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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Things firing prefrontals in S Central AL ahead of the line. Really beginning to gain confidence on a strong tor threat set up around there.
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Yeah the nam has been rather consistent with it. I think right now the nam is probably the best to look at until we get a little closer and then the HRRR will probably the one to go with. Interestingly the RAP as well as the NAM now have the moderate instability, the hrrr is underdone compared to those from but the prefrontals and possibly semi broken line of the nam is a dangerous setup.

*Rap also hints at prefrontals too
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Yeah the nam has been rather consistent with it. I think right now the nam is probably the best to look at until we get a little closer and then the HRRR will probably the one to go with. Interestingly the RAP as well as the NAM now have the moderate instability, the hrrr is underdone compared to those from but the prefrontals and possibly semi broken line of the nam is a dangerous setup
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Being honest , hrrr has t been at its best lately either . But we see
 
@Brice W We are in an enhanced risk now. How’s it looking for you? What is your thoughts on Monday’s threat?

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Here is the BMX morning AFD that Uncle JuJu referenced:

Widespread severe weather looks likely Sunday night, as a very
fast line of storms moves through the region. Damaging winds are the
main threat, with the tornado threat not far behind it.

In a rare instance, the SPC sent out a massive Day 3 update, bumping
portions of our region into an Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5), with a
Slight Risk (Level 2/5) everywhere else. This large upgrade is not
unwarranted, as a very deep trough and low pressure will begin
working into the Midwest by Sunday afternoon. As storms become more
organized along, and ahead of the cold front, this trough will pick
up more and more speed. The result currently appears to be a large
portion of the lower Midwest and Deep South under the threat for
widespread damaging winds and tornadoes.

Locally, the current thinking is that the line of storms should
begin to work into the area between 8-10 PM. These storms will be
moving very fast, and the speed of these storms will no doubt
influence the threat for damaging winds. When it comes to the
tornado threat, this is where guidance starts to differ. Due to
timing issues, and questions regarding instability, the potential
tornado threat may be limited to along the main line. However,
given forecast wind profiles, if any storms were to develop ahead
of the line, they would almost certainly be supercellular in
nature. Again, given the speed of this main line, it may not take
much time at all for these storms to become undercut. Regardless,
these single cell storms would pose a tornado threat as well,
particularly in our SE counties. For now, the most likely scenario
is embedded tornadoes along the main line of thunderstorms. With
all of that being said, I don`t want to downplay the damaging wind
threat given the upper- level environment. This line could easily
produce widespread wind damage across the region, during a time
of day where most people have their guard down.
 
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