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Severe Weather 3/4 - 3/8

One thing I see people on social media honing in on is the CAPE. We don’t have that explosive, CAPE bomb environment we usually see in April–June. But, as evidenced by yesterday’s event, I can see a scenario where the cool season trend of CAM’s underestimating parcel updraft strength via CAPE comes into play once again. With really subtle capping, but weak ascent, we could see a situation where it’s a number of supercells across the board. And with the kinematic environment at play (especially after dark), that could spell trouble.

I do think the dryline orientation will play a part. You really want the N/S orientation to have a better shot at storms staying discrete; some models have it that way, some don’t.

The cold front progression will also be something to watch in how quick that progresses. While it is generally warm out east of the synoptic trough, with some subsidence at the surface still lingering from the cold pattern we just got out of, the cold fronts are largely more progressive during the cool season (moving faster).
 
Tanner said:
One thing I see people on social media honing in on is the CAPE. We don’t have that explosive, CAPE bomb environment we usually see in April–June. But, as evidenced by yesterday’s event, I can see a scenario where the cool season trend of CAM’s underestimating parcel updraft strength via CAPE comes into play once again. With really subtle capping, but weak ascent, we could see a situation where it’s a number of supercells across the board. And with the kinematic environment at play (especially after dark), that could spell trouble.

I do think the dryline orientation will play a part. You really want the N/S orientation to have a better shot at storms staying discrete; some models have it that way, some don’t.

The cold front progression will also be something to watch in how quick that progresses. While it is generally warm out east of the synoptic trough, with some subsidence at the surface still lingering from the cold pattern we just got out of, the cold fronts are largely more progressive during the cool season (moving faster).
Click to expand...
I think people might be seeing Oklahoma/Kansas in the crosshairs and thinking about this as if it's a typical spring plains event rather than the first week of March
 
The most noteworthy thing i'm seeing right now is just the sheer number of UD helicity swaths on the HRRR. If CAPE ends up being higher than forecast, or maybe if the cap is a little stronger, we could have major problems. Things just have to remain semi-discrete for powerful tornadoes to happen.



Looking at simulated echo tops is interesting as well, and makes the possibility of embedded supercells seem much more likely. There will be plenty of 40,000 ft cells.

 
For the first time this year I'm under some sort of notable threat level; maybe the SKYWARN training on the morning of the 7th will be used the same afternoon, lol.
 
Tanner said:
One thing I see people on social media honing in on is the CAPE. We don’t have that explosive, CAPE bomb environment we usually see in April–June. But, as evidenced by yesterday’s event, I can see a scenario where the cool season trend of CAM’s underestimating parcel updraft strength via CAPE comes into play once again. With really subtle capping, but weak ascent, we could see a situation where it’s a number of supercells across the board. And with the kinematic environment at play (especially after dark), that could spell trouble.

I do think the dryline orientation will play a part. You really want the N/S orientation to have a better shot at storms staying discrete; some models have it that way, some don’t.

The cold front progression will also be something to watch in how quick that progresses. While it is generally warm out east of the synoptic trough, with some subsidence at the surface still lingering from the cold pattern we just got out of, the cold fronts are largely more progressive during the cool season (moving faster).
Click to expand...

I winder if CAPE should also be considered somewhat relative to the season... Just a random stream of consciousness thought.
 
Tomcats Forever! said:
I winder if CAPE should also be considered somewhat relative to the season... Just a random stream of consciousness thought.
Click to expand...
This is actually real. I read a study last year that talked about how QLCS systems usually happen between 1-2000 CAPE in the early spring, and anything above that is usually more volatile and supercellular, but in the late spring/summer QLCSs can easily happen in 3-4000 CAPE
 
Tomcats Forever! said:
I winder if CAPE should also be considered somewhat relative to the season... Just a random stream of consciousness thought.
Click to expand...

Grand Poo Bah said:
This is actually real. I read a study last year that talked about how QLCS systems usually happen between 1-2000 CAPE in the early spring, and anything above that is usually more volatile and supercellular, but in the late spring/summer QLCSs can easily happen in 3-4000 CAPE
Click to expand...

Indeed. Typically in cool season/early spring setups, cooling aloft does a lot of the heavy lifting. You definitely don't need the "soupy" surface conditions of later in the season, in fact you don't want it getting too warm at the surface to keep your LCLs down and your mixing in check.

Standing in the screaming inflow/stiff ambient synoptic wind watching Keota, I actually felt a bit of a chill and wished I had more than a T-shirt.
 
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