Severe WX Invest 92L/Hurricane Isaias Severe WX

[tigerman29]

Isaias is a little ahead of schedule, no?

According to the discussion, they will probably issue the watch in the next hour or two though some of those rain bands are getting close to shore.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Trey still fairly bullish on the tornado threat. Labeling it "robust" and that he would not be suprised for a chance at a strong tornado

 

[Kds86z]

Hatched tornado 10% now from SPC.AS ISAIAS APPROACHES THE COAST, RAINBANDS ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BIG BEND OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE,
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE CURRENT VAD
PROFILE AT KTLH IS ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADO POTENTIAL (I.E.,
0-1 SRH OVER 250 M2/S2), AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND SRH WILL STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONCE THE MID 70S F
DEWPOINTS COME ONSHORE, PERSISTENT, DEEPER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE PROPENSITY TO ROTATE AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
TORNADOES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Ozonelayer]

Uhhh theres a supercell off the coast of thr big bend with a strong meso on it. Wonder if it stays till landfall

 

[Clancy]

Train of strong mesos due south of Tallahassee right now. Could definitely spell trouble as they come ashore.

 

[Kds86z]

Uhhh theres a supercell off the coast of thr big bend with a strong meso on it. Wonder if it stays till landfall

SUMMARY...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH 21Z/5PM ET ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN FL PANHANDLE.

DISCUSSION...A STRONGER SUPERCELL HAS BEEN NOTED OFFSHORE FROM
FRANKLIN COUNTY FL OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES. THIS CELL IS VERY NEAR
THE SURFACE MARINE FRONT AND HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION AS IT INGESTED STRONG LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED
0-1 KM SRH NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, ALLOWING FOR RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IMPINGING ON
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE AS THIS OCCURS
AS SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF ISAIAS MOVE ONSHORE.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

The stronger intensity of this thing by now is guaranteed to also increase tornado potential given stronger low level shear as a implication. Major problems on both sides here.

 

[akt1985]

Tornado Warning for Franklin County, Florida.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Gnarly supercell offshore, probably a tornadic waterspout ongoing with this. East/southeast of the warning that's (barely) onshore.

 

[Kds86z]

Tornado Warning for Franklin County, Florida.

oh boy...that supercell SPC mentioned.

 

[Kds86z]

oh boy...that supercell SPC mentioned.

now gone

 

[Kds86z]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2026

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA...

..SUMMARY

WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE ISAIAS, TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Storm south of Port St Joe may have a waterspout

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Trey is really gungho on ef2+ potential

 

[akt1985]

Another Tornado Warning for Dixie County, Florida near Cross City.

 

[Kds86z]

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