Severe WX Southern Severe Weather Threat: 3/9-3/10

[rolltide_130]

Anyword on what the current storms are gonna do to the atmosphere?

There's not really any storms over N MS/AL other than spotty, widely scattered WAA showers which are normal.

This "rain cooled" scenario really looks like it's not going to unfold at all. None of the models have widespread rain ahead of the main line.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

We saw last Sunday how rapidly storms can change character when they hit a favorable environment, even if they have been somewhat messy and disorganized to that point. The eventual Lee Co. cell had only broad rotation for quite a while as it moved near Montgomery and Tuskegee, and other cells out ahead of the main line seemed to struggle to sustain themselves even as SPC issued the first of several increasingly ominous mesoscale discussions for east-central AL. Then as soon as I saw the 2004 UTC radar scan I knew it was go time.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

The HRRR is really going to town with this one. It even appears to be breaking the current cluster over AR up into discrete supercells as they reach the MS river early this afternoon.

It was a little too bullish with 2/23 (it had the E. MS activity but also more strong supercells further west that didn't happen), but IMO did pretty well with last Sunday.

 

[MattPetrulli]

The HRRR is really going to town with this one. It even appears to be breaking the current cluster over AR up into discrete supercells as they reach the MS river early this afternoon.

It was a little too bullish with 2/23 (it had the E. MS activity but also more strong supercells further west that didn't happen), but IMO did pretty well with last Sunday.

HRRR really does go to town with this one. CAMS have improved from last night but still vary with each having substantial aerial differences. However, each of them have discrete sups of some type later this afternoon. What an uptrend from about 12-15 hours ago.

 

[TornadoFan]

Southeast of Lexington, Tennessee.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Line in Arkansas appears to be intensifying, more warnings going out and (straight-line) velocities increasing. That bow about to move south of Little Rock looks problematic.

 

[MattPetrulli]

Tornado watch coming soon for parts of Western TN, KY, IL, MO, and AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 091545Z - 091815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are expected to develop through
afternoon from northeast Arkansas across northern Mississippi and
toward the Lower Ohio Valley. A few tornadoes and damaging winds
will be possible.

DISCUSSION...A warm front continues to lift north across eastern AR
and now into southeast MO and western KY, with rapidly increasing
shear profiles. While instability is weak, a line of storms along a
cold front over AR, and any additional storms that develop ahead of
the upper vorticity max, may have the potential to produce tornadoes
and/or damaging winds. Instability will be the main limiting factor,
but excessive shear profiles and favorable large-scale lift may
mitigate this.

Southern parts of the line will move slower across southern AR into
MS, but here instability will be stronger, and hodographs will
clearly favor supercells.

 

[MattPetrulli]

First TW of the day for Little Rock and areas to the north..

 

[Richardjacks]

HRRR is trending higher on cape in central Alabama
Sounding is for BHM at 3pm.

 

[Hailey]

New day one seems to be the same for Alabama


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[CheeselandSkies]

Likely TOG NW of Keo, AR. For some reason I can't attach saved images from GR 3 right now.

 

[MattPetrulli]

Strong circulation NW of Keo associated with a new tornado warning SE of Little Rock. Could very well be first tornado of the day.

 

[Jason Ledbetter]

Still holding steady at 52 and drizzle in Cartersville GA. Not sure we will make our forecasted high of 67 today.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Here we go. Lots of mess in the CC product but it looks like there's a drop co-located with the couplet. Also, keep in mind LZK is scanning it at less than 1,000' up here.

 

[Daryl]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Looks like it would have crossed US-165 in the Hamiter-Toltec vicinity. Sparsely populated area but there are some small neighborhoods out there, and like in AL last Sunday they probably consist mostly of poorly anchored prefab houses/mobile homes.

 

[MattPetrulli]

Very interesting cell associated with a new tornado warning North of Shreveport. Nice structure and decent couplet.

 

[Hailey]

And another tornado warning in northwestern Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas


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[CheeselandSkies]

Hmmmm, warning not showing up for that one yet on my GR 3.