Severe WX February 8th - 12th deep south severe threat.

[UncleJuJu98]

Consensus is becoming clear a threat of severe weather somewhere from Texas to Georgia will come to fruition in the time frame of the 8th to the 10th.

With the 18z GFS becoming more bullish on instability with 1000j of instability pushing into central Alabama. With forecasted timing being around peak heating for Mississippi and Alabama currently; sufficient to moderate amount of instability along with sufficient upper air shear should be present for a squall line / semi broken squall line to make it's way through the south with at least a low tornado damaging wind threat.

Details are bound to change! But synoptically at this point a low threat of severe weather seems possible.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Parameters to go along with the post above.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

This could be a sleeper event. A good mesh point of adequate - moderate instability along with adequate- moderate shear.

Straight westerlies at 500mb as well for a portion of the event.

Sneaky little event.

18z GFS is more broken line than semi broken squall line.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

If the GFS is onto something, this could end up being a pretty significant event. It doesn't start out that way, but the system kind of gradually evolves into the classic wide-wavelength trough with a thick belt of WSW 500mb flow that raises alarm bells. It also gives more time for airmass modification/moisture return, with low 60s dews as far north as southern Kentucky by 00Z 2/10 on the 18Z run. Looking at the soundings, it's not a shallow moist layer, either. Something to watch for sure.

 

[KevinH]

This will be interesting to watch…. again lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

If the GFS is onto something, this could end up being a pretty significant event. It doesn't start out that way, but the system kind of gradually evolves into the classic wide-wavelength trough that raises alarm bells. It also gives more time for airmass modification/moisture return, with low 60s dews as far north as southern Kentucky by 00Z 2/10 on the 18Z run. Looking at the soundings, it's not a shallow moist layer, either. Something to watch for sure.

The GFS was spot on from long range with the surface low and evolution of the ejection from the coastal event when it got into the 7 day range from what I can remember. I'm gonna side with the GFS. Very sneaky setup. With peak heating as the shortwave moves through Mississippi and Alabama lapse rates should be lesser of a worrying point than the last event that came through mostly at night or in the evening.


18z GFS also shows the wedge being less impactful than 06z and 12z.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Checking the 12z euro it kinda primes the atmosphere a bit with a southerly flow ahead of the system getting in range. with where the high pressure is situated. Both the 12z euro and 18z GFS are relatively concerning potential wise.

 

[KevinH]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

@CheeselandSkies
It's funny how wide trough events usually ends up being your better tornado events in the south. Although for you prolific significant events kinda need that compact bowling ball perfectly positioned with westerlies.

 

[KevinH]

@CheeselandSkies
It's funny how wide trough events usually ends up being your better tornado events in the south. Although for you prolific significant events kinda need that compact bowling ball perfectly positioned with westerlies.

Just to be clear: Texas does not count as the south hahahahahahaha

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Just to be clear: Texas does not count as the south hahahahahahaha

I'm always confused I see it in some places that it's considered the south and then some places not lol. I guess I should just refer it as a part of the southeast. Like the southeast quadrant of the United States lol.

 

[KevinH]

I'm always confused I see it in some places that it's considered the south and then some places not lol. I guess I should just refer it as a part of the southeast. Like the southeast quadrant of the United States lol.

No.. That’s even worse lol

Texas is definitely NOT in any part of the SouthEAST lol

 

[warneagle]

I'm always confused I see it in some places that it's considered the south and then some places not lol. I guess I should just refer it as a part of the southeast. Like the southeast quadrant of the United States lol.

Texas (or at least east Texas) is part of the south geographically but it's not part of the deep south (which is generally restricted to Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana), which is both a geographic and a cultural thing.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

06z gfs and 00z euro have a closer ejection to the deep south. With less push back on a advancing warm front...

We are far away from being in the southeast quadrant of the 500mb trough though lol. But saying that it keeps the flow due west.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

12z GFS less defined with the surface low and a bit more southeast. Hopefully this doesn't trend day by day into a coastal event lol. Just be consistent for once please globals!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Instability values have risen pretty significantly on the 18z GFS for Mississippi and western Alabama.
The surface low is a big question though.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Big differences in the European vs GFS ensembles and operational. The euros solution would probably be worst.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Seems like the Canadian and euro are on board with the deeper /stacked low compared to the GFS. Nasty squall line with some spins and possibly some storms ahead of it.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Looks like that one run with the big, broad wavelength trough and double-barreled shortwave was an anomaly.

 

[Argus]

And I will be heading out of town that Thursday.