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Hurricane Isaias

Not that the models matter all that much at this point, but 06Z HAFS-B just dropped a 123kts 945mb into the discussion. 141mph.
HAFS-A 130mph
HWRF 130mph
HMON 118mph



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wx_guy said:
Oh, there's been quite a bit of wind shear its entire life and it's ever-increasing the further north it moves. It's done pretty well for itself and defied some odds I suppose. The shear will increase more today, though, but it's becoming a super thin line between "weakening before landfall" and "oops, the shear didn't stop it fast enough, it made landfall already", the National Hurricane Center even alludes to this in the 5 AM EDT advisory. So it may well be a photo finish to see if this storm weakens substantially or not. I still think 1995 Opal is a great comparison to this one, and Opal cause tremendous damage in the Florida Panhandle.
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I did noticed on satellite vapor, that some of the bands color goes from red/yellow to green and blue (some light yellow).
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I have a feeling a corridor from central alabama to south alabama is going to get wacked with some serious power outages and trees down
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We lose power with a 20 mph wind...I already know that I will probably not have power for a couple of days. I work at Old Cahawba Archaeological Park and when Hurricane Zeta came through, it looked like a war zone...trees down EVERYWHERE...but those winds were 80 mph when it came through here.
 
Looks like the latest Recon pass reported top winds of 120 knots at Flight Level, which is 140 mph. If you do the standard 10% reduction, that's still 125 mph, so if a dropsonde confirms it, Isaias may be even higher than 120 currently.
 
Another interesting point --> Look at the longitude grid points. It's ALREADY approaching the FL/AL line on the east-west axis. It is still moving NNE, not due north. It will be extremely interesting to see when it finally does turn due north and any westward jog.



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I used ChatGPT to help construct a satellite overlay with the Cone from 5 AM EDT. It's currently hugging the eastern edge of the cone and is still having an eastward component to its movement. Destin may still be in play.


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