- Moderator
- #381
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
vegaseagle
Posted 26 April 2011 - 12:54 AM
Ok, thanks you all
Posted 26 April 2011 - 12:54 AM
Ok, thanks you all
-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011
- Thread starter MichelleH
- Start date
-
- Tags
- april 27 2011 tw archive
- Moderator
- #382
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
SWL
Posted 26 April 2011 - 01:05 AM
Posted 26 April 2011 - 01:05 AM
- Moderator
- #383
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
weatherguy
Posted 26 April 2011 - 01:06 AM
New day2:
Posted 26 April 2011 - 01:06 AM
New day2:
- Moderator
- #384
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
SWL
Posted 26 April 2011 - 01:25 AM
This looks familiar...
<<image not saved>>
Edited by andyhb, 28 December 2012 - 04:58 PM.
Posted 26 April 2011 - 01:25 AM
This looks familiar...
<<image not saved>>
Edited by andyhb, 28 December 2012 - 04:58 PM.
- Moderator
- #385
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
TimHSV
Posted 26 April 2011 - 01:39 AM
There is that day, very seldom that occurs for those who, year in and year out through your weather life, that you study, analyze, prepair, and you anticipate, regardless of how much you dread it and the atmospheric violence you know that may just actually occur. Unless something DRASTICALLY changes, ...Wednesday looks to be..That Day. Gods speed to all my TW friends.
Edited by andyhb, 28 December 2012 - 04:57 PM.
Posted 26 April 2011 - 01:39 AM
There is that day, very seldom that occurs for those who, year in and year out through your weather life, that you study, analyze, prepair, and you anticipate, regardless of how much you dread it and the atmospheric violence you know that may just actually occur. Unless something DRASTICALLY changes, ...Wednesday looks to be..That Day. Gods speed to all my TW friends.
Edited by andyhb, 28 December 2012 - 04:57 PM.
- Moderator
- #386
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
Harlequhn_Boy
Posted 26 April 2011 - 01:45 AM
Interestingly, Arkansas has never had an actual documented F5/EF5, although I am certain some occurred in the 20th century. I personally doubt we see our first Arkansas EF5 from this. Vilonia should have well-constructed homes of respectable structural integrity since it's a growing, fairly suburban area.
The new Day 1 is pretty similar to what we just went through. It leaves room to upgrade to HIGH later, actually.
Posted 26 April 2011 - 01:45 AM
Interestingly, Arkansas has never had an actual documented F5/EF5, although I am certain some occurred in the 20th century. I personally doubt we see our first Arkansas EF5 from this. Vilonia should have well-constructed homes of respectable structural integrity since it's a growing, fairly suburban area.
The new Day 1 is pretty similar to what we just went through. It leaves room to upgrade to HIGH later, actually.
- Moderator
- #387
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
SWL
Posted 26 April 2011 - 01:08 AM
***POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT --
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OUTBREAK -- REMAINS EVIDENT
THIS FORECAST...CENTERED ON THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY AREA.***
SOME QUESTIONS EXIST ATTM WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS
PERIOD...CENTERED AROUND THE ONGOING STORMS PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING
ACROSS ERN AR AND INTO WRN TN/NRN MS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
WHILE THE COVERAGE AND PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION COULD HAVE
EFFECTS ON TIMING/LOCATION OF LATER DAY STORMS AS WELL AS THE
QUALITY OF AIRMASS IN SOME AREAS...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT EARLY STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS THROUGH THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY WEAKENING SOME WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...AS HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER FEATURE AND AWAY FROM ANY
CONVECTIVELY-COOLED AREAS...STORM REINTENSIFICATION AND NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO 80 TO 100
KT FROM THE SW AT MID LEVELS WILL PROVIDE SHEAR HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
VERY INTENSE/LONG-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THIS -- COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF
SIGNIFICANT LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND -- DEPENDING UPON STORM MODE --
THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD/VERY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS
TN/KY/NRN MS AND NRN AND CENTRAL AL...
Edited by SWL, 26 April 2011 - 01:11 AM.
Posted 26 April 2011 - 01:08 AM
***POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT --
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OUTBREAK -- REMAINS EVIDENT
THIS FORECAST...CENTERED ON THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY AREA.***
SOME QUESTIONS EXIST ATTM WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS
PERIOD...CENTERED AROUND THE ONGOING STORMS PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING
ACROSS ERN AR AND INTO WRN TN/NRN MS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
WHILE THE COVERAGE AND PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION COULD HAVE
EFFECTS ON TIMING/LOCATION OF LATER DAY STORMS AS WELL AS THE
QUALITY OF AIRMASS IN SOME AREAS...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT EARLY STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS THROUGH THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY WEAKENING SOME WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...AS HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER FEATURE AND AWAY FROM ANY
CONVECTIVELY-COOLED AREAS...STORM REINTENSIFICATION AND NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO 80 TO 100
KT FROM THE SW AT MID LEVELS WILL PROVIDE SHEAR HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
VERY INTENSE/LONG-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THIS -- COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF
SIGNIFICANT LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND -- DEPENDING UPON STORM MODE --
THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD/VERY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS
TN/KY/NRN MS AND NRN AND CENTRAL AL...
Edited by SWL, 26 April 2011 - 01:11 AM.
- Moderator
- #388
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
MichelleH
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:17 AM
Nice post about Tuesday and Wednesday by Dr. Tim Coleman on ABC 33/40's weather blog:
ABC 33/40 weather blog
Edited by andyhb, 28 December 2012 - 05:01 PM.
Posted 26 April 2011 - 02:17 AM
Nice post about Tuesday and Wednesday by Dr. Tim Coleman on ABC 33/40's weather blog:
ABC 33/40 weather blog
Edited by andyhb, 28 December 2012 - 05:01 PM.
- Moderator
- #389
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
weatherguy
Posted 26 April 2011 - 05:02 AM
Wow I just looked and saw the 00z GFS EHI is 9.1 for here in NW AL at 1pm Wed. Crazy high.
Posted 26 April 2011 - 05:02 AM
Wow I just looked and saw the 00z GFS EHI is 9.1 for here in NW AL at 1pm Wed. Crazy high.
- Moderator
- #390
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
ARCC
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:11 AM
Tell that to the Americus, GA tornado.
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:11 AM
Tell that to the Americus, GA tornado.
- Moderator
- #391
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
RollTide18
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:13 AM
This is worrying...this is not your normal outbreak. There is a real high chance of tornadoes this may rival (or bigger) super tuesday or 4/15.
Posted 26 April 2011 - 06:13 AM
This is worrying...this is not your normal outbreak. There is a real high chance of tornadoes this may rival (or bigger) super tuesday or 4/15.
- Moderator
- #392
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
smokedevil
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:08 AM
As tim said, unless things change, this could be one folks talk about for years. I wouldn't be surprised to see several large tors on the ground at the same time either.
Edited by smokedevil, 26 April 2011 - 07:09 AM.
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:08 AM
As tim said, unless things change, this could be one folks talk about for years. I wouldn't be surprised to see several large tors on the ground at the same time either.
Edited by smokedevil, 26 April 2011 - 07:09 AM.
- Moderator
- #393
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
bingcrosbyb
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:38 AM
Rumor on the chats is a HIGH RISK is coming in the Day 1 Update.
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:38 AM
Rumor on the chats is a HIGH RISK is coming in the Day 1 Update.
- Moderator
- #394
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
trency911
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:40 AM
FFC:
Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
759 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2011
...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD...HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED VIGOROUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH INTO THE PARENT LOW CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THU...AT WHICH POINT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY
SHIFT NE OF OUR REGION. WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY EACH
OF THESE WAVES. THE FIRST WAVE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID TN VALLEY
INTO THE MID-SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS/QLCS WILL REACH FAR NW GA
AROUND 12Z...BUT LIKELY IN A GREATLY WEAKENED FASHION. GREATER
CONCERN IS THAT LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING COMBINED WITH STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...CAPES 1000-2000
J/KG ACROSS N GA...WILL RESULT IN SCT REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN
THE 4000 J/KG CAPES AND LIS OF -8C OBSERVED MON AFTERNOON THAT
KINDLED DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL...UPPER DYNAMICS ARE SOMEWHAT
BETTER...ESPECIALLY IN NW GA...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 45 KTS. SPC
CONTINUES WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS CERTAINLY APPEARS REASONABLE.
MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS AGAIN TODAY WOULD BE LARGE
HAIL...LIGHTNING...AND DAMAGING WINDS. AFTER THIS...OUR ATTENTION
MOVES TOWARD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED...WHEN THE NEXT WAVE OF
STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION...AGAIN IN THE FORM OF A QLCS...WILL FOLLOW
A SIMILAR TRACK ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-SOUTH. THE BIG QUESTION
HERE IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL EACH NW GA AOB 12Z WED...AND IF SO
WILL IT BE SEVERE. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS IS SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM/SREF. EVEN THE FASTEST GFS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL JUST
REACH NW GA AROUND 12Z WED. THIS REDUCES THE THREAT OF AN EARLY
MORNING SEVERE QLCS IN NW GA EARLY WED...BUT IT IS NOT ZERO. BULK
SHEAR OF 50KTS ALONG WITH A 60KT LLJ SKIRTING FAR NW GA AND EARLY
MORNING CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD
TORNADOES ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NW GA COUNTIES
EARLY WED. FINALLY...THE BIG SHOW COMES IN THE 18Z WED - 06Z THU
PERIOD WHEN ALL PARAMETERS ALIGN ALMOST PERFECTLY FOR A MAJOR SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING CONVECTION MAY PUSH THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SEVERE MORE INTO NE/NC/WC GA AND POINTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. DURING THIS PERIOD...ALL FACETS OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE WITH BOTH SUPERCELL AND MULTI-CELL
CONVECTIVE MODE POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. SPC
CONTINUES TO CARRY THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN A MODERATE RISK...WITH
THE REMAINDER IN A SLIGHT RISK.
ANOTHER CONCERN...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW GA...IS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO/ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 6-HR FFG VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 3.0
INCH RANGE ACROSS THIS PART OF THE STATE. RECENT EVENTS HAVE PUSHED
LOOKOUT CREEK INTO FLOOD...AND CREEKS/STREAMS IN THAT PART OF THE
STATE REMAIN HIGH FROM REPEATED RECENT SPRING RAIN EVENTS.
HENCE...2-3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE AT LEAST ISOLATED
PROBLEMS IN THIS AREAS. HPC QPF TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS NW GA NEAR 2.0
INCHES. AT THIS POINT...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH AND INSTEAD
REISSUE THE ESF STARTED YESTERDAY. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THIS AREA...A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NW
CORNER WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE WED
MORNING...POSSIBLY SOONER.
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:40 AM
FFC:
Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
759 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2011
...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD...HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED VIGOROUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH INTO THE PARENT LOW CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THU...AT WHICH POINT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY
SHIFT NE OF OUR REGION. WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY EACH
OF THESE WAVES. THE FIRST WAVE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE MID TN VALLEY
INTO THE MID-SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS/QLCS WILL REACH FAR NW GA
AROUND 12Z...BUT LIKELY IN A GREATLY WEAKENED FASHION. GREATER
CONCERN IS THAT LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING COMBINED WITH STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...CAPES 1000-2000
J/KG ACROSS N GA...WILL RESULT IN SCT REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN
THE 4000 J/KG CAPES AND LIS OF -8C OBSERVED MON AFTERNOON THAT
KINDLED DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL...UPPER DYNAMICS ARE SOMEWHAT
BETTER...ESPECIALLY IN NW GA...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 45 KTS. SPC
CONTINUES WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS CERTAINLY APPEARS REASONABLE.
MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS AGAIN TODAY WOULD BE LARGE
HAIL...LIGHTNING...AND DAMAGING WINDS. AFTER THIS...OUR ATTENTION
MOVES TOWARD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED...WHEN THE NEXT WAVE OF
STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION...AGAIN IN THE FORM OF A QLCS...WILL FOLLOW
A SIMILAR TRACK ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-SOUTH. THE BIG QUESTION
HERE IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL EACH NW GA AOB 12Z WED...AND IF SO
WILL IT BE SEVERE. OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS IS SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ESPECIALLY THE
NAM/SREF. EVEN THE FASTEST GFS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL JUST
REACH NW GA AROUND 12Z WED. THIS REDUCES THE THREAT OF AN EARLY
MORNING SEVERE QLCS IN NW GA EARLY WED...BUT IT IS NOT ZERO. BULK
SHEAR OF 50KTS ALONG WITH A 60KT LLJ SKIRTING FAR NW GA AND EARLY
MORNING CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD
TORNADOES ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NW GA COUNTIES
EARLY WED. FINALLY...THE BIG SHOW COMES IN THE 18Z WED - 06Z THU
PERIOD WHEN ALL PARAMETERS ALIGN ALMOST PERFECTLY FOR A MAJOR SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED MORNING CONVECTION MAY PUSH THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SEVERE MORE INTO NE/NC/WC GA AND POINTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. DURING THIS PERIOD...ALL FACETS OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE WITH BOTH SUPERCELL AND MULTI-CELL
CONVECTIVE MODE POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. SPC
CONTINUES TO CARRY THE NW PART OF THE CWA IN A MODERATE RISK...WITH
THE REMAINDER IN A SLIGHT RISK.
ANOTHER CONCERN...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW GA...IS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO/ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 6-HR FFG VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 3.0
INCH RANGE ACROSS THIS PART OF THE STATE. RECENT EVENTS HAVE PUSHED
LOOKOUT CREEK INTO FLOOD...AND CREEKS/STREAMS IN THAT PART OF THE
STATE REMAIN HIGH FROM REPEATED RECENT SPRING RAIN EVENTS.
HENCE...2-3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE AT LEAST ISOLATED
PROBLEMS IN THIS AREAS. HPC QPF TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS NW GA NEAR 2.0
INCHES. AT THIS POINT...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH AND INSTEAD
REISSUE THE ESF STARTED YESTERDAY. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THIS AREA...A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NW
CORNER WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE WED
MORNING...POSSIBLY SOONER.
- Moderator
- #395
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
bingcrosbyb
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:41 AM
HIGH RISK OUT!
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:41 AM
HIGH RISK OUT!
- Moderator
- #396
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
Vorticity
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:41 AM
And there it is....
SPC AC 261234
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FOR NE TX...FAR SE OK...EXTREME NW LA...AND THE SRN HALF OF
AR...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...FROM
NE TX/SE OK TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN A BROAD SWATH FROM THE SRN
PLAINS EWD/NEWD TO THE MS/OH VALLEYS AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
...DANGEROUS TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NE TX ENEWD TO THE MS RIVER...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO/IL WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARD LOWER
MI TODAY...WHILE AN INTENSE UPSTREAM JET STREAK PROGRESSES ESEWD TO
THE SRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. MORNING SUBSIDENCE OVER AR /IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING WAVE/ WILL BE REPLACED BY ASCENT BEGINNING ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N TX/SRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING
EWD THIS EVENING INTO SE OK/NE TX AND SRN AR OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THIS SAME CORRIDOR IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
90-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET. THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRENGTHENING SLY/SSWLY LLJ FROM THE ARKLATEX TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...RICH BOUNDARY
Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:41 AM
And there it is....
SPC AC 261234
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FOR NE TX...FAR SE OK...EXTREME NW LA...AND THE SRN HALF OF
AR...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...FROM
NE TX/SE OK TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN A BROAD SWATH FROM THE SRN
PLAINS EWD/NEWD TO THE MS/OH VALLEYS AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
...DANGEROUS TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NE TX ENEWD TO THE MS RIVER...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO/IL WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARD LOWER
MI TODAY...WHILE AN INTENSE UPSTREAM JET STREAK PROGRESSES ESEWD TO
THE SRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. MORNING SUBSIDENCE OVER AR /IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING WAVE/ WILL BE REPLACED BY ASCENT BEGINNING ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N TX/SRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING
EWD THIS EVENING INTO SE OK/NE TX AND SRN AR OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THIS SAME CORRIDOR IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
90-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET. THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRENGTHENING SLY/SSWLY LLJ FROM THE ARKLATEX TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...RICH BOUNDARY
- Moderator
- #397
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
Charles Loring
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:07 AM
Early this morning, around 2 am, we had severe storms move into the BG area. For 20 minutes, we had wind gusts over 40 mph and topped at 50 mph per mesonet. Trees were reported down all across the county. I have never seen winds this strong stay sustained like this for this long a time period. Last time I can remember winds/gusts being this strong for so long...was back when the remnants of Katrina moved over.
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:07 AM
Early this morning, around 2 am, we had severe storms move into the BG area. For 20 minutes, we had wind gusts over 40 mph and topped at 50 mph per mesonet. Trees were reported down all across the county. I have never seen winds this strong stay sustained like this for this long a time period. Last time I can remember winds/gusts being this strong for so long...was back when the remnants of Katrina moved over.
- Moderator
- #398
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
bingcrosbyb
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:09 AM
Arkansas death toll up to 7.
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:09 AM
Arkansas death toll up to 7.
- Moderator
- #399
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
rlsrlj
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:11 AM
<<image not saved>>
WOW that's impressive...and a fairly large area too. I admit that I haven't looked at SREF very long so I am not sure how that compares to past events. Thanks for posting.
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:11 AM
<<image not saved>>
WOW that's impressive...and a fairly large area too. I admit that I haven't looked at SREF very long so I am not sure how that compares to past events. Thanks for posting.
- Moderator
- #400
- Messages
- 2,028
- Reaction score
- 23
bingcrosbyb
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:13 AM
Good grief. This is the kind of stuff last seen in April '98. It's been a long time since we've had a beast like this one on our hands. I hate dramatizing things, but what do you do when all of the parameters point towards multiple large tornadoes on the ground at the same time? I hope everyone has told friends & family about the upcoming event. Make sure you also know your company tornado plan.
Edited by bingcrosbyb, 26 April 2011 - 08:18 AM.
Posted 26 April 2011 - 08:13 AM
Good grief. This is the kind of stuff last seen in April '98. It's been a long time since we've had a beast like this one on our hands. I hate dramatizing things, but what do you do when all of the parameters point towards multiple large tornadoes on the ground at the same time? I hope everyone has told friends & family about the upcoming event. Make sure you also know your company tornado plan.
Edited by bingcrosbyb, 26 April 2011 - 08:18 AM.