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Severe WX April 11-14th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

kevinrock

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Spring Valley, MN... good grief.
View attachment 13434
Appeared to be a brief TDS for a few scans associated with that
e4f915e11ded4b642c28a958ab75a490.jpg


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Equus

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Tornado warning for Monroe, LA; would sure be a good time for KULM to be up but has missed virtually the entire outbreak series this last month being down
 

TornadoFan

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I cannot post the latest HRRR run, but it shows discrete to semi discrete supercells over Louisiana into Arkansas at around 21Z.
 

MattPetrulli

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New day 1 expands Moderate to the north, pretty strong wording in discussion
1649830033418.png
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely today across a large
part of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley northward into the Midwest,
and lower Ohio Valley. Several tornadoes with some strong,
widespread damaging winds, some of which could be significant, and
large to very large hail will likely occur.

...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward across the
southern and central Plains today, as a 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet
ejects northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. To the
southeast of the mid-level jet, a moist and unstable airmass will be
in place across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A convective
line will likely move eastward across southern Missouri and
northwest Arkansas during the morning. Other storms will develop
during the morning ahead of the line from the Arklatex northeastward
into the mid Mississippi Valley. A severe threat is expected to
develop early in the day, and ramp up quickly during the mid to late
morning as destabilization occurs.

By midday, moderate to strong instability will be in place from
northern Louisiana north-northeastward across eastern Arkansas,
where model forecasts have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range.
The southeastern edge of the mid-level jet will create strong
deep-layer shear across the western edge of the moist and unstable
airmass. RAP forecast soundings across eastern Arkansas into far
southeast Missouri by 20Z show loaded gun soundings with a shallow
capping inversion, 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range, and 0-3
km storm relative helicity of 400 to 500 m2/s2. This should be very
favorable for supercells and tornadoes. Discrete supercells ahead of
the approaching squall-line should have potential for long-track
strong tornadoes. As the low-level jet strengthens during the mid
afternoon across eastern Arkansas, northwest Mississippi and far
western Tennessee, there will be a chance for an EF3+ tornado,
associated with the most dominating storm that occurs.
Supercells
will also be capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Hailstones of 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more
intense supercells. As the squall-line further west organizes and
intensifies, widespread damaging wind gusts will become likely
during the early afternoon. Some wind gusts of over 65 knots may
occur with the more intense and faster moving parts of the line.

The severe threat should continue eastward across western Tennessee
and northern Mississippi during the late afternoon and early
evening, where widespread damaging wind gusts will be likely. The
wind-damage and large hail threat should gradually become more
isolated during the mid to late evening, as the squall-line
encounters weaker instability to the east.

...Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley...
An upper-level low will move east-northeastward across the northern
Plains today as an associated upper-level trough moves through the
central Plains. This trough will take on a negative tilt during the
day as a 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the
mid Mississippi Valley. To the east of the mid-level jet, a corridor
of moderate instability will develop across eastern Missouri and
western Illinois by early afternoon. Thunderstorms will quickly
develop about that time along a cold front further west. These
storms will likely obtain a wind damage and large hail threat as the
convection organizes into a squall line. Severe thunderstorms will
also likely develop ahead of the line during the afternoon, with all
storms merging into a severe MCS by early evening.

The greatest severe threat is expected with discrete cells that
develop along and near the instability axis this afternoon. These
storms will likely become supercellular and be associated with a
tornado threat, large hail and wind damage. RAP forecast soundings
along the instability axis at 20Z across southern Illinois and far
western Kentucky have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1800 J/kg range with 0-6
km shear around 40 knots. 0-6 km shear is forecast to strengthen
markedly during the mid afternoon as the upper-level system pivots
into the region. This will create conditions very favorable for
supercells and tornadoes. 0-3 km storm relative helicity in the 200
to 300 m2/s2 range should support a potential for strong tornadoes.
Supercells will also be capable of large hail and wind damage.
Further west, the squall line along the front should gradually
intensify as instability increases during the afternoon.
Widespread
wind damage appears likely with the more intense parts of the squall
line. Large hail may occur with the stronger cells embedded in the
line. The wind-damage threat will continue into early to mid evening
as the line moves eastward across the lower Ohio Valley, with the
severe threat eventually become more isolated further to the east.



Curious to see how models trend in the morning, could really see a high-end event out of this, the parameter space that is gonna be present is gonna be pretty high-end, now to see if cells can actually take advantage of it and/or if morning convection messes with this.
 

Timhsv

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New day 1 expands Moderate to the north, pretty strong wording in discussion
View attachment 13440
...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely today across a large
part of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley northward into the Midwest,
and lower Ohio Valley. Several tornadoes with some strong,
widespread damaging winds, some of which could be significant, and
large to very large hail will likely occur.

...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward across the
southern and central Plains today, as a 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet
ejects northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. To the
southeast of the mid-level jet, a moist and unstable airmass will be
in place across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A convective
line will likely move eastward across southern Missouri and
northwest Arkansas during the morning. Other storms will develop
during the morning ahead of the line from the Arklatex northeastward
into the mid Mississippi Valley. A severe threat is expected to
develop early in the day, and ramp up quickly during the mid to late
morning as destabilization occurs.

By midday, moderate to strong instability will be in place from
northern Louisiana north-northeastward across eastern Arkansas,
where model forecasts have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range.
The southeastern edge of the mid-level jet will create strong
deep-layer shear across the western edge of the moist and unstable
airmass. RAP forecast soundings across eastern Arkansas into far
southeast Missouri by 20Z show loaded gun soundings with a shallow
capping inversion, 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range, and 0-3
km storm relative helicity of 400 to 500 m2/s2. This should be very
favorable for supercells and tornadoes. Discrete supercells ahead of
the approaching squall-line should have potential for long-track
strong tornadoes. As the low-level jet strengthens during the mid
afternoon across eastern Arkansas, northwest Mississippi and far
western Tennessee, there will be a chance for an EF3+ tornado,
associated with the most dominating storm that occurs.
Supercells
will also be capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Hailstones of 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more
intense supercells. As the squall-line further west organizes and
intensifies, widespread damaging wind gusts will become likely
during the early afternoon. Some wind gusts of over 65 knots may
occur with the more intense and faster moving parts of the line.

The severe threat should continue eastward across western Tennessee
and northern Mississippi during the late afternoon and early
evening, where widespread damaging wind gusts will be likely. The
wind-damage and large hail threat should gradually become more
isolated during the mid to late evening, as the squall-line
encounters weaker instability to the east.

...Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley...
An upper-level low will move east-northeastward across the northern
Plains today as an associated upper-level trough moves through the
central Plains. This trough will take on a negative tilt during the
day as a 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the
mid Mississippi Valley. To the east of the mid-level jet, a corridor
of moderate instability will develop across eastern Missouri and
western Illinois by early afternoon. Thunderstorms will quickly
develop about that time along a cold front further west. These
storms will likely obtain a wind damage and large hail threat as the
convection organizes into a squall line. Severe thunderstorms will
also likely develop ahead of the line during the afternoon, with all
storms merging into a severe MCS by early evening.

The greatest severe threat is expected with discrete cells that
develop along and near the instability axis this afternoon. These
storms will likely become supercellular and be associated with a
tornado threat, large hail and wind damage. RAP forecast soundings
along the instability axis at 20Z across southern Illinois and far
western Kentucky have MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1800 J/kg range with 0-6
km shear around 40 knots. 0-6 km shear is forecast to strengthen
markedly during the mid afternoon as the upper-level system pivots
into the region. This will create conditions very favorable for
supercells and tornadoes. 0-3 km storm relative helicity in the 200
to 300 m2/s2 range should support a potential for strong tornadoes.
Supercells will also be capable of large hail and wind damage.
Further west, the squall line along the front should gradually
intensify as instability increases during the afternoon.
Widespread
wind damage appears likely with the more intense parts of the squall
line. Large hail may occur with the stronger cells embedded in the
line. The wind-damage threat will continue into early to mid evening
as the line moves eastward across the lower Ohio Valley, with the
severe threat eventually become more isolated further to the east.



Curious to see how models trend in the morning, could really see a high-end event out of this, the parameter space that is gonna be present is gonna be pretty high-end, now to see if cells can actually take advantage of it and/or if morning convection messes with this.
Violent day may be coming. I say this with regret. This below is a first time that I've seen SPC use EF potential:**

As the low-level jet strengthens during the mid
afternoon across eastern Arkansas, northwest Mississippi and far
western Tennessee, there will be a chance for an EF3+ tornado,
associated with the most dominating storm that occurs.
 
Last edited:

UK_EF4

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A day or two ago I was thinking that this event would be mainly linear, with a few tornadoes, maybe one or two strong. However now, the paramater space does look very favourable, if not high-end, for Arkansas into Mississippi, which could coincide with a possibly discrete or semi-discrete mode.
 
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A day or two ago I was thinking that this event would be mainly linear, with a few tornadoes, maybe one or two strong. However now, the paramater space does look very favourable, if not high-end, for Arkansas into Mississippi, which could coincide with a possibly discrete or semi-discrete mode.
Yeah this is slowly turning more ugly be honest , se,/Arkansas/ sw tenn/ nw miss. Starting think if once cell can get out alone it’s going go boom. As spc mentioned it’s a loaded gun for the areas mentioned
 
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Violent day may be coming. I say this with regret. This below is a first time that I've seen SPC use EF potential:**

As the low-level jet strengthens during the mid
afternoon across eastern Arkansas, northwest Mississippi and far
western Tennessee, there will be a chance for an EF3+ tornado,
associated with the most dominating storm that occurs.
The only caveat is that the SPC is referring to an isolated EF3+ tornado, suggesting a localised event rather than a widespread, discrete outbreak with multiple EF3+ long-trackers associated with multiple families. Just two to three days ago the setup seemed to favour a widespread outbreak with multiple intense tornadoes associated with multiple families, with the Hatched ≥15% covering most or all of the current 10% tornado probabilities. The overall forcing is still much more linear than it looked to be several days ago, and the scope of the event has narrowed. This event will be significant but not outstanding, and comparable to a lot of recent events that were locally severe but not widespread in regard to multiple discrete, violent families. It seems to be very difficult to get large-scale outbreaks with EF4+ events in multiple families.
 
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Yeah this is slowly turning more ugly be honest , se,/Arkansas/ sw tenn/ nw miss. Starting think if once cell can get out alone it’s going go boom. As spc mentioned it’s a loaded gun for the areas mentioned
“If one cell can get out alone...”

Just copy and paste for a lot of recent events and that’s signature-worthy. Events like Super Tuesday, Easter 2020, and so on seem to have become quite rare.
 
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The only caveat is that the SPC is referring to an isolated EF3+ tornado, suggesting a localised event rather than a widespread, discrete outbreak with multiple EF3+ long-trackers associated with multiple families. Just two to three days ago the setup seemed to favour a widespread outbreak with multiple intense tornadoes associated with multiple families, with the Hatched ≥15% covering most or all of the current 10% tornado probabilities. The overall forcing is still much more linear than it looked to be several days ago, and the scope of the event has narrowed. This event will be significant but not outstanding, and comparable to a lot of recent events that were locally severe but not widespread in regard to multiple discrete, violent families. It seems to be very difficult to get large-scale outbreaks with EF4+ events in multiple families.
Simply to early to say that be honest , not disagreeing but hrrr runs have been more concerning last few runs for. Midsouth . Convection is moving out quickly more than I thought .winds at 500 mb are nearly out west , surface winds out se
 
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Simply to early to say that be honest , not disagreeing but hrrr runs have been more concerning last few runs for. Midsouth . Convection is moving out quickly more than I thought .winds at 500 mb are nearly out west , surface winds out se
Clearly see outflow boundaries already being laid down from the morning convection .
 

Fred Gossage

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Violent day may be coming. I say this with regret. This below is a first time that I've seen SPC use EF potential:**

As the low-level jet strengthens during the mid
afternoon across eastern Arkansas, northwest Mississippi and far
western Tennessee, there will be a chance for an EF3+ tornado,
associated with the most dominating storm that occurs.
Broyles used the exact same phrasing on the 06z Day 1 for March 22nd in Mississippi. The ominously worded 13z Day 1 from Roger Edwards back on March 25, 2021 specifically talked about EF2-EF5 tornadoes being possible. I've recently noticed them saying "EF2+" a lot more in combination with "strong" tornado phrasing too, depending on the forecaster on desk. It seems that it's much more of a thing where they are just making the phrases "strong", "intense", "violent", etc., more relatable to something the general public is a more familiar with.
 
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Broyles used the exact same phrasing on the 06z Day 1 for March 22nd in Mississippi. The ominously worded 13z Day 1 from Roger Edwards back on March 25, 2021 specifically talked about EF2-EF5 tornadoes being possible. I've recently noticed them saying "EF2+" a lot more in combination with "strong" tornado phrasing too, depending on the forecaster on desk. It seems that it's much more of a thing where they are just making the phrases "strong", "intense", "violent", etc., more relatable to something the general public is a more familiar with.
I am getting little concerned for se ark/ sw tn/ nw ms of seeing a real significant tornado or should I even say border violent one long tracker In the conditions these storms have working with . Is that area concern to you Fred ? Currently got southeast surface wind with winds nearly west at 500 mb.. anxious see next day one update and who writes it . Hope Thompson comes in gives his thoughts
 
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Simply to early to say that be honest , not disagreeing but hrrr runs have been more concerning last few runs for. Midsouth . Convection is moving out quickly more than I thought .winds at 500 mb are nearly out west , surface winds out se
I’m sorry, but the material for more than a localised event does not seem to be there. Could we see an intense tornado within the 15%? Yes. Multiple, intense, long-tracked families over a wider area? No.
 

Fred Gossage

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I am getting little concerned for se ark/ sw tn/ nw ms of seeing a real significant tornado or should I even say border violent one long tracker In the conditions these storms have working with . Is that area concern to you Fred ? Currently got southeast surface wind with winds nearly west at 500 mb.. anxious see next day one update and who writes it . Hope Thompson comes in gives his thoughts
I still think there are potential problems with messy convection because of widespread initiation, the potential for a rapid blowup of convection in Louisiana and central/south Mississippi as the stuff in the Delta to the Memphis area is trying to form that may cause issues with the low-level jet, and also the caveat we've had all along... deep-layer shear possibly not being strong enough to organize convection until after things get messy. If the deep-layer shear magnitude is not strong enough to favor supercells before the convection initiates or while it's still very isolated at the beginning of the event, then convection will end up being very messy with unorganized, short-lived updrafts... and that may open the door for this to turn into a big, rainy grunge-fest so that even the prefrontal QLCS underperforms. I'm not really to turn my back on the thing, but I am HIGHLY unconvinced in something higher-end happening later today, even with just one or two storms.
 
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