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Severe Weather 3/4 - 3/8

atrainguy said:
I believe this is the first tornado threat of the year for me. Kinda surprising there's already a hatched threat for Michigan too, even though it's only 2%.
Click to expand...
..SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST

A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO WILL EXIST TODAY, WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL, SOME HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN KS
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT, AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WARM
FRONT FROM IA EASTWARD. BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE ACROSS
IA AND VICINITY, WITH BOTH BOWING STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS
PRODUCING WIND, HAIL, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF IL, IN, AND INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MI, AND WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER, LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL FAVOR ROTATING STORMS AND PERHAPS SOME TORNADO RISK.

ANOTHER FOCUSED AREA OF POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHERN TX INTO
EASTERN OK, WESTERN AR AND SOUTHWEST MO, WHERE INCREASINGLY DEEP
MOISTURE TO 700 MB AND DAYTIME HEATING WELL EAST OF THE DRYLINE MAY
YIELD A ZONE OF TORNADO POTENTIAL. MID 60S F DEWPOINTS, SOUTHWEST
850 MB WINDS TO 50 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 SUGGEST ANY
STORMS THAT FORM WITHIN THIS ZONE MAY HAVE TORNADO POTENTIAL.

A MORE CONDITIONAL RISK OF SUPERCELLS, INCLUDING TORNADO AND VERY
LARGE HAIL, WILL EXIST ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OK AND INTO WESTERN-NORTH
TEXAS. HERE, MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY PRODUCING PRECIPITATION
WITH A RELATIVELY STATIONARY DRYLINE AND THE WAVE PASSING WELL TO
THE NORTH. HOWEVER, STRONG HEATING WEST OF THE DRYLINE WILL OCCUR,
AT LEAST A NARROW ZONE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP.
PERHAPS AFTER A FULL DAYS HEATING AND TOWARD 00Z, AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL BE ABLE TO FORM SOMEWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE,
ASSUMING CAPPING REMAINS MINIMAL AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
NON-ZERO. VERY LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS TORNADOES ARE CONDITIONALLY
POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OK
AND MO, SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR QLCS TORNADOES.
 
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