Severe WX January 10-12, 2020 Severe Weather Forecast Thread

[Justin Hindman]

I would say Mdt for tor, high for high winds...but the SPC may see it differently

I don’t remember a high risk being issued for just winds; other wise you would get a high risk in a hurricane would you not? There might have been one time I remember but can’t remember the date. I think we get moderate for sure. If we were to get a high risk, I don’t think it would be issued until noon tomorrow

 

[Richardjacks]

I don’t remember a high risk being issued for just winds; other wise you would get a high risk in a hurricane would you not? There might have been one time I remember but can’t remember the date. I think we get moderate for sure. If we were to get a high risk, I don’t think it would be issued until noon tomorrow

Rare "High Risk" for Severe Storms Issued, Derecho Imminent in Midwest

A high risk for severe weather is in place for the Midwest this evening as a life-threatening severe weather outbreak unfolds. Meteorologists issued the highest risk possible as they are now expecting a derecho, or a dangerous line of thunderstorms that produces destructive hurricane-force winds...

thevane.gawker.com

 

[Jacob]

I don’t remember a high risk being issued for just winds; other wise you would get a high risk in a hurricane would you not? There might have been one time I remember but can’t remember the date. I think we get moderate for sure. If we were to get a high risk, I don’t think it would be issued until noon tomorrow

I've never seen one in this part of the country. I've seen a couple up in the Great Lakes/Midwest regions before for wind events.

 

[darkskys25]

I don’t remember a high risk being issued for just winds; other wise you would get a high risk in a hurricane would you not? There might have been one time I remember but can’t remember the date. I think we get moderate for sure. If we were to get a high risk, I don’t think it would be issued until noon tomorrow

At noon the storms would already be entering the state of al.

 

[Justin Hindman]

At noon the storms would already be entering the state of al.

Agreed, but they will have a better idea of cape, if cells are forming then. I’m sure they will send up special weather balloons

 

[skelly]

Agreed, but they will have a better idea of cape, if cells are forming then. I’m sure they will send up special weather balloons

So basically prepare and act as if a hurricane is coming through tomorrow.

 

[Richardjacks]

18z HRRR is very concerning for central Alabama tomorrow...uh, make that the entire state

 

[Kory]

From a NWS BMX met:

 

[Richardjacks]

From a NWS BMX met:

and here is the latest RAP STP for tomorrow

 

[Justin Hindman]

I've never seen one in this part of the country. I've seen a couple up in the Great Lakes/Midwest regions before for wind events.
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So basically prepare and act as if a hurricane is coming through tomorrow.

Prepare whether it’s an enhanced or a high risk. It will get nasty for sure at some point

 

[TornadoFan]

Quite the hodograph on this sounding SE of Durant, OK on the Red River.

 

[mbrewer]

Quite the hodograph on this sounding SE of Durant, OK on the Red River.

A little bit of inhibition at the surface with 67T/66Tds. But besides that Sfc-3km lapse rate, it is very impressive. Let's see if storm mode will allow cells to take advantage of the environment.

 

[Richardjacks]

The effective warm front has developed in east Miss and west Alabama with showers and lightning along it

 

[Austin Dawg]

Looks like Central Texas is about to get started.

 

[Richardjacks]

The effective warm front has developed in east Miss and west Alabama with showers and lightning along it

View attachment 2348

I am confused, should I have placed this post on the other page??

 

[Xenesthis]

The effective warm front has developed in east Miss and west Alabama with showers and lightning along it

View attachment 2348

It looks like southern middle TN will get in on the action too! Do you agree?

 

[Richardjacks]

It looks like southern middle TN will get in on the action too! Do you agree?

yes, but I don't think it will be as bad as areas further south

 

[bwalk]

18z HRRR is very concerning for central Alabama tomorrow...uh, make that the entire state View attachment 2338

I agree. Those discreet supercells out ahead of the main line are a recipe for serious trouble.

 

[bwalk]

I think the severe activity in the DFW area is primed to kick in within the next couple of hours. Mets are saying between 4 & 6 pm (cst).
We'll see what the system has in store for the metroplex area soon. I lived there for 10 years. Severe weather has a different 'feel' to it out there than here, though I probably couldn't explain what I mean.

 

[WesL]

I am confused, should I have placed this post on the other page??

You are fine. I'll duplicate it on both. Thanks for sticking with us as we get this figured out.