Severe Weather 4/17/26

[Kds86z]

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

wow site is passing away rn, single images and small sentences are killing it rn

 

[N0mz]

There are papers out there purporting to show a long-term eastward shift in the locus of tornado activity. Critique them how you want, but what's going on here is some simply vibing that it can't have happened.

I’d chalk that more up to the difficulty of recording tornadoes (especially pre-wsr88d) in Dixie vs the relative ease in the Plains. Before 1974 it wasn’t really well known that violent tornadoes happened often in Dixie.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I need a storm chasing partner that can drive the other half to chase these systems that are 13 hours away.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

I will say, given how hrrr is the only somewhat simi-discrete model rn I kinda wanna wait for obs data b4 making any decisions. This happens here and there and people forget that I feel like.

 

[Weatherguyx]

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

at first I twas thinking wtf but then I saw the geographic section and it kinda clicked, is that why union center ef3 occured and well 90% of MS based tornadoes?

 

[A Guy]

I’d chalk that more up to the difficulty of recording tornadoes (especially pre-wsr88d) in Dixie vs the relative ease in the Plains. Before 1974 it wasn’t really well known that violent tornadoes happened often in Dixie.

Is that actually the case or is it a presumption? And the major southern outbreaks in 1908, 20, 32 and 36 are not the best documented, but they were certainly known.

I'd also add that part of the contention is a decrease in Plains tornadoes. That isn't dependent on what's happening in the SE.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Insane hail probs on Nadocast and CSU MLP.

 

[Kds86z]

New day 1, few strong tornadoes bla bla. Nothing special

 

[jiharris0220]

That’s not ideal

 

[Ozonelayer]

Latest HRRR has several discrete supercells well infront of the coldfront. If the trend continues, a MDT risk is definetly on the table

 

[Aaron Rider]

I’d chalk that more up to the difficulty of recording tornadoes (especially pre-wsr88d) in Dixie vs the relative ease in the Plains. Before 1974 it wasn’t really well known that violent tornadoes happened often in Dixie.

The South was also *very* isolated in many ways until well into the 20th century. Remember, until the 1960s, the St. Louis Cardinals were considered the Team of the South because there were no professional sports teams in the actual South, just as an example of how isolated the region was.

 

[Ozonelayer]

10z keeps up a similar outcome, although its more akin to a semi-discrete line of supercells ahead of the coldfront than the 09z and its more discrete outcome. Both however would be supportive of a high end tornadic event across Wisconsin.

 

[Ozonelayer]

10z keeps up a similar outcome, although its more akin to a semi-discrete line of supercells ahead of the coldfront than the 09z and its more discrete outcome. Both however would be supportive of a high end tornadic event across Wisconsin.

And on that note, the 08z going back to the 06z show similar outcomes to the 09z and 10z HRRR. If this trend continues, I would be on board with a tornado driven MDT for Central/East Central Wisconsin

 

[jiharris0220]

Doubt they will pull a moderate risk. Every cam would have to consistently show the same outcome, it can happen. But it doesn’t really matter. CIG2 is effectively a moderate risk but low certainty.
Moving on though, looking at the OWS at first light, other than a small area of lake breeze fog, theres not a single cloud deck in the sky.
In this case, it’s best to trust cam models that show the highest surface temps (specifically). The solutions showing temps peaking in the low 70s in Wi are most certainly erroneous at this point.
Expect actual surface temps to peak in the high 70s to even low 80s. This definitely would favor a more organized discrete mode and even higher cape values.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Doubt they will pull a moderate risk. Every cam would have to consistently show the same outcome, it can happen. But it doesn’t really matter. CIG2 is effectively a moderate risk but low certainty.
Moving on though, looking at the OWS at first light, other than a small area of lake breeze fog, theres not a single cloud deck in the sky.
In this case, it’s best to trust cam models that show the highest surface temps (specifically). The solutions showing temps peaking in the low 70s in Wi are most certainly erroneous at this point.
Expect actual surface temps to peak in the high 70s to even low 80s. This definitely would favor a more organized discrete mode and even higher cape values.

The point regarding CIG2 being a low confidence MDT is actually pretty good. I'd actually have to agree now and further on.

If the lack of cloudcover remains today, then we could be in for a very dangerous day in Wisconsin. A tornado outbreak is most certainly not off of the table today, so keep a good eye out. Kinematics and Thermos will be high today, so don't hesitate as any mature supercell will have the potential for sigtors.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Oooh interesting post. Also worth remembering that flooding is also still pretty bad in that area from earlier this week, so chasing that area might be even more tricky.

 

[TheSuckZone]