms will form or be

 

[OHWX97]

Cell near Greensburg Louisiana needs to be watched

It seems the other cells embedded in that line are beginning to rotate as well.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

It seems the other cells embedded in that line are beginning to rotate as well.

Hrrr has shown consistently a few stronger updrafts/storms from that line

 

[CheeselandSkies]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
440 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
South central Acadia Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
North central Vermilion Parish in southwestern Louisiana...

* Until 515 PM CST.

* At 439 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located over mainly rural areas of Vermillion Parish,
near Kaplan and Gueydan, moving north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Gueydan and Wright around 455 PM CST.
Morse and Lyons Point around 505 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Florence Landing and Estherwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2984 9239 2985 9252 3018 9249 3011 9225
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 196DEG 32KT 2989 9246

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Calhoun

 

[OHWX97]

Tight couplet southwest of Montpelier, LA.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tight couplet southwest of Monteplier, LA. View attachment 17633

These storms will continue to strengthen as the sun falls. May be a long evening night with some of these storms. Not holding my breath but modeling shows these storms being the longer lives stronger ones.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

3 embedded supercell rotations.

 

[OHWX97]

These storms will continue to strengthen as the sun falls. May be a long evening night with some of these storms. Not holding my breath but modeling shows these storms being the longer lives stronger ones.

It doesn’t seem to have much to compete with at the moment. Of course that could change at any moment with these messy setups.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tight rotation now tornado warned

 

[OHWX97]

Tight rotation now tornado warned View attachment 17637

That could be the storm of the day right there.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That could be the storm of the day right there.

If it drops it will, may be a case where low level shear isn't good enough, a lot of days go with tornadoes dropping left and right or just spinning in the atmosphere, I'm wondering if there's any ground truth in the area. There's about 7 embedded rotations in that mcs right now lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Feel like this event is sliding into a more damaging wind event lol, let's see what the nocturnal jet does, it may boost the storms to what's needed to produce. Hopefully not though.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That structure on the Montpelier tornado warning is really good. Watch out, in case this drops nocturnal jet kicks in soon.

Got a good inflow notch on the bottom of the mcs cell to the north maybe interfering with it. Maybe merging?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Too messy, todays a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency for tornadoes.

The Greensburg cell is half decent, may prove me wrong.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tds on the Greensburg cell..?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

You made it mad.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

You made it mad.

It's going through another cycling. So the mesocyclone may get bigger again lol. Pretty sure it has a CC drop on top of the velocity couplet so it may be down. But it's also cycling.

It's gotta make room for bigger inflow

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tornado is down. Crossed south of Kentwood over the highway *

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Annnnd, just like that rotation is almost non existent in 3 scans. Getting choked out by convection surrounding it. It was the most healthy supercell of the day, not sure anything will rival it for the rest of the night. Maybe a cell or two near baton rouge moving northeast may pose a problem in the future but we will see.