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Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

ColdFront said:
I wonder if @CheeselandSkies is on this IL storm?
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Nope. Ended up going for the western stuff by Galesburg which went real messy, real fast. Cell we were on went tornado warned for a little while between there and Kewanee, and got a little nudge from the forward flank of one to its west-southwest producing a tight little cylindrical wall cloud that rotated vigorously for a short time, but then fell apart. Seems like it was never able to really tap into the unstable inflow from the south side of the boundary.
 
VultureDirge89 said:
Can't say I agree with this...3/31/23 was a lot more widespread and today probably didn't have quite as many intense/violent tornadoes. I'd say it's more like a later evening version of 2/28/17 shifted a bit to the east.
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Absolutely not comparable, and whoever is comparing these events is either badly misinformed or overhyping this event way too hard. 3/31/23 was one of the most impressive tornado outbreaks ever recorded in some ways outside of the top tier ones. This was just a single warm front tornado producer - still impressive in its own right, but not at all the same when it came to the parameter spaces the storms acted in, over very wide swaths of the country.
 
Solo supercell events are honestly really interesting in their own right. An isolated supercell hammering down 3-4 violent tornadoes on its own in an anomalous March environment is weirder than a small set of supercells producing various significant tornadoes.
 
slenker said:
Absolutely not comparable, and whoever is comparing these events is either badly misinformed or overhyping this event way too hard. 3/31/23 was one of the most impressive tornado outbreaks ever recorded in some ways outside of the top tier ones. This was just a single warm front tornado producer - still impressive in its own right, but not at all the same when it came to the parameter spaces the storms acted in, over very wide swaths of the country.
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3/31/2023 was how I started getting into both meteorology and also how I got an extreme phobia of tornadoes (that just got worse in 2024). I remember there was a storm with a hook echo moving over my town and I thought I was gonna die that day, nope it just dropped a bunch of gorilla hail and over the next few months we just never stopped getting harassed by roofers.
 
I see we had a pretty major outbreak today across parts of the Plains and Midwest. Thoughts are with everyone impacted. Remember that it's much more than fatalities and injuries, it's the homes, memories and senses of safety that are devastated.

For tomorrow, uhh, today, I was previously feeling pretty reticent about much of any threat for the South, but 00Z modelling indicates we could have some surprises late Wednesday into early Thursday. It still feels like a wind-dominant threat, but SRH on the order of 200-250 m2/s2 and at least moderately-curved hodographs could support some tornado potential. For a lot of AL/GA, looks like a late night QLCS situation - I know, nobody's favorite. I tend to think ARW and HRRR are probably more accurate in terms of areal coverage, just because of how these things usually shake out. Still not overly-worried about it, but would suggest Deep South folks to keep an eye on it nonetheless.
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