Statistically I can't say, but, anecdotally, my daughter's elementary school had very few cases during original COVID and Delta. I think we were notified one time pre-Omicron of a potential exposure.
Fast forward to Omicron and we were getting CONSTANT notifications as of last Thursday. By Saturday evening my daughter's teacher sent a message saying numerous students in my daughter's class had recently tested positive, the teacher herself was positive, and that the focus is now on everyone getting healthy and returning as making up assignments right now simply wasn't a possibility.
My daughter's school has done an excellent job throughout COVID. She also has a truly wonderful teacher who my wife and I both love. Extremely accessible via messaging on ClassDojo. Willing to give us recommendations on things my daughter needs help with or things she should focus on. Unquestionably the best teacher my daughter has ever had.
Oh, interestingly enough, my daughter said that basically only a 1/4 of her class was there early this week and several of the kids who were there have already recovered from a recent bout with COVID.
I have no idea what the vax rate is in my daughter's class, but I know my area in general is a pretty good bit BELOW average. So, I would imagine my daughter is one of only a handful of children in her class who is vaccinated (my daughter is 9). As of today, She still has not tested positive for COVID nor has she had any symptoms. My daughter is a bit of a drama queen so if she had symptoms we'd know. She received her 2nd dose of Pfizer in early December. Pretty much perfect timing to withstand the Omicron wave.
My family has been very fortunate thus far. Neither of my children have had COVID, neither my wife nor I have had it, and none of our parents have had it. Everyone is vaccinated. I masked pretty well until April/May of this year. Masked selectively during Delta especially in any crowded stores/events. I have only masked randomly during Omicron in very high risk situations. That said, virtually everyone at work is vaccinated and most of our clients we work on-site with have high vax rates or mandate the vaccine.
We gave our daughter a choice as it pertains to masking. She can wear one if she wants. We have a number of N-95s for her a ton of kid-sized surgical masks. I'd say she probably masks 50-75% of the time at school but I'm not there so I can't say for sure. We've told her it is entirely her choice, we but did recommend she do so during her return to school in January as our expectation has been that Omicron should be receding sharply in Alabama very soon. I told her if she could make it a few weeks it might help her. We still let it be her decision, though. Her school system had mandatory masks during Delta. She doesn't wear it during PE/lunch so I doubt it is really doing all that much except for maybe preventing spread if she was every asymptomatically positive.
My son generally does not wear a mask unless we go somewhere it is required. I'm sure most people can imagine how long that requirement gets followed by a 4 year old. He'll be getting the vaccine right after his 5th birthday at the end of February. I do wonder if he's already had Omicron asymptomatically. If things are calmed down on the testing front by then we may get him tested for antibodies first if his doctor agrees to do so. More out of curiosity than anything else.
I knew as soon as I pressed submit on this post that I would be tempting fate.
12 hours after I made that post I developed symptoms of COVID (1AM Friday morning). Based off the symptoms alone I was 99% sure it was COVID.
I definitely wanted to swab myself all day yesterday. It helped hold me off that I felt so terrible. Pounding, skull-shattering headache, chills, fever, and congestion. All that made it to where I didn't want to even move, so swabbing my nose was very very very low on my priorities list.
Biggest mistake I made was not making sure I took some Ibuprofen every 4-6 hours. That was the only thing that made the symptoms tolerable -- especially the headache and fever -- but I was sick enough that keep tracking of time wasn't super easy.
The chills were incredible. I'm a very hot natured person. We keep the heat on 68-69 during the winter unless it's below 25 degrees in which case we might bump it to 70. I had the heat on 76 yesterday and put a full down comforter on top of our usual heavy winter one.
That led to the next bit of COVID fun which seems very specific to Omicron. Drenching night sweats. I woke up 3-4 times and had to move to a different part of the bed, change clothes, and temporarily remove the extra comforter. I would stop having the drenching sweats until I woke up with my teeth chattering from chills. Rinse and repeat all night.
Yesterday was miserable. Finally, about 8am today I felt better. That also coincided with 24 hours+ from onset of symptoms. Perfect time to do a rapid antigen test. The test line turned positive before the fluid mix even reached the control line. We're talking just a few seconds and it was already a BRIGHT positive. I read it again at the suggested 10 minute interval, and, obviously, it was still just as positive.
Everything I've read from Michael Mina is that within 0-12 hours of symptom onset it is unlikely you will test positive. He just tested positive himself 5 days ago, and within the 0-12 hour interval all of his tests were negative. After 24 hours he received an immediate positive.
So, if you have rapid tests and start to experience any symptoms, I think the best thing you can do is isolate once symptoms begin and take a rapid test as soon as you hit 24 hours from symptom onset. There's simply too much evidence at this point to use rapid tests any other way.