Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/5/17-4/6/17

Meanwhile, in Missouri.

index.php
 
  • Like
Reactions: KoD
warneagle said:
Very nasty looking storm near Neosho, MO right now.

EDIT: Tornado confirmed by law enforcement.
Click to expand...

Looks like on CC there was a TDS and then debris scattered unless I'm missing something.
 
Evan said:
Yep. Not a good thing especially if that results in better overlap as was discussed earlier.


There seems to be plenty of instability on the 22z HRRR and a secondary area of higher helicities moving back from MS into AL right as the HRRR cuts off at about 11am - 12pm. I have a feeling each new run of the HRRR is going to peel back another layer of the onion and as we get into the afternoon and evening I don't think anyone is going to like it.

HRRR is, however, definitely buying the wedge and limiting instability in impacted areas in Eastern AL and GA.
Click to expand...
Wedge?? Limiting instability... sounds good
 
Evan said:
Looks like on CC there was a TDS and then debris scattered unless I'm missing something.
Click to expand...
Looks like it broadened out but might be trying to tighten back up? Need to watch that storm immediately to the south of it as well...
 
Evan said:
Yep. Not a good thing especially if that results in better overlap as was discussed earlier.


There seems to be plenty of instability on the 22z HRRR and a secondary area of higher helicities moving back from MS into AL right as the HRRR cuts off at about 11am - 12pm. I have a feeling each new run of the HRRR is going to peel back another layer of the onion and as we get into the afternoon and evening I don't think anyone is going to like it.

HRRR is, however, definitely buying the wedge and limiting instability in impacted areas in Eastern AL and GA.
Click to expand...

That isn't a wedge but a mesolow/surface wave. We do not need any of those especially not where the LLJ will strengthen in the evening. And definitely definitely not over my neck of the woods.
 
Hmmm. I wonder if SPC pulls out the high risk. Never really liked "Moderate" word being a risk category, much less the 4/5 highest. Enhanced sounds more threatening to Joe-Q public than Moderate. But that's a discussion for another time.
 
I wouldn't want to be at Augusta National tomorrow...I was there on Monday and it was a CF trying to evacuate the course during the severe weather delays.
 
bingcrosbyb said:
Hmmm. I wonder if SPC pulls out the high risk. Never really liked "Moderate" word being a risk category, much less the 4/5 highest. Enhanced sounds more threatening to Joe-Q public than Moderate. But that's a discussion for another time.
Click to expand...
Agreed, if I was in charge of the SPC I think for the sake of the public I think the Marginal and Slight categories would stay the same, then the Enhanced category would become Moderate, Moderate would become High or "Significant", and High would become "Critical" or "Extreme".
 
SilentShadow87 said:
Agreed, if I was in charge of the SPC I think for the sake of the public I think the Marginal and Slight categories would stay the same, then the Enhanced category would become Moderate, Moderate would become High or "Significant", and High would become "Critical" or "Extreme".
Click to expand...

I've got a graphics set that goes slight->moderate->high->extreme which makes a lot more sense.
 
The CAPE model (on Spann's video) l shows no CAPE for north Georgia, but we seem to be where the moderate risk is focused. What's the deal with that?
 
ARCC said:
That isn't a wedge but a mesolow/surface wave. We do not need any of those especially not where the LLJ will strengthen in the evening. And definitely definitely not over my neck of the woods.
Click to expand...

The NAM was showing a wedge earlier leading to stabilization in N GA, and it looked like it filtered over into a small portion of E. AL. The HRRR appeared to be showing the same thing in the same time period. Are you saying that area of N. GA and the NE part of AL was seeing the reduced CAPE and surface temps due to the mesolow?
 
I bet they have to shift some of the risk areas substantially. Especially if CAD holds.. wonder how that will impact the event
 
ARCC said:
That isn't a wedge but a mesolow/surface wave. We do not need any of those especially not where the LLJ will strengthen in the evening. And definitely definitely not over my neck of the woods.
Click to expand...

I'm sure you saw that patch of 6-7 SIGTOR over Tallapoosa and Clay with convection to go along with it. Godspeed tomorrow for those in that area.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top