Severe WX December 31, 2021 - January 1, 2022 Severe Threat

I live right on the south side of the city of Cullman, so I’ve been watching it for a while now
It looks like it is going to dissipate,, but something we should continue to watch.
 
00z CAMs are a problem overnight for AL, especially central AL.
 
00z CAMs are a problem overnight for AL, especially central AL.
I was just about to say, I know some aren't impressed by the soundings, but the HRRR is still showing some definite UH streaks.

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I was just about to say, I know some aren't impressed by the soundings, but the HRRR is still showing some definite UH streaks.

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Seems like the HRRR has been a bit overly bullish for this event, though.

It was overly bullish about the potential for supercells in central AL yesterday. I know we had the one tornado in DeKalb County, but if you bought what the HRRR was showing, you would have thought we’d have seen more than just that.
 
Seems like the HRRR has been a bit overly bullish for this event, though.

It was overly bullish about the potential for supercells in central AL yesterday. I know we had the one tornado in DeKalb County, but if you bought what the HRRR was showing, you would have thought we’d have seen more than just that.
True, but the rest of the CAMs seem to agree with it for the most part.
 
Seems like the HRRR has been a bit overly bullish for this event, though.

It was overly bullish about the potential for supercells in central AL yesterday. I know we had the one tornado in DeKalb County, but if you bought what the HRRR was showing, you would have thought we’d have seen more than just that.
It happens. But you never know until it happens. Better to be over-prepared than under.
 
If I were in Dekalb or Jackson counties near that storm, I would be taking cover.
 
And there it is. Tornado Warning
 
TOR in NW GA.

 
Convection is definitely on the upswing across west central AL, and surely the cap will weaken as the midlevels cool a bit (not to mention increased forcing as the line gets here) so would not be surprised to see isolated cells overnight, but will have to see if surface winds can remain southerly as veering back to the southwest would work at least somewhat against storm mode if we want to take advantage of the low level shear for a major tornado threat

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Wow low level shear is absolutely absurd for anything that manages to get going here, RAP showing 400+ 0-1km srh, really hope updrafts do not get established but those showers are going 10-15+kft locally which might be enough to be interesting

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Will be watching surface winds at Tuscaloosa and Jasper closely, if they start to back any and these showers start getting lightning or showing signs they're above the cap then we definitely might have a few problems. Southern Fayette cell is over 55dbz and 20kft echo top height, we might have some cooling aloft sneaking in (or better forcing)
 
SPC issued MD, says uptick in activity in central AL a possibility that should be monitored.
 
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