gangstonc
Member
Convection getting in the way of the warm front and stabilizing things
Junk convection in the warm sector is almost always a concern.
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Current Tropical Systems Melissa
Severe WX Severe Threat 25 March 2021
- Thread starter MattPetrulli
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- severe wx
Junk convection in the warm sector is almost always a concern.
Kory
Member
The euro is showing a lot of convection in the warm sector on the 06z run. I’ve noticed it tends to “over-convect” down along the coast a lot with these set ups. But, there is notable upper jet diffluence over the warm sector (particularly North AL, North MS) which may mean more convection with the cleaner warm sector placed south.
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MattPetrulli
Member
Even with junk convection with the big dynamics and thermodynamics at play here, still probably gonna get at least a few strong tors somewhere.
I am not convinced the warm sector will clean out...for one, in most recent runs, the amount of time is limited for that to happen. I could be wrong, we will see.
Kory
Member
It’s more of where the northern cut off is. Even last April with the Easter event, that was a junky warm sector that still managed to produce long tracking strong/violent tornadoes.
Yes, it don't need the whole warm sector cleaned out to have a violent tornado. The things that can happen on a whole cleaned out 3000CAPE/60KT LLJ warm sector will be just unimagiable.
True, but they tend to be more long tracked with an open warm sector for obvious reasons
TornadoFan
Member
:/
kcyalater
Member
I think there is a pretty decent chance the modeled convection is a wet blanket here. The amount of moisture is significant
Liberty4dayz
Member
So, if I'm reading that right. Seeing as I live outside Chattanooga in the valley...I shouldn't worry so much about living in a newer model manufactured home? The worst action will stay west and south?
Kory
Member
I would be weather aware tomorrow. These storms do not know outlook boundaries.
Kory
Member
There is also a stronger EML that may prevent the junkier convection that was seen last Wednesday. And unlike the last trough which was moving due east overtop, this one is glancing by NW with smaller height falls. It is digging quite far south so it is tapping the subtropical jet...higher PWATS.
NorthGaWeather
Member
Even though I don't like to champion individual runs of a model, the 12z HRRR does a decent job of cleaning out the warm sector across much of MS/AL with capping (more pronounced in MS/West AL) through the late morning/early afternoon. After 18z, all hell breaks loose.
NorthGaWeather
Member
Even though higher probabilities are to your south and west, there is still potential for significant severe weather to affect your area. Just have a plan of action in place in case you're placed under a watch/warning tomorrow.
That's a spicy meatball.
CheeselandSkies
Member
For what it's worth, seems like it has been much more consistent with long-tracking, high-end (reds and purples) UH streaks than it was prior to last Wednesday. Of course the number and exact placement has varied from run to run but that's the general theme.
Yes, last wednesday never shows many UH streaks until last 12 hours or so. The storm mode never being depicted like this if I remember it correctly. Certainly many things can change in next 36 hours, but it is definitely concerning at this point.
Bama Ravens
Member
What I posted is specific to the area covered by the National Weather Service in Birmingham. Plus, this is an outdated forecast discussion now.
The 12z nam trends a little closer to euro and gfs with stronger low and little further south. Also, shows very little time between morning rain/leftover clouds and afternoon storms firing. Volatile environment, just not sure I completely believe it as morning rain is slow to leave with little clearing, in any.