Psalm 148:8
Member
Also perhaps a simulated radar loop
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Evan
Member
Check out the HRRR images I just posted...supercells over areas of 4-5 SIGTOR.
Brax
Member
LOL I was just grabbing these screens myself. I like to look at helicities as well to get a feel for which cells have the potential for rotation.
Evan
Member
Helicity looked a little less in some areas on 20z vs 19z and then highter in a few areas. CAPE progression was further north on 20z vs 19z. 21z is running now. SIGTOR for the early morning round was definitely higher on 20z vs 19z for many places.
Brax
Member
Kory
Member
It's because it is coming in slower. More time for inland progression of thermos
Psalm 148:8
Member
Brax, will you continue to post these radar loops as the HRRR updates. That would be very helpful to me. Thanks in advance!
Brax
Member
If i havent posted another one in about 3 hours ping me via PM and I'll notice the email and reply there and here with another gif.
Bama Ravens
Member
State of Emergency declared for all 67 Alabama counties by Governor Robert Bentley.
I know it is still early, but it looks like the storms along the gulf coast are getting an earlier start than models show
TornadoFan
Member
Will that lower the threat?
Kory
Member
Unless it builds significantly further westward, not sure it'll block moisture transport and warm front progression northward. But yeah, I don't remember models lingering that convection in the NE Gulf.
tmccoy
Member
Hey guys, I'm still trying to learn all this stuff. I typically check SPC daily and try to learn the references. I'm a bit puzzled as to how far northeast this could push, particularly along extreme eastern ky/sw West Virginia. It seems moisture may be limited but I'm not sure as to the severity level we could possibly find ourselves in. Anybody able to offer an opinion?
Evan
Member
Yep. Not a good thing especially if that results in better overlap as was discussed earlier.
There seems to be plenty of instability on the 22z HRRR and a secondary area of higher helicities moving back from MS into AL right as the HRRR cuts off at about 11am - 12pm. I have a feeling each new run of the HRRR is going to peel back another layer of the onion and as we get into the afternoon and evening I don't think anyone is going to like it.
HRRR is, however, definitely buying the wedge and limiting instability in impacted areas in Eastern AL and GA.
- Thread starter
- #296
GTWXAlum
Member
The HRRR has been showing it today, moving eastward tonight and then new convection building northward overnight
I saw that but now we have a warning in the panhandle.
Sent from my SM-N920V using TalkWeather mobile app
Evan
Member
HRRR moves what has started out now fairly rapidly. If you buy the HRRR the warm front moves fairly unimpeded northward and there's plenty of instability. Not going to hang my hat in that, but unless radar trends show otherwise... if the radar follows the HRRR over the next 3-4 hours then as we get into being able to resolve the afternoon hours there *should* he more forecast certainty.
I truly believe we will see a high risk.
warneagle
Member
Very nasty looking storm near Neosho, MO right now.
EDIT: Tornado confirmed by law enforcement.
EDIT: Tornado confirmed by law enforcement.
- Moderator
- #300
3km NAM advects rich Gulf of Mexico moisture quicker than 12km. Currently, dewpoints in the 50s in the extreme southeast counties of Alabama. The 3km NAM has dewpoints in the 70s by 11pm central and the 12km is slower at 1am.