Severe WX April 11-14th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

[atrainguy]

Some damage pics from Salado

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Agree hour away … new update. Broyles is the new hale. Forecaster who used work spc was aggressive

Hales was a legend. I could always count on him for doom watches. Broyles will never compare lol.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Some damage pics from Salado

What was the building that was slabbed near Salado, TX?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Hales was a legend. I could always count on him for doom watches. Broyles will never compare lol.

As a storm monger. Hate say lol. He gave me hope

 

[TornadoFan]

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 473

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[NorthGaWeather]

As a storm monger. Hate say lol. He gave me hope

For a while there, we had Jack at one end of the scale, and Greg Dial at the other (far more conservative end). It made for interesting forecasts.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

andyhb posted that building from yesterday and I was thinking that was the church that was slabbed but apparently it was not.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

For a while there, we had Jack at one end of the scale, and Greg Dial at the other (far more conservative end). It made for interesting forecasts.

I’m really hoping Roger Thompson does next update … love reading his texts . He pretty
Much gospel from spc as u can get . I pay very close attention him lol

 

[UK_EF4]

To me the only limiting factor from a High-Risk standard, significant outbreak is probably storm mode messiness. The parameter space is there, with significant instability and sufficient low-level shear. On lots of high-res model/CAM guidance, we do get initiation ahead of the line, but it is very messy and grows upscale. If we get more discrete or even semi discrete, I think we have big problems. However, HRRR has been quite consistent in the last 5-10 runs or so in *not* keeping a semi-discrete/discrete mode. Hopefully this stays the same.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

I’m really hoping Roger Thompson does next update … love reading his texts . He pretty
Much gospel from spc as u can get . I pay very close attention him lol

Yeah, he is a really good forecaster.

 

[atrainguy]

andyhb posted that building from yesterday and I was thinking that was the church that was slabbed but apparently it was not.

It's a bit hard to tell with the angle and dim lighting, but this pic kinda makes it look like maybe the tornado completely destroyed and perhaps swept away the back side of the building, leaving the front wall(s) still standing. Maybe the picture of the foundation that andyhb shared was from what used to be the back side of the building?

 

[UK_EF4]

I’m really hoping Roger Thompson does next update … love reading his texts . He pretty
Much gospel from spc as u can get . I pay very close attention him lol

Yes same here as well... he wrote the last MD so hopefully he does next update also.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

It's a bit hard to tell with the angle and dim lighting, but this pic kinda makes it look like maybe the tornado completely destroyed and perhaps swept away the back side of the building, leaving the front wall(s) still standing. Maybe the picture of the foundation that andyhb shared was from what used to be the back side of the building?

Yeah, I was wondering that. It still looks like it could be intense EF3 tornado damage.

 

[South AL Wx]

70/40 tornado probs with this watch. 80/60 wind and 60/60 hail probs.

 

[MattPetrulli]

To me the only limiting factor from a High-Risk standard, significant outbreak is probably storm mode messiness. The parameter space is there, with significant instability and sufficient low-level shear. On lots of high-res model/CAM guidance, we do get initiation ahead of the line, but it is very messy and grows upscale. If we get more discrete or even semi discrete, I think we have big problems. However, HRRR has been quite consistent in the last 5-10 runs or so in *not* keeping a semi-discrete/discrete mode. Hopefully this stays the same.

Yeah, unless we go back to supercells as depicted by 00z HRRR, I think HRRR and other CAMs have trended towards a really messy solution and may prevent that from being a high-end day, if I were betting I would bet on it not being a high-end day but we'll see.

 

[MattPetrulli]

Yeah, unless we go back to supercells as depicted by 00z HRRR, I think HRRR and other CAMs have trended towards a really messy solution and may prevent that from being a high-end day, if I were betting I would bet on it not being a high-end day but we'll see.

Also cloud cover over Arkansas isn't helping this setup by any means

 

[xJownage]

I went from being very bullish on MS yesterday morning to skeptical overnight. Each subsequent run has become more and more messy - with initiation coming already in the arklatex area. I'm not worried about cloud cover or anything else, but the fact that this is going to grow upscale before it ever interacts with the better shear.

There's always the chance for a rogue embedded supercell structure, but I'm not seeing any forcing to form supercells ahead of the expected MCS, and think we've downtrended to a QLCS event. QLCS events are obviously dangerous in their own ways, but I'm not seeing the long track tornado potential at this point given the extremely messy storm mode. 300/400 0-3km SRH can absolutely get it done should an embedded supercell structure form.

 

[OHWX97]

Also cloud cover over Arkansas isn't helping this setup by any means
View attachment 13442

SE Arkansas, NE Louisiana, and western Mississippi look to be clear or clearing. That's the area I'm most concerned about. Even up into western Tennessee is pretty clear.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

SE Arkansas, NE Louisiana, and western Mississippi look to be clear or clearing. That's the area I'm most concerned about. Even up into western Tennessee is pretty clear.

Good point. Here west tn clearing out nicely . Feel the cape building

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Yes same here as well... he wrote the last MD so hopefully he does next update also.

He was on the 1630z yesterday.