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Severe WX April 11-14th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

NorthGaWeather said:
For a while there, we had Jack at one end of the scale, and Greg Dial at the other (far more conservative end). It made for interesting forecasts.
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I’m really hoping Roger Thompson does next update … love reading his texts . He pretty
Much gospel from spc as u can get . I pay very close attention him lol
 
To me the only limiting factor from a High-Risk standard, significant outbreak is probably storm mode messiness. The parameter space is there, with significant instability and sufficient low-level shear. On lots of high-res model/CAM guidance, we do get initiation ahead of the line, but it is very messy and grows upscale. If we get more discrete or even semi discrete, I think we have big problems. However, HRRR has been quite consistent in the last 5-10 runs or so in *not* keeping a semi-discrete/discrete mode. Hopefully this stays the same.
 
Shakespeare 2016 said:
andyhb posted that building from yesterday and I was thinking that was the church that was slabbed but apparently it was not.
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It's a bit hard to tell with the angle and dim lighting, but this pic kinda makes it look like maybe the tornado completely destroyed and perhaps swept away the back side of the building, leaving the front wall(s) still standing. Maybe the picture of the foundation that andyhb shared was from what used to be the back side of the building?

 
atrainguy said:
It's a bit hard to tell with the angle and dim lighting, but this pic kinda makes it look like maybe the tornado completely destroyed and perhaps swept away the back side of the building, leaving the front wall(s) still standing. Maybe the picture of the foundation that andyhb shared was from what used to be the back side of the building?

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Yeah, I was wondering that. It still looks like it could be intense EF3 tornado damage.
 
UK_EF4 said:
To me the only limiting factor from a High-Risk standard, significant outbreak is probably storm mode messiness. The parameter space is there, with significant instability and sufficient low-level shear. On lots of high-res model/CAM guidance, we do get initiation ahead of the line, but it is very messy and grows upscale. If we get more discrete or even semi discrete, I think we have big problems. However, HRRR has been quite consistent in the last 5-10 runs or so in *not* keeping a semi-discrete/discrete mode. Hopefully this stays the same.
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Yeah, unless we go back to supercells as depicted by 00z HRRR, I think HRRR and other CAMs have trended towards a really messy solution and may prevent that from being a high-end day, if I were betting I would bet on it not being a high-end day but we'll see.
 
I went from being very bullish on MS yesterday morning to skeptical overnight. Each subsequent run has become more and more messy - with initiation coming already in the arklatex area. I'm not worried about cloud cover or anything else, but the fact that this is going to grow upscale before it ever interacts with the better shear.

There's always the chance for a rogue embedded supercell structure, but I'm not seeing any forcing to form supercells ahead of the expected MCS, and think we've downtrended to a QLCS event. QLCS events are obviously dangerous in their own ways, but I'm not seeing the long track tornado potential at this point given the extremely messy storm mode. 300/400 0-3km SRH can absolutely get it done should an embedded supercell structure form.
 
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