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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/5/17-4/6/17

Xenesthis said:
Bama your thoughts?
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Like Kory said, placement is key. If you take the 00z 3km NAM verbatim, the storms don't really get going and become really tornadic until they get well into east AL. Unfortunately, it's hard to really nail down placement or where storms will initialize until they start forming. I think long-track tornadoes is a very plausible solution for somewhere, it is just a matter of where.
 
Until the warm front moves front and starts flaring, we the HRRR and WRF won't have an idea what's actually going to happen with the first wave, which sets the tone for the entire event.
 
stebo said:
Don't envy the position you guys are in down there, I can't even imagine having to forecast for tomorrow with every weather model saying something different at this point.
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It is highly unusual for an event to be this close and the models still be this scattered.
 
warneagle said:
So is there too much uncertainty for SPC to justify going high risk?
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I don't think we will see a high risk. Seems like a lot of uncertainty. To be honest, I think this threat is being overblown a bit, at least in my part of Alabama on social media. This is a pretty routine spring threat and schools/offices are closing left and right. I just don't see this being a big time event. Will there be severe weather? Almost certainly. Tornadoes? Pretty likely. And it is good that the public is paying attention... but I just don't see any real reason to change your standard day to day plans. If, say, the NASCAR race were going on at Talladega tomorrow and there were 200,000 people out in the open without shelter... then yeah, you need to plan ahead a bit more. But for those of us working 9 to 5s indoors... let's just have a way to get the warnings and get on with our lives.
 
sak said:
I don't think we will see a high risk. Seems like a lot of uncertainty. To be honest, I think this threat is being overblown a bit, at least in my part of Alabama on social media. This is a pretty routine spring threat and schools/offices are closing left and right. I just don't see this being a big time event. Will there be severe weather? Almost certainly. Tornadoes? Pretty likely. And it is good that the public is paying attention... but I just don't see any real reason to change your standard day to day plans. If, say, the NASCAR race were going on at Talladega tomorrow and there were 200,000 people out in the open without shelter... then yeah, you need to plan ahead a bit more. But for those of us working 9 to 5s indoors... let's just have a way to get the warnings and get on with our lives.
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I think the concern is having people, busses on the road when a storm is coming through... Since it's an all day event it affects both ends of the commute for schools, work, etc. Regardless of the finer points, this will likely be a historic severe weather event for east AL/ GA, possibly even NC/SC and beyond.

You can't have capes, helicities, dewpoints, and sigtor values like they are and not have some sort of outbreak. Will it be extreme? Maybe not, but it's still going to be a large, wide spread, long lasting event, definitely not a normal spring event. Not something we've seen in several years.
 
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