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Severe WX April 11-14th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

Casuarina Head said:
“If one cell can get out alone...”

Just copy and paste for a lot of recent events and that’s signature-worthy. Events like Super Tuesday, Easter 2020, and so on seem to have become quite rare.
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Outbreaks of that caliber, especially something with as many violent tornadoes as Super Tuesday 2008, have ALWAYS been rare, all the way back to the 1800s. With the SINGLE exception of the stretch from 2003-2011 where we had three events of Super Tuesday level violence within that stretch, outbreaks with that many violent tornadoes or more have ALWAYS averaged to happen in the United States once every 9 to 13 years. Period. Recorded FACT. No room for debate, discussion, or opinion. Period. This has been pointed out more than once or twice. At this point, you're intentionally ignoring documented fact to push some misinformed and already disproven opinion. I've tried to be relatively patient for the last year of this tripe... but it's really getting tiresome.
 
Casuarina Head said:
“If one cell can get out alone...”

Just copy and paste for a lot of recent events and that’s signature-worthy. Events like Super Tuesday, Easter 2020, and so on seem to have become quite rare.
Click to expand...
I'm so sorry that we haven't had big outbreaks that have met your criteria.
 
Fred Gossage said:
I still think there are potential problems with messy convection because of widespread initiation, the potential for a rapid blowup of convection in Louisiana and central/south Mississippi as the stuff in the Delta to the Memphis area is trying to form that may cause issues with the low-level jet, and also the caveat we've had all along... deep-layer shear possibly not being strong enough to organize convection until after things get messy. If the deep-layer shear magnitude is not strong enough to favor supercells before the convection initiates or while it's still very isolated at the beginning of the event, then convection will end up being very messy with unorganized, short-lived updrafts... and that may open the door for this to turn into a big, rainy grunge-fest so that even the prefrontal QLCS underperforms. I'm not really to turn my back on the thing, but I am HIGHLY unconvinced in something higher-end happening later today, even with just one or two storms.
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I agree here as well. I was seeing this in the modeling pretty consistently. I’m hoping for a messy storm mode to put a lid on a potentially bad day
 
Yeah, obviously HRRR may be incorrect etc. but things look wayyy too messy for a properly high-end event, which is a good thing. Still, one or two cells may organise and become tornadic, and with more instability to work with than the March QLCS events, the chances of a robust renegade supercell are probably a bit higher, but still things look very messy. We should watch trends through the day though, it wouldn't take much to allow this event to turn a bit higher end.

In regards to the discussion wording, I noticed it was written by Forecaster Broyles, who has tended to be *slightly* aggressive with *some* events in the past. I will be interested to see the 13z discussion. 1649850724592.png
 
UK_EF4 said:
Yeah, obviously HRRR may be incorrect etc. but things look wayyy too messy for a properly high-end event, which is a good thing. Still, one or two cells may organise and become tornadic, and with more instability to work with than the March QLCS events, the chances of a robust renegade supercell are probably a bit higher, but still things look very messy. We should watch trends through the day though, it wouldn't take much to allow this event to turn a bit higher end.

In regards to the discussion wording, I noticed it was written by Forecaster Broyles, who has tended to be *slightly* aggressive with *some* events in the past. I will be interested to see the 13z discussion. View attachment 13441
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Agree hour away … new update. Broyles is the new hale. Forecaster who used work spc was aggressive
 
Casuarina Head said:
The only caveat is that the SPC is referring to an isolated EF3+ tornado, suggesting a localised event rather than a widespread, discrete outbreak with multiple EF3+ long-trackers associated with multiple families. Just two to three days ago the setup seemed to favour a widespread outbreak with multiple intense tornadoes associated with multiple families, with the Hatched ≥15% covering most or all of the current 10% tornado probabilities. The overall forcing is still much more linear than it looked to be several days ago, and the scope of the event has narrowed. This event will be significant but not outstanding, and comparable to a lot of recent events that were locally severe but not widespread in regard to multiple discrete, violent families. It seems to be very difficult to get large-scale outbreaks with EF4+ events in multiple families.
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Long-time lurker, but this is the post I've got to make.

I appreciate the knowledge and analysis you bring to this forum, and I even generally agree somewhat with the spirit of your post, but it's also factually incorrect. I don't want to clutter up the board with screenshots of days' worth of SPC forecasts, but you need to go review. Day 3 had a large hatched 30% ALL SEVERE area. Day 2 introduced specific probs: widespread 30%/sig wind and large 10%/sig tor. Day 2.2 introduced large 45%/sig wind and smallish 15%/sig tor. Day 1 now has a larger 15%/sig tornado.

The scope of the discrete threat has broadened as the event has become closer. I live directly in this threat area, so I am intently watching this. Please be sure before you comment on trends that you're factually restating the trend.

Thus far this morning, there's been more crapvection initiation than forecast... the CAMs go both ways with being terrible on both convective and "crapvective" intitiation. I hope it can stamp down on the discrete activity, but I'm not thoroughly convinced. Multiple times, I've seen supercells become mature and tornadic within the span of a couple of counties in the West TN/E AR/NW MS area, so we don't need a super "clean" discrete threat with a lot of separation from the QLCS. Additionally, if it stays messy until closer to the QLCS, it'll also time with the beginning of the nocturnal LLJ, which should be backed east of south, increasing the tornado threat during the sunset hours.

Overall, widespread EF3+? Don't know, not gonna forecast that. Threat for widespread non-weak (EF0/1) tornadoes? Absolutely. Don't sleep on today.
 
CCAir90 said:
Long-time lurker, but this is the post I've got to make.

I appreciate the knowledge and analysis you bring to this forum, and I even generally agree somewhat with the spirit of your post, but it's also factually incorrect. I don't want to clutter up the board with screenshots of days' worth of SPC forecasts, but you need to go review. Day 3 had a large hatched 30% ALL SEVERE area. Day 2 introduced specific probs: widespread 30%/sig wind and large 10%/sig tor. Day 2.2 introduced large 45%/sig wind and smallish 15%/sig tor. Day 1 now has a larger 15%/sig tornado.

The scope of the discrete threat has broadened as the event has become closer. I live directly in this threat area, so I am intently watching this. Please be sure before you comment on trends that you're factually restating the trend.

Thus far this morning, there's been more crapvection initiation than forecast... the CAMs go both ways with being terrible on both convective and "crapvective" intitiation. I hope it can stamp down on the discrete activity, but I'm not thoroughly convinced. Multiple times, I've seen supercells become mature and tornadic within the span of a couple of counties in the West TN/E AR/NW MS area, so we don't need a super "clean" discrete threat with a lot of separation from the QLCS. Additionally, if it stays messy until closer to the QLCS, it'll also time with the beginning of the nocturnal LLJ, which should be backed east of south, increasing the tornado threat during the sunset hours.

Overall, widespread EF3+? Don't know, not gonna forecast that. Threat for widespread non-weak (EF0/1) tornadoes? Absolutely. Don't sleep on today.
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Wow just now noticed you from Jackson tn. So am I. Lol. Good post friend
 
Edith said:
I agree here as well. I was seeing this in the modeling pretty consistently. I’m hoping for a messy storm mode to put a lid on a potentially bad day
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We all wish for a lid on a bad day. I'm not a meteorologist. I did work with statistics every day in one of my former professions and understand the probability of a violent tornado happening, but it is always a possibility in this environment. I'm leaning toward Fred's prediction with all the previous convection, but at the same time, I also see a broken line of smaller storms from Columbus, MS, back west into Ark that's moving Northeast along with skies starting to clear behind it that is still troublesome.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Spc just expanded the tornado 15 hatched even more
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Some very strong wording there:

"upward adjustment to the current Moderate Risk category
does not appear prudent at this time" - Unsure if this meant an upgrade to high risk or northward extension. I think the latter.

"Discrete supercells ahead of the organizing
squall line will have the potential for strong/intense tornadoes
including some that are potentially long-track, particularly as the
low-level jet further strengthens across the region later this
afternoon into early evening. This corridor of
stronger/longer-duration tornado concern is focused across the
Mid-South/ArkLaMiss vicinity." - This is the main bit that caught my eye
 
UK_EF4 said:
Some very strong wording there:

"upward adjustment to the current Moderate Risk category
does not appear prudent at this time" - Unsure if this meant an upgrade to high risk or northward extension. I think the latter.

"Discrete supercells ahead of the organizing
squall line will have the potential for strong/intense tornadoes
including some that are potentially long-track, particularly as the
low-level jet further strengthens across the region later this
afternoon into early evening. This corridor of
stronger/longer-duration tornado concern is focused across the
Mid-South/ArkLaMiss vicinity." - This is the main bit that caught my eye
Click to expand...

Feel like they would have used “northward adjustment” if talking about expanding the 15% hatched to the north. They always seem very particular in their choice of words.


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UK_EF4 said:
Some very strong wording there:

"upward adjustment to the current Moderate Risk category
does not appear prudent at this time" - Unsure if this meant an upgrade to high risk or northward extension. I think the latter.

"Discrete supercells ahead of the organizing
squall line will have the potential for strong/intense tornadoes
including some that are potentially long-track, particularly as the
low-level jet further strengthens across the region later this
afternoon into early evening. This corridor of
stronger/longer-duration tornado concern is focused across the
Mid-South/ArkLaMiss vicinity." - This is the main bit that caught my eye
Click to expand...
Completely sunny. Mostly here now
 
JPWX said:
I'm so sorry that we haven't had big outbreaks that have met your criteria.
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Yeah... We just had an event here in Mississippi that produce around 25 tornadoes just a few weeks ago...
 
Sun is shining bright here in Smithville MS. Not good
 
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