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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/5/17-4/6/17

Evan said:
I'm sure you saw that patch of 6-7 SIGTOR over Tallapoosa and Clay with convection to go along with it. Godspeed tomorrow for those in that area.
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I expect a large area that has issues with long track tornadoes... Hopefully something causes this even to be marginalized
 
Xenesthis said:
I bet they have to shift some of the risk areas substantially. Especially if CAD holds.. wonder how that will impact the event
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Doesn't look like a CAD to me. Winds are from the south at KGVL by 1PM tomorrow on the HRRR. Large area of high EHIs moving in the last few frames with instability expanding pretty quick. Late afternoon/evening is the prime time anyways so I don't see anything from it (yet) to discount a big threat.
 
HRRR looking slightly different @ 13:00ET from WRF

lslhIW7.gif
 
I'll be working in the ER tomorrow and we've been working on our disaster procedures. We had a drill last week with a "tornado" on Redstone arsenal. Hopefully we won't have to implement the disaster plan but if we do we'll be ready. EMA is on top of this thing and so is HEMSI.
 
Evan said:
The NAM was showing a wedge earlier leading to stabilization in N GA, and it looked like it filtered over into a small portion of E. AL. The HRRR appeared to be showing the same thing in the same time period. Are you saying that area of N. GA and the NE part of AL was seeing the reduced CAPE and surface temps due to the mesolow?
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No I think you are correct about that. However in the HRRR run with no cape over eastern AL you could see the surface reflection on the meso low in SLP. Now whether or not the cape, temp and dp was lower or that was a model mess up due to the change in wind direction, I don't know. But mesolows are deadly here.
 
ARCC said:
No I think you are correct about that. However in the HRRR run with no cape over eastern AL you could see the surface reflection on the meso low in SLP. Now whether or not the cape, temp and dp was lower or that was a model mess up due to the change in wind direction, I don't know. But mesolows are deadly here.
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I think you guys are overthinking it in this particular case. The HRRR showed that area of no-cape in east AL and parts of GA because that's where it had the morning storms located.

refcmp.us_state_vse.png
crossover.us_state_vse.png
 
00Z HRRR has 2000 J CAPE into much of metro Atlanta by 16Z, then rising even higher. I wouldn't take the mindset that north GA is out of the woods tomorrow. In fact, the retreating warm front moving across the Atlanta area in the late morning and early afternoon may serve to INCREASE tornado potential, not lower it. On the other hand, there are indications that the threat will be less, though certainly not zero in northeast Georgia, at least until late afternoon.
 
The NAM's been showing the granddaddy storms moving through ATL by 21 EDT anyways. I'd say whatever the morning can throw could be bad, but the afternoon-evening could be the headlines. I'll be eagerly awaiting the HRRR to come into range for the late afternoon/evening though.
 
Brax said:
HRRR looking slightly different @ 13:00ET from WRF

lslhIW7.gif
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That looks like one nasty MCS going through Georgia.

(And is it just me, or is there a good number of hook echoes appearing Just above the AL-FL border on that last frame?)
 
ARCC said:
No I think you are correct about that. However in the HRRR run with no cape over eastern AL you could see the surface reflection on the meso low in SLP. Now whether or not the cape, temp and dp was lower or that was a model mess up due to the change in wind direction, I don't know. But mesolows are deadeningy here.
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I see what you are talking about now. Hope some kind of fly in the ointment is possible.
 
For 11AM EDT thats quite a bit of CAPE pushing north. Sure not widespread 2k+ across north GA yet but getting there fast.

hrrr_cape_se_16.png
 
Kory said:
Very little in the way of directional shear on the HRRR (and it's reflected in the SRH values). It's rather lackluster through 1pm.
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Definitely lack luster. 0-3km SRH is picking up over west AL, so it may end up a day where very large hail rules.
 
I don't quite pay attention to the models as much as I use to, how well has the HRRR performed the past couple years with events like this?
 
After looking at the models myself, I've become convinced that either the models or the atmosphere itself (or both) really ought to lay off the cocaine for a good while, because if these forecasts verify...:eek:
 
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