Alabama has a pretty good shot for had weather it's just whether enough instability can build in and the storm mode
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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
speedbump305
Member
That absolutely has my attention.
N0mz
Member
cmon let's not extrapolate the HRRR at the end of its run
Grand Poo Bah
Member
Down south 00z HRRR is showing plenty of SBCAPE ahead of the dryline, and Sunday evening between 20z and 0z cloud tops explode from nothing to almost 40k ft in cellular fashion.
They say 55 degree dewpoints are enough for tornadoes, and that'll be put to the test up North, because the dewpoint temp spread is only 5-8 degrees, and we've got both confluence bands and prefrontal supercells up there. Surface based CAPE is paltry, but if the last three systems are anything to go by, numbers will double day-of and that'd give a nice solid line of 1000 J/kg. If I was betting money, I'd say Northern MS and West TN have the best chance for a few significant tornadoes Sunday evening, with a contingent threat in S IN if there's more instability up North.
They say 55 degree dewpoints are enough for tornadoes, and that'll be put to the test up North, because the dewpoint temp spread is only 5-8 degrees, and we've got both confluence bands and prefrontal supercells up there. Surface based CAPE is paltry, but if the last three systems are anything to go by, numbers will double day-of and that'd give a nice solid line of 1000 J/kg. If I was betting money, I'd say Northern MS and West TN have the best chance for a few significant tornadoes Sunday evening, with a contingent threat in S IN if there's more instability up North.
N0mz
Member
NOT saying this is synoptically like 4/2/25 or will play out like 4/2/25... but that run kinda looks like how HRRR runs looked before 4/2.
00z NAM storm mode is VERY concerning for tornadoes in the deep south...0.0
4-5 individual prefrontal supercells I'm counting. Waiting for the nam 3km to finish currently
speedbump305
Member
Been very busy so haven’t had time to look at models/trend, but i’m also pretty concerned about Monday as well. Especially for Virginia and the Carolinas. Been a long time since i’ve seen a parameter space like that in that area.
KevinH
Member
When is that valid for? It got cut off lol
KevinH
Member
That is early in the AM too... right as people are getting ready for work/school. Something to watch. can't wait for the short term models to get a handle on things..
I still think it's odd that risk areas for D3/D4 "jumped". I doubt that AL/GA will escape completely unscathed.
bckhd2
Member
Yeah I'm starting to get worried about everything coming in right at rush hour in the Atlanta area. Waiting to see what SPC does in the new outlooks tomorrow; I agree that the threat isn't just going to skip over AL/GA.
- Thread starter
- #373
CheeselandSkies
Member
Just your casual 248 j/kg of 0-3KM MLCAPE at 06Z (southern Alabama).
KevinH
Member
Could you imagine if supercells started jumping all over the place playing hopscotch down here? LOL "Pulse" supercells??!
Yeah, I would MOVE
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Yeah, I have a very busy Monday involving people who understand nothing about weather, so that will definitely be a fun experience.
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
Sharpy
Member
Checked the 00 NAM 3Km and I found it interesting that there was hardly any UH across the Gulf States. Not sure if it’s handling that right.
Also, I noted a little prefrontal development, but no clearly defined supercells. Just from my observations of the run compared to the other models to this point, it could be a close call on if the moisture really gets all there at the same time as the line.
Also, I noted a little prefrontal development, but no clearly defined supercells. Just from my observations of the run compared to the other models to this point, it could be a close call on if the moisture really gets all there at the same time as the line.