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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

Sharpy said:
Checked the 00 NAM 3Km and I found it interesting that there was hardly any UH across the Gulf States. Not sure if it’s handling that right.

Also, I noted a little prefrontal development, but no clearly defined supercells. Just from my observations of the run compared to the other models to this point, it could be a close call on if the moisture really gets all there at the same time as the line.
Click to expand...
Should also note that on the same model run, the supercell parameters and what little output of the UH tracks it showed were maxed out over the current ENH area. Outlook areas are subject to change, but they seem to have a good handle on it so far.
 
Sharpy said:
Checked the 00 NAM 3Km and I found it interesting that there was hardly any UH across the Gulf States. Not sure if it’s handling that right.

Also, I noted a little prefrontal development, but no clearly defined supercells. Just from my observations of the run compared to the other models to this point, it could be a close call on if the moisture really gets all there at the same time as the line.
Click to expand...
It's not, I don't remember what the reasoning is, but it just doesn't do UH particularly well in many instances. Even if it was purely QLCS straight-line winds, you'd still have plenty of visible updraft helicity.
 
A couple of items off the CIPS' model-derived guidance. Widespread SCP values up to 12 are visible, in addition to a large swath of Effective STP values of 3. This grouping of products generally does a good job even at this range, and numbers like these are rather impressive.
1773459674574.png1773459680390.png
 
Clancy said:
It's not, I don't remember what the reasoning is, but it just doesn't do UH particularly well in many instances. Even if it was purely QLCS straight-line winds, you'd still have plenty of visible updraft helicity.
Click to expand...
Thanks for your input! I think I did see a model that was more aggressive than the NAM 3Km by far so that one would seem closer to what this system could most likely do when taken at face value vs. best case but unlikely scenario.
 
You think they'll pull a Level 4 risk in the new Day 2 or wait until the 11:30am Day 2 Update? @tennessee storm chaser
 
I can see them going ahead with it as far as damaging wind potential. Magnitude of tornado risk seems the biggest uncertainty.
 
Clancy said:
A couple of items off the CIPS' model-derived guidance. Widespread SCP values up to 12 are visible, in addition to a large swath of Effective STP values of 3. This grouping of products generally does a good job even at this range, and numbers like these are rather impressive.
View attachment 51782View attachment 51783
Click to expand...
What about the next few frames after this? Maybe I don't want to know?
 
The area remains pretty much unchanged from Day 3. If the current trends continue and the range of solutions converges towards the more bullish solutions (such as the NAM), then I expect a pretty significant change in tone regarding the Gulf Coast states
 
20260314_020047.jpg
 
ISOLATED TORNADO RISK FROM OH TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A
CONDITIONAL TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO EXIST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT INTO AL/GA IF CELLS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR EARLY
MONDAY.

..JEWELL.. 03/14/2026

 
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