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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/5/17-4/6/17

Jacob said:
I think you guys are overthinking it in this particular case. The HRRR showed that area of no-cape in east AL and parts of GA because that's where it had the morning storms located.
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That or under thinking it because I know for a fact one of us forgot to look at reflectivity.
 
Jacob said:
I think you guys are overthinking it in this particular case. The HRRR showed that area of no-cape in east AL and parts of GA because that's where it had the morning storms located.

refcmp.us_state_vse.png
crossover.us_state_vse.png
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This is a good point, and I do agree that's a big factor. But there was also a marked difference before the precip made it into that little nook in N. GA. I believe the AL part was due to precip, but the other area has something else as well. Perhaps I am reading too much into what GSP said about a wedge on the NAM.
 
ARCC said:
That or under thinking it because I know for a fact one of us forgot to look at reflectivity.
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It explains the Eastern AL stuff, and I plead guilty to not having thought of looking for convection before making a comment about Eastern AL. So, I'm just going to wait for afternoon HRRR runs and stop looking for mitigating factors. Heh.
 
I still feel that some of these cells will make it into southern middle TN. What do you all think?
 
Latest 3k NAM doesn't really get the second round together much across AL, but really hammers Tennessee and Kentucky.
uh25_max.us_state_vse.png
 
MikeP said:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C8nVvJ3XcAQPP2Z.jpg:large
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Nowith I'm gonna confess something about these maps, they are 2-5km updraft helicity. That means they could be good ways off the ground. So it could very well happen we have an outbreak of Supercells that have great signatures yet never make it to the ground. BMX mentioned that earlier and we have seen it happen before.

I'll try to take a look at the 1-4km UH maps when the HRRR gets close in range.
 
its not as unstable and cape values take awhile to creep up into Central Al. Nothing really gets going on the dry line in MS, the helicity is displaced from the cape. Still potential in East Al but man it looks a lot different.

Im off to bed.. lets see what it looks like in the morning.
 
darkskys25 said:
its not as unstable and cape values take awhile to creep up into Central Al. Nothing really gets going on the dry line in MS, the helicity is displaced from the cape. Still potential in East Al but man it looks a lot different.

Im off to bed.. lets see what it looks like in the morning.
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Well, if the 3K NAM verifies then a lot of areas previously thought to be under the gun simply won't be.

Adds a huge amount of uncertainty. Basically not much in Western AL and a major shift from thoughts earlier today.
 
The capes stay low in north GA, but the 3-0KM helicities are off the charts.... I bet the capes stay -apparently- low because the continual storminess, but with the amount of shear going on... I'm not sure they'll need much to go tornadic... There's still basically 4 different 'waves' of storms that cross north GA on the WRF. 8AM, 11AM, 3PM, and 11PM.
 
So who is buying the 3KM NAM?
 
Kory said:
The idea of longer track supercells is there still on the NAM. It's a matter of placement which I still don't think ANY model has a handle on.
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Kory what does your intuition and knowledge tell you? I am really curious if you had to make an educated guess
 
Kory said:
The idea of longer track supercells is there still on the NAM. It's a matter of placement which I still don't think ANY model has a handle on.
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This. Where storms initialize and really get going will be the key for determining where the greatest tornado threat areas. Further east they initialize, the further east they will be before they really get going and produce something.
 
Bama Ravens said:
This. Where storms initialize and really get going will be the key for determining where the greatest tornado threat areas. Further east they initialize, the further east they will be before they really get going and produce something.
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Bama your thoughts?
 
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