Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

[Kds86z]

Nadocast, that red bullseye is where that long track supercell was.

 

[US_Highway15]

Nadocast, that red bullseye is where that long track supercell was.

Nadocast pretty much nailed it today.

 

[US_Highway15]

I see we had a pretty major outbreak today across parts of the Plains and Midwest. Thoughts are with everyone impacted. Remember that it's much more than fatalities and injuries, it's the homes, memories and senses of safety that are devastated.

For tomorrow, uhh, today, I was previously feeling pretty reticent about much of any threat for the South, but 00Z modelling indicates we could have some surprises late Wednesday into early Thursday. It still feels like a wind-dominant threat, but SRH on the order of 200-250 m2/s2 and at least moderately-curved hodographs could support some tornado potential. For a lot of AL/GA, looks like a late night QLCS situation - I know, nobody's favorite. I tend to think ARW and HRRR are probably more accurate in terms of areal coverage, just because of how these things usually shake out. Still not overly-worried about it, but would suggest Deep South folks to keep an eye on it nonetheless.
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If 2026 has showed anything it's that it's full of surprises, so I'm sure something will happen tomorrow/today that's surprising.

 

[Kds86z]

If 2026 has showed anything it's that it's full of surprises, so I'm sure something will happen tomorrow/today that's surprising.

Today prob verified with “multiple strong to intense tornadoes” but all from one single cell. Not what I had in mind but SPC wins.

 

[US_Highway15]

Today prob verified with “multiple strong to intense tornadoes” but all from one single cell. Not what I had in mind but SPC wins.

That was really the surprising part of today, is that today verified, but all thanks to one long track supercell/tornado.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

That was really the surprising part of today, is that today verified, but all thanks to one long track supercell/tornado.

and the Texas tornado threat didn’t do much except a couple brief tornadoes. Today would’ve been kind of snooze without that one cell, and to think chasers almost abandoned it (good reason).

 

[US_Highway15]

and the Texas tornado threat didn’t do much except a couple brief tornadoes. Today would’ve been kind of snooze without that one cell, and to think chasers almost abandoned it (good reason).

Copic was five seconds away from fully abandoning the cell and heading back west until he turned back around and followed it.

 

[Kds86z]

Copic was five seconds away from fully abandoning the cell and heading back west until he turned back around and followed it.

Yep that was wild, I was following along. He was so unsure what to do.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Jacob Aden]

Solo supercell events are honestly really interesting in their own right. An isolated supercell hammering down 3-4 violent tornadoes on its own in an anomalous March environment is weirder than a small set of supercells producing various significant tornadoes.

Severe weather is prone to producing outliers

 

[Kds86z]

 

[buckeye05]

Latest SPC outlook mentions a possible increase in probabilities for the southern states in later outlooks.

 

[Kds86z]

In my first 5% tornado hatched, Pennsylvania.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

In my first 5% tornado hatched, Pennsylvania.

nice active as crap recently its my second 5# once again heavy rain and winds haha

 

[Aaron Rider]

Man I’m surprised those Oklahoma storms are warned. Not impressive at all on velocity.

Do some offices have a policy of warning at the slightest hint of rotation? Is there a national standard or is it very dependent?

 

[keithGA]

Do some offices have a policy of warning at the slightest hint of rotation? Is there a national standard or is it very dependent?

It would seem so. FFC is notorious for this.

 

[Aaron Rider]

It would seem so. FFC is notorious for this.

I was just thinking back to my childhood when Pennsylvania storms regularly went TOR for "rotation." And I've always wondered if that's common.