Severe WX Multi-day Severe Weather Threat 3/12-3/14/2019

We'll see what transpires over the next few hours. The Fayette cell is clearly ingesting better instability, given how quickly the updraft strengthened. The Northwest Walker/Winston cells are on the northern edge of the instability axis. 300m2s2 0-1km ESRH is co-located well with this axis.
 
>65dbz on the Fayette cell, developing that C shape. Wonder if that cell merger it's about to go through is going to help it spin up or slow it down.
 
Is anyone else here having trouble getting the streams on LiveStormChasing to play? Because I am.
 
Thunderstorm in southern Winston continues to strengthen. The Fayette cell merger is occurring too. We'll see if that helps the low level meso.
 
Seems like this may be a day where the storms strengthen then weaken before the produce a tornado. Not saying one isn’t possible because there is, but a common thing so far with these storms
 
NorthGaWeather said:
Helicity is good right now. I think its more of an instability/dry air issue, which is hampering updraft strength.
Click to expand...

Well, surface dewpoints are currently in the lower-mid 60s, with dewpoint depressions around 10-15 degrees F. Perhaps what's holding the cells back is higher-level instability or lack thereof...?
 
Wind profiles are funky in the mid levels too. But yeah, lots of dry air. No wonder we're getting big hailers.

BMX.gif
 
I think what we're seeing is diabatic heating driving the downward mixture of drier air, which could (at least partially) explain the difficulty in these circulations becoming connected to the ground. Take BMX for example.

BMX.png

The low dew point and near dry adiabatic lapse rate in the area enclosed by the yellow circle is indicative of convective mixing. This results in a mixed layer LCL near 1000 m. This isn't crazy high, but it definitely is on the upper end of climatology for supercells in Central AL.

torclimatology.PNG
 
jmills said:
I think what we're seeing is diabatic heating driving the downward mixture of drier air, which could (at least partially) explain the difficulty in these circulations becoming connected to the ground. Take BMX for example.

View attachment 1217

The low dew point and near dry adiabatic lapse rate in the area enclosed by the yellow circle is indicative of convective mixing. This results in a mixed layer LCL near 1000 m. This isn't crazy high, but it definitely is on the upper end of climatology for supercells in Central AL.

View attachment 1218
Click to expand...
That was my concern this morning. In this case, sunshine hampering the threat this morning. We broke out into partly sunny skies, which allowed mixing.
 
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