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Severe Weather 2026

I also don't believe we are done with severe weather just yet across the Mid-South either
 
I'm hardly ever here on this thread unless severe weather is eminent near my area, but I'm curious when was the last time Alabama had a tornado warning? It seems every year from mid March to the end of April, somewhere in Alabama... especially N Alabama there will be a tornado warning or several warnings every 10 days or so. I can't remember one for N Alabama in at least over a month... someone correct me if I'm wrong
 
ghost said:
I'm hardly ever here on this thread unless severe weather is eminent near my area, but I'm curious when was the last time Alabama had a tornado warning? It seems every year from mid March to the end of April, somewhere in Alabama... especially N Alabama there will be a tornado warning or several warnings every 10 days or so. I can't remember one for N Alabama in at least over a month... someone correct me if I'm wrong
Click to expand...
Been while…
 
ghost said:
I'm hardly ever here on this thread unless severe weather is eminent near my area, but I'm curious when was the last time Alabama had a tornado warning? It seems every year from mid March to the end of April, somewhere in Alabama... especially N Alabama there will be a tornado warning or several warnings every 10 days or so. I can't remember one for N Alabama in at least over a month... someone correct me if I'm wrong
Click to expand...

There was a tornado warning for Lauderdale County on March 15. That's probably the most recent one for North Alabama.
 
Another front is expect on Wednesday and into Thursday. While this
front is a week out, models are in good agreement that plenty of
instability will build during the day on Wednesday. Temperatures
will climb into the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s.
The GFS forecast soundings, as a result generate enough instability
to warrant us keeping a close eye on the forecast as it evolves over
the next few days.

Copied from FFC's 2pm discussion today.
 
akt1985 said:
I saw James Spann’s Morning Briefing and he mentioned there were 0 Tornado Warnings issued in Alabama for the month of April.
Click to expand...
Wes Wyatt also mentioned this too - what a blessing. 2012 is the only other year I can think of in recent memory that was quiet in AL from a tornado perspective.

Previously, I had mentioned coming into this year, 2012 was a decent analog (exiting La Niña) and as far as it pertained to Alabama, that seemed to verify for April. March in 2012 and this year in were both much more active than those years’ Aprils. I know 2004 was a quiet April, but my familiarity with that year is much lower.

Before anyone says “we still have May to get through” yes, we do - two things can be true and we still need to be vigilant. But given the amount of severe weather outbreaks that have occurred in April regardless of ENSO pattern, etc. I will happily take a tornado warning free month in the middle of the spring.
 
An ejecting shortwave moves through midweek
(Wednesday), bringing our next shot at showers and thunderstorms.
The resultant surface low will be far enough south that convection
Wednesday into Thursday will likely form along the warm front. The
severe parameter space is hinting at stronger storm potential,
however model spread of timing remains high. This would have
significant effects on the parameter space with instability relying
on diurnal heating given weak energy transport. Will keep an eye on
conditions until then.

Lifted from FFC's discussion. Haven't really looked into Wed/Thu yet but I feel like FFC doesn't usually start mentioning "stronger storm potential" this far out unless there actually could be something going on. Will definitely be keeping an eye on this through the weekend.
 
bckhd2 said:
An ejecting shortwave moves through midweek
(Wednesday), bringing our next shot at showers and thunderstorms.
The resultant surface low will be far enough south that convection
Wednesday into Thursday will likely form along the warm front. The
severe parameter space is hinting at stronger storm potential,
however model spread of timing remains high. This would have
significant effects on the parameter space with instability relying
on diurnal heating given weak energy transport. Will keep an eye on
conditions until then.

Lifted from FFC's discussion. Haven't really looked into Wed/Thu yet but I feel like FFC doesn't usually start mentioning "stronger storm potential" this far out unless there actually could be something going on. Will definitely be keeping an eye on this through the weekend.
Click to expand...
We can have severe storms facing us in 3 days and FFC's AFD will be like "there will probably be some rain, idk," so that they're mentioning it this far out is quite interesting. Still a lot to work out on key features and timing, though, so too early to be specific about what kinds of threats we're looking at.
 
Clancy said:
We can have severe storms facing us in 3 days and FFC's AFD will be like "there will probably be some rain, idk," so that they're mentioning it this far out is quite interesting. Still a lot to work out on key features and timing, though, so too early to be specific about what kinds of threats we're looking at.
Click to expand...
Sounds like SPC almost painted A 15 percent over parts south for next week
 
NWS Charleston has confirmed the storm which impacted Fayette County, WV on April 29 was indeed a tornado, rated high-end EF1 with winds of 110 mph:
wvmetronews.com

National Weather Service confirms tornado in Fayette County - WV MetroNews

The NWS of Charleston sent a survey team to inspect damage Thursday.
wvmetronews.com wvmetronews.com

In addition, an exceptionally rare tornado was confirmed in Istiklol (formerly and still commonly known as Taboshar) in Tajikistan on April 30. According to the ESWD, this is the only confirmed tornado documented in the country going back to 1800.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Sounds like SPC almost painted A 15 percent over parts south for next week
Click to expand...

Yep.

"By Day 5/Tue, the jet associated with the eastward advancing
Southwest U.S. trough will being to phase with the upper trough over
the north-central U.S. This will bring strengthening southwesterly
flow to portions of the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity while
southwesterly low-level flow continues to transport Gulf moisture
north/northeast ahead of a southeastward-advancing surface cold
front. The warm sector will become increasingly narrow toward the
Lower Ohio Valley, and any strong to severe thunderstorm potential
would likely focus from parts of Texas into Arkansas/far western
TN/KY. However, model guidance varies with regard to placement and
extent of potential convection ongoing Tuesday morning, which will
have implications for severe potential through the rest of the day.
Differences in the location of the surface front also add
uncertainty, precluding a 15 percent delineation.

Some strong to severe thunderstorm potential could persist into Day
6/Wed across parts of the Lower MS Valley and southeastern U.S. This
remains uncertain and will be influenced by convective evolution in
the days prior."
 
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