Severe Weather 2022

[JPWX]

The CPC is highlighting a Slight Risk of Heavy Precipitation around the general timeframe as both @Fred Gossage and @JBishopwx have mentioned.

 

[KevinH]

And just as I say that, the 18z GFS comes in with a face value more robust looking threat around the 10th-11th for classic Dixie Alley. HOWEVER, that is ~240 hours out, and we take that with a whole shaker of salt, not just a grain...

That’s what I get for bringing it up SMDH

 

[KevinH]

And just as I say that, the 18z GFS comes in with a face value more robust looking threat around the 10th-11th for classic Dixie Alley. HOWEVER, that is ~240 hours out, and we take that with a whole shaker of salt, not just a grain...

Also interesting that those dates (for NOW) JUST HAPPEN to fall on the anniversary date of the Outbreak last December.

As always, things can and probably will change but it looks like I live right where the action could take place per what @JBishopwx a few comments ago (West Central GA).

Something to monitor…. AGAIN.

 

[MichelleH]

Also interesting that those dates (for NOW) JUST HAPPEN to fall on the anniversary date of the Outbreak last December.

As always, things can and probably will change but it looks like I live right where the action could take place per what @JBishopwx a few comments ago (West Central GA).

Something to monitor…. AGAIN.

Welcome to the South.

 

[KevinH]

Welcome to the South.

Yep! I live in West Central Georgia lol

 

[Sawmaster]

Welcome to the South.

And I wouldn't want to live anywhere else Upstate SC gets it's share of tornadoes with some oddities regards paths and frequency which nobody has ever been able to adequately explain. And of course it's going to rain tomorrow because I need to0 get some things done outside. Yep- it's the South

 

[KevinH]

View attachment 15767View attachment 15768

What do these look like now?

 

[JPWX]

Looks like a heavy rain and flash flood threat next week especially if you get training over the same areas. While no severe weather threat is currently forecasted, I suspect a strong to isolated severe storm will be possible at the very least. Looks like the best areas that could see storm training is from North MS into northern Alabama.

 

[Fred Gossage]

 

[GA Stormchaser]

SPC watching the period beyond next Wed. Snippet of their extended outlook…..

“However, lapse rates appear likely to remain quite weak, and thus CAPE would at this time appear likely to remain minimal at best. Still, very favorable shear is expected, supportive of both rotating storms, or damaging wind potential depending upon amount -- and mode -- of convection.

With that said, will opt not to introduce 15% risk area at this time, due to the thermodynamic uncertainties. However, an areal inclusion may be needed in subsequent outlooks -- particularly if models remain consistent in terms of system strength and associated theta-e advection across the warm sector.”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Don't look now, but today's 12Z GFS has 60s dewpoints getting into SE MO/SRN IL/WRN KY beneath a broad belt of diffluent WSW flow at 500mb, this coming Thursday the 8th.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

There is a huge difference between the GFS and EURO. However, I do remember when the GFS use to be more concerning for this period and looks like the other models lean more towards the EURO so keep a close eye on the Day 6-10 period.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 051000
SPC AC 051000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Mon Dec 05 2022

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Latest runs of the global models exhibit a rather substantial amount
of spread -- even early in the period -- with respect to evolution
of features both surface and aloft.

Day 4/Thursday, a short-wave trough is forecast to eject quickly
eastward across the Plains/Midwest. The GFS continues to depict a
stronger feature -- thus with a similarly faster and substantially
more northward positioning of the surface low. ECMWF and GFS
ensembles depict surface low positioning more consistent with their
deterministic counterparts -- in other words, the under-dispersive
solutions do not lend any assistance with respect to evolution of
the surface low.

Degree of moisture return in this scenario is a key
detail/component, as it pertains to any possible severe-weather
potential. As such, with the several-hundred mile north/south
envelope of current solutions with respect to warm-frontal location,
assessment of available moisture/instability across the potential
area of interest over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley vicinity cannot be
ascertained with any degree of confidence.

Differences with progression of this feature increase further Day
5/Friday, while generally low-amplitude flow prevails westward
across the remainder of the CONUS, which should persist for a couple
of days. Late in the period, the ECMWF shows evolution of
eventually high-amplitude troughing over the central U.S., in stark
contrast to a much-less-amplified/more zonal pattern until a Pacific
trough approaches the West Coast at the very end of the period.

Given the model differences described above, predictability -- with
respect to convective potential -- remains low throughout the medium
range.

..Goss.. 12/05/2022

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The 12z GFS run flopped back to the more concerning setup for severe weather with a significant event next Monday, December 12th.

 

[KevinH]

The 12z GFS run flopped back to the more concerning setup for severe weather with a significant event next Monday, December 12th.

Where is it saying (for now)?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

The 12z euro has the system also next Monday little slower …. Shear is off charts. Got dig into it little more later

 

[KevinH]

The 12z euro has the system also next Monday little slower …. Shear is off charts. Got dig into it little more later

Thank you. Keep us posted!

 

[JPWX]

With the exception of the 12z GFS, the 12z Canadian, and Euro both have pretty good rainfall totals through the next 10 days across the Mid-South region. As far as severe weather potential next week, all the 12z model runs have that "look" as far as the 500mb level goes.

 

[Fred Gossage]

Any severe weather threat early next week will be heavily dictated by what happens with the upper-level pattern toward the end of this week and mainly into the weekend, and mainly off the East Coast. The GFS wants to take a shortwave from OK/AR on Friday, across the Tennessee Valley Saturday and then dig it off the Southeast coast Sunday into early next week. That would effectively make sure there is absolutely no way on Al Gore's internet that quality moisture would return significantly inland ahead of the ejecting storm system early next week. The Euro, however, has a zonal low amplitude flow over the weekend and then low amplitude ridging building off the Southeast coast late weekend into early next week, and that would leave the door wide open for significant moisture return inland in addition to the Friday or so cold front not really intruding through the Gulf over the weekend.

FWIW, there's currently a good bit more model/ensemble support for something at least somewhat similar to the Euro, than there is the GFS/GFS ensembles. The Euro also handled last week's system better earlier on, with the faster timing, overall trough evolution, etc. We'll see how this evolves over the next few days, but the threat will be heavily determined by the weekend pattern off the East Coast. You will NOT see a significant severe weather risk with that system early next week if the GFS is more correct with significant troughing digging off the East Coast and then sitting around. Point blank, period.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The 18z and 00z GFS runs followed with the drastic changes that we saw in the 12z run adding confidence that we have made a substantial move toward a potentially significant severe weather threat next Monday.

 

[KevinH]

The 18z and 00z GFS runs followed with the drastic changes that we saw in the 12z run adding confidence that we have made a substantial move toward a potentially significant severe weather threat next Monday.

NOW let’s see what the SPC says with the next D4-8 (if anything)

I smell a new thread coming