Severe WX January 10-12, 2020 Severe Weather Forecast Thread

[Richardjacks]

A major change to the day 2 outlook. Mississippi and Alabama almost in their entirety are covered in the enhanced risk area.

I think that was a good move, higher capes are being pushed north with every new run. I think that we have to get the word out at just how widespread this may be, could impact many cities at the same time. This may stretch resources during recovery.

 

[Equus]

Oof. Well that's not too surprising, kind of expected that to be pulled north. Still thinking MDT on day one.

 

[Kory]

Yeah high res rapid refresh models are showing a wider warm sector with more poleward transport of instability. Not surprised. And I don’t think we’re done with upgrades here...

 

[Richardjacks]

I fully expect a high risk at some point. The parameters just don't look any more impressive as they do now. Remeber for January, it takes less instability than say March or April.

 

[Equus]

Having a wind advisory for south to southeast winds gusting 20-40mph is never a good sign

 

[mdberry]

I fully expect a high risk at some point. The parameters just don't look any more impressive as they do now. Remeber for January, it takes less instability than say March or April.

In what area(s) would you expect a high risk to be issued?

 

[Equus]

I note that the Day One has bumped to 15/hatched TOR as well

 

[Richardjacks]

In what area(s) would you expect a high risk to be issued?

Somewhere in Miss and Alabama probably between Jackson-Mobile between there and Hwy 278 area...probably centered south of 59..or in the southern half of the enh area.

 

[mdberry]

Somewhere in Miss and Alabama probably between Jackson-Mobile between there and Hwy 278 area...probably centered south of 59..or in the southern half of the enh area.

thank you

 

[GA Stormchaser]

I'm kind of surprised the Day 2 slight doesn't extent further into NE Georgia. Yes the line is not as strong, but cells still show up on the CAD models (most recent being the 12z HRRR & 12z HRW WRF-ARW), overlayed with non-trivial STP values.

 

[warneagle]

The Auburn basketball game against Georgia tomorrow has been moved to 11 a.m. due to the severe weather threat (it was scheduled for 5 p.m.)

 

[Equus]

Will probably get more extensions on Day One as observations start showing higher temps and dews than models are projecting, I'd guess

 

[Richardjacks]

The lightning in Mississippi is a good example of just how fast the atmosphere is changing in advance of tomorrow's event

 

[FEARLESS]

What do you think of the possibility of a derecho event looking at the forecasted vorticity and forecasted model

 

[Richardjacks]

What do you think of the possibility of a derecho event looking at the forecasted vorticity and forecasted model

very likely and I suspect it will cover a large area

 

[FEARLESS]

very likely and I suspect it will cover a large area

Thanks thats what liberty4dayz was looking at along with vorticity forecast on the euro model

 

[FEARLESS]

Thanks thats what liberty4dayz was looking at along with vorticity forecast on the euro model

Suspect it will transform and have multiple mesos

 

[Richardjacks]

I know the MDT expansion was because of high wind threat but I am beginning to think there may be some discrete cells in west Miss/or in the expansion area late tonight

 

[RollTide18]

I fully expect a high risk at some point. The parameters just don't look any more impressive as they do now. Remeber for January, it takes less instability than say March or April.

Would the High Risk be because of the damaging winds or tornadoes?

 

[Richardjacks]

Would the High Risk be because of the damaging winds or tornadoes?

I would say Mdt for tor, high for high winds...but the SPC may see it differently