slenker
Member
Cool fearmongering done by yours truly Jaydon Shaw. What is with people wording it like this, especially storm chasers? It’s a nasty run, sure, let’s not exaggerate and say that Wisconsin will get decimated tomorrow, good lord.
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Severe Weather 4/17/26
- Thread starter N0mz
- Start date
Cool fearmongering done by yours truly Jaydon Shaw. What is with people wording it like this, especially storm chasers? It’s a nasty run, sure, let’s not exaggerate and say that Wisconsin will get decimated tomorrow, good lord.
Kds86z
Member
Oops sorry my bad. I will try to remember.
slenker
Member
I’m not saying it’s your fault, you’re the messenger, it’s the guy who is actually tweeting this stuff. In general those on this forum know better than to write stupid stuff like this.
speedbump305
Member
Agreed. I will add however, that may be the most concerning run yet.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Would like for the CAMS to be in better agreement, but will probably just head west on US 18 after work tomorrow. There's a relatively flat and open area from about Dodgeville to Fennimore. Would have done the same on Tuesday except by the time I left the storms were already initiating along and just south of that corridor.
speedbump305
Member
Please stay safe tomorrow and good luck!
slenker
Member
Oh, absolutely, and its an NSSL-MPAS, which iirc tend to be quite good models. Very concerning run, I just hate the stupid fluff that ends up riling people up for something that still has a couple of failure modes available. Also, models aren't yet in full agreement about something even close to this.
As a quick sanity check to keep from getting caught up in hype and whatnot, what flies in the ointment currently exist with this setup? That should help us grasp perhaps more realistic expectations as to how things could play out tomorrow.
Unbelievably, probably overconvection again. As I think even the prefrontals could get overwhelmed by crapvection.
Also, I know the conditional threat in Oklahoma has a problem with garbage Low Level Lapse Rates, but it I think everyone knows that the odds aren't in favor of tornadoes down there.
jiharris0220
Member
That’s would be what I would like to call an upper echelon dooms day scenario.
Obviously this displays the ceiling for this event, but like the vast majority of times, the ceiling is never reached. So while this scenario is definitely realistic for what could happen, it most certainly is not likely to happen.
But geez, had every cam showed this exact storm mode for the past day without any deviation this would’ve been high risk territory.
GXSC
Member
I know someone around the Marshfield, WI area... that area doesn't usually get a lot of tornadoes at least compared to here. I told them about this setup and we'll see what happens tomorrow, fingers crossed.
That makes me wonder why these events over the past week or so (A.) have repeatedly involved Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin taking the brunt of the severe activity, and (B.) have all repeatedly featured overconvection as a (potential) failure mode, again all in the span of a week!
If anyone has any suggestions, please share it with the rest of us!
slenker
Member
I don't want to sound like a certain other user who used to frequent this forum, and what I'm about to say should absolutely be taken with an atom of salt because it's a lot of conjecture, but the abundance of over-convecting events very recently really makes me feel like climate change has something to do with it. Probably not though, could just be large-scale patterns at play that aren't fully understood yet, simple statistics, or something else entirely.
I feel like if you look at some of the events over the last few years they're different from older years in some weird way. I would assume it would be the fault of climate change, but unfortunately we just don't know enough about the atmosphere to pin it on anything.
Also, if you look at the years he was most active, you could see why he'd thought that. The early 2020s were really strange with peak seasons being dead silent with most events in autumn and early spring.
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jiharris0220
Member
For a solution like what the HTPO showed to actually have a reasonable chance to occur, will highly dependent on the magnitude of PBL/surface mixing, and how stout the inversion layer is.
The hrrr has midday temps in Wisconsin in the high 60s and a weak cap, which is why it shows such a messy storm mode.
The 3km NAM has temps in the mid 70s, and a stout cap. Which the HTPO also has. So consequently the storm mode is less crowded and messy.
Even then if we get a well mixed PBL and a stout cap, I’d still only give it a 50/50 shot of something like that actually happening.
Because you then would have to consider confluence band placement, and other mesoscale factors that influence the exact storm mode.
A discrete mode is guaranteed tomorrow, but to what degree will that mode be messy or organized remains to be seen. But it would take all the bad luck in the world for a solution like that to occur.
The realistic upper end scenario would be a single VI Tor and one or two sigs. Things can still change for better or worse.
The hrrr has midday temps in Wisconsin in the high 60s and a weak cap, which is why it shows such a messy storm mode.
The 3km NAM has temps in the mid 70s, and a stout cap. Which the HTPO also has. So consequently the storm mode is less crowded and messy.
Even then if we get a well mixed PBL and a stout cap, I’d still only give it a 50/50 shot of something like that actually happening.
Because you then would have to consider confluence band placement, and other mesoscale factors that influence the exact storm mode.
A discrete mode is guaranteed tomorrow, but to what degree will that mode be messy or organized remains to be seen. But it would take all the bad luck in the world for a solution like that to occur.
The realistic upper end scenario would be a single VI Tor and one or two sigs. Things can still change for better or worse.
jackhutwx
Member
ummmmm...
The 90's really were the good old days of chasing spectacular isolated sups through the plains. Getting storm modes like that is getting rarer and rarer around here anymore.
jiharris0220
Member
The hrrr came in a couple of degrees warmer at the surface compared to the 18z run but also with a weaker cap. So the run still ended up being messy but slightly more spaced than it’s 18z output.
