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Severe WX Severe Threat 25 March 2021

I do think the intensity and widespread nature of this morning convection may throw a curve ball into expectations. Not saying it diminishes the risk but perhaps shifts it/enhances it in some locales.

I don’t recall a single model have this level of widespread convection. But the key is, we are still destabilizing in the face of this at least in Central MS/AL.
 
I am afraid these fairly intense storms we are experiencing in north AL right now are going to lay some boundaries for the afternoon storms. Reminds me of that storm system of how the event evolved. Asssuming this round of morning storms clears out and nothing forms behind it. Fingers crossed I am dead wrong.
 
Smokedevil said:
The thing is, if it busts ( in your opinion ), then post that after the fact, not before.
Some people reading this forum know very little about weather, and if some people start posting "I think it may Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency" they might believe it, and instead of getting out of that mobile home and going somewhere safer, they stay put and get hit later.
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I don't have a problem with people posting about potential (or realized, once the event is already underway) failure modes, if they share their reasoning. I DO have a problem with calling "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency" without making any effort to back it up with evidence; or doing so before the "main event" has even started.

That said, I do not believe today will "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency" by any stretch of the imagination. I feel confident saying that.
 
Hope the flooding subsides quickly and doesn't block escape routes of anyone chasing today.
 
The sun is coming out here in the ATL Metro.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I don't have a problem with people posting about potential (or realized, once the event is already underway) failure modes, if they share their reasoning. I DO have a problem with calling "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency" without making any effort to back it up with evidence; or doing so before the "main event" has even started.

That said, I do not believe today will "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency" by any stretch of the imagination. I feel confident saying that.
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I think this is fair. We've always asked people to back up their posts. Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency posts just to post a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency is actually the subject of the latest updates for posting in active severe weather threads. Here is the link in case anyone missed it. We really like the after storm analysis but those posts without backing it up with data during the storm is disruptive and distracting. Especially if there are active warnings at that moment.

https://talkweather.com/threads/posting-guidelines-during-severe-events.1235/

Likewise, responding to those posts in a severe weather event with snarky responses is equally disruptive and just makes mods have to work harder to remove the content. If you feel it violates our policies, report it and we will review it.
 
New SPC MD. Tornado Watch coming soon.
 
Some important things to note on mesoanalysis, regarding the heavy convection over central AL this morning and subsequent destabilization

sfc10.PNG

Surface obs show clearing over SW MS, with a couple 73/73 down in the SW corner; note 70/68 at Tuscaloosa even with the heavy convection in place all morning; also note composite radar which shows convection not building behind the state line storms... concerning imo

3kcape.PNG

Massive reservoir of instability (and 3k+ surface CAPE) is just across the state line and that's advecting this way rather quickly, on strong southerly surface winds, it's 10am and there is a LOT of time for that scary environment to fill in after this current line heads out

Worth noting also that the storms that crossed the state line mentioned in the mesoscale discussion are entering an environment still laden with extremely high shear immediately behind the warm front (effective SRH ~600) which could pose a surprise early threat if they really get rooted in the environment ahead of the clearing
 
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