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Severe Weather 4/17/26

TheSuckZone said:
The 90's really were the good old days of chasing spectacular isolated sups through the plains. Getting storm modes like that is getting rarer and rarer around here anymore.
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It isn’t just the 90s, it’s that and every decade before it (in recorded history) which displayed common, very discrete storm modes in the plains.
I personally think it’s a combination of a drier southwest region (stronger EML) and a moisture atmosphere (more crapvection).
The stronger EML requires more instability than it used to in order to break it. On days where it does break, the over abundance of moisture simply ends up causing the OWS to become overcrowded.
Obviously these laughably simple two point “explanations” typed up in two minutes crumble under any facet of scientific scrutiny and Im effectively talking out of my money maker here.
But theres multiple studies that get into the continued drying of the southwest and higher world wide moisture content so they do have some weight behind them.
But as of now theres simply not enough long term data to make any sort of definitive conclusion.
 
slenker said:
I don't want to sound like a certain other user who used to frequent this forum, and what I'm about to say should absolutely be taken with an atom of salt because it's a lot of conjecture, but the abundance of over-convecting events very recently really makes me feel like climate change has something to do with it. Probably not though, could just be large-scale patterns at play that aren't fully understood yet, simple statistics, or something else entirely.
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That guy was the worst. Like the worst poster in history on here. I’ll stand by that opinion, no one comes close to the trash he propagated on here. The final nail in the coffin to all that BS was Lyza’s studies last year.

Now, I do agree with you, because I’ve thought the same thing recently. Like, no joke, a week ago. However, I think it’s just both recency and confirmation bias. Weather data and tools are accessible as ever. Can you imagine meteorologists in the 1960s being told that any average joe can access multiple models at their fingertips? Our documentation is the best and most modern it’s ever been. We have an entire government entity dedicated to predicting and gathering data on the lead up to a storm event.

There is just no way to know that the moderate risk on 5/7/1955 bu$ted due to overconvection. What if 1952 had multiple bu$ts because of overconvection? We are able to discern the outbreaks from the potential ones. Only the most notable historical events stand out, and a good deal of those suffer from MAJOR ratings inflation. I’m willing to bet good money there was a 20th century outbreak that was actually a QLCS slop event, that got 5+ F4s applied to it.

You can get on stormtrack and check out Tim Marshall’s old chase posts. He documents a lot of cap bu$ts and overconvection events. It’s a nice little historical record for us hobbyists.

I think the majority of events have always had bad storm mode. What sets the big ones apart from the run of the mill tornado outbreaks are when Storm mode cooperates fully. To get Storm mode to cooperate fully is really difficult. I just haven’t seen any data, because really good tornado records are still in a relative infancy period, to posit that our current cycle is any different than natural cyclical variations observed in any other century.
 
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ColdFront said:
That guy was the worst. Like the worst poster in history on here. I’ll stand by that opinion, no one comes close to the trash he propagated on here. The final nail in the coffin to all that BS was Lyza’s studies last year.

Now, I do agree with you, because I’ve thought the same thing recently. Like, no joke, a week ago. However, I think it’s just both recency and confirmation bias. Weather data and tools are accessible as ever. Can you imagine meteorologists in the 1960s being told that any average joe can access multiple models at their fingertips? Our documentation is the best and most modern it’s ever been. We have an entire government entity dedicated to predicting and gathering data on the lead up to a storm event.

There is just no way to know that the moderate risk on 5/7/1955 bu$ted due to overconvection. Only the most notable historical events stand out, and a good deal of those suffer from MAJOR ratings inflation. I’m willing to bet good money there was a 20th century outbreak that was a QLCS slop event, that got 5+ F4s applied to it.

You can get on stormtrack and check out Tim Marshall’s old chase posts. He documents a lot of cap bu$ts and overconvection events. It’s a nice little historical record for us hobbyists.

I think the majority of events have always had bad storm mode. What sets the big ones apart from the run of the mill tornado outbreaks are when Storm mode cooperates fully. To get Storm mode to cooperate fully is really difficult. I just haven’t seen any data, because really good tornado records are still in a relative infancy period, to posit that our current cycle is any different than natural cyclical variations observed in any other century.
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Oh super hard agree on a lot of these. In fact I think there are notable periods, particularly in the 80s, where the great plains kinda just goes super quiet. I think that the alleys rotate and that can really throw a lot of people off, especially with the expectations of each alley.

Also there are definitely events that would likely be rated significantly higher. The Sulfur-Marietta outbreak would've probably gotten much higher end ratings on all tornadoes, the left split day would've likely had a myriad of f4s, and I'd have to imagine Grinell of last year would've been rated an f4.

Anyways, last post on that, back on topic.
 
ColdFront said:
That guy was the worst. Like the worst poster in history on here. I’ll stand by that opinion, no one comes close to the trash he propagated on here. The final nail in the coffin to all that BS was Lyza’s studies last year.

Now, I do agree with you, because I’ve thought the same thing recently. Like, no joke, a week ago. However, I think it’s just both recency and confirmation bias. Weather data and tools are accessible as ever. Can you imagine meteorologists in the 1960s being told that any average joe can access multiple models at their fingertips? Our documentation is the best and most modern it’s ever been. We have an entire government entity dedicated to predicting and gathering data on the lead up to a storm event.

There is just no way to know that the moderate risk on 5/7/1955 bu$ted due to overconvection. What if 1952 had multiple bu$ts because of overconvection? We are able to discern the outbreaks from the potential ones. Only the most notable historical events stand out, and a good deal of those suffer from MAJOR ratings inflation. I’m willing to bet good money there was a 20th century outbreak that was actually a QLCS slop event, that got 5+ F4s applied to it.

You can get on stormtrack and check out Tim Marshall’s old chase posts. He documents a lot of cap bu$ts and overconvection events. It’s a nice little historical record for us hobbyists.

I think the majority of events have always had bad storm mode. What sets the big ones apart from the run of the mill tornado outbreaks are when Storm mode cooperates fully. To get Storm mode to cooperate fully is really difficult. I just haven’t seen any data, because really good tornado records are still in a relative infancy period, to posit that our current cycle is any different than natural cyclical variations observed in any other century.
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The thing that really did it for me was the post about the wormhole circulating around the tornado. You showed it to me. I needed to bleach my eyes after that one...

But yeah, absolutely agree with the sentiment that ratings back then were over-inflated to high hell. That 100% contributes to the very stark decrease in violent tornadoes per event compared to even just over 10-15 years ago. If 3/31/23 occurred in the 90s you'd get more than 5 violent tornadoes out of it, and that might be being conservative, lol.
 
ColdFront said:
That guy was the worst. Like the worst poster in history on here. I’ll stand by that opinion, no one comes close to the trash he propagated on here. The final nail in the coffin to all that BS was Lyza’s studies last year.

Now, I do agree with you, because I’ve thought the same thing recently. Like, no joke, a week ago. However, I think it’s just both recency and confirmation bias. Weather data and tools are accessible as ever. Can you imagine meteorologists in the 1960s being told that any average joe can access multiple models at their fingertips? Our documentation is the best and most modern it’s ever been. We have an entire government entity dedicated to predicting and gathering data on the lead up to a storm event.

There is just no way to know that the moderate risk on 5/7/1955 bu$ted due to overconvection. What if 1952 had multiple bu$ts because of overconvection? We are able to discern the outbreaks from the potential ones. Only the most notable historical events stand out, and a good deal of those suffer from MAJOR ratings inflation. I’m willing to bet good money there was a 20th century outbreak that was actually a QLCS slop event, that got 5+ F4s applied to it.

You can get on stormtrack and check out Tim Marshall’s old chase posts. He documents a lot of cap bu$ts and overconvection events. It’s a nice little historical record for us hobbyists.

I think the majority of events have always had bad storm mode. What sets the big ones apart from the run of the mill tornado outbreaks are when Storm mode cooperates fully. To get Storm mode to cooperate fully is really difficult. I just haven’t seen any data, because really good tornado records are still in a relative infancy period, to posit that our current cycle is any different than natural cyclical variations observed in any other century.
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Ok now Im curious.
What guy are we talking about here? I feel like I know what y’all might be talking about, Im sure I even confronted him but I honestly completely forgot the username.
 
A Guy said:
There are papers out there purporting to show a long-term eastward shift in the locus of tornado activity. Critique them how you want, but what's going on here is some simply vibing that it can't have happened.
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My issue with it personally is that a lot of the ugliest tornado outbreaks are on the east coast. With Enigma, Palm Sunday, 74 Super, and Tri-state outbreak all happening well east of the plains. It can't have moved east if it was already well east of the plains.
 
eep said:
My issue with it personally is that a lot of the ugliest tornado outbreaks are on the east coast. With Enigma, Palm Sunday, 74 Super, and Tri-state outbreak all happening well east of the plains. It can't have moved east if it was already well east of the plains.
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There's more that's weighting tornado distributions than a small selection of outbreaks (though very large single events do influence it)
 
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