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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

GFS showing something tropical, but not intense, rolling up here into Texas and breaking the heat and dry weather. If it stayed low and did not stay too long, that could change our summer temps which have already been up there since our ground moisture is down. We did not get the May rainfall we usually do.
 
Love the name. Hurricane Bud


Hurricane Bud.png
 
I do not think I have ever seen an Invest form in this area.


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is likely to form along a
stationary front near the coast of North Carolina on Wednesday.
Thereafter, environmental conditions could support this system
acquiring some tropical characteristics over the next few days as
the system moves eastward or northeastward away from the United
States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Formation over N Carolina.png
 
Times be a changin'. That is really interesting and weird all at the same time.
 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
to the south and southwest of Bermuda are associated with a weak
trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form before the end of the week while the system moves
west-northwestward and then northward between Bermuda and the east
coast of the United States. The disturbance is then forecast to
interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure and a
tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to become better organized. A tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean. By the weekend, however, upper-level winds
are expected to become less conducive for development when the
system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Click to expand...
 
Invest 94l and 95l. Spaghetti Models go.


94l and 95l.png
 
95L is struggling to close off due to strong easterly trades. These same easterly trades are the cause in the cooler than normal MDR.
 
 
Welp, just when it looked like the SSTs in the Atlantic were recovering and becoming more favorable

mdrssta.png
 
Jacob said:
Welp, just when it looked like the SSTs in the Atlantic were recovering and becoming more favorable
Click to expand...
Big Saharan dust layer out over the Atlantic due to a strengthening Bermuda ridge and enhanced trades is permitting more evaporative cooling. The MJO looks to remain unfavorable for at least the next 1-2 weeks.

But, just remember, current SST doesn't necessarily indicate an unfavorable core of the season. 2002's active season was driven by an incredible September and early October. Just look below at where 2002 vs 2018 is...and we were in very similar ENSO states.

BOspKGx.gif

anomnight.7.23.2018.gif
 
Oh absolutely. Cooler SSTs out in the tropical Atlantic don't mean anything once a storm gets into the GOM or in close off the east coast. (or forms in one of those locations)

Also, I wonder why the Atlantic looks so much different on that map you posted than some of the other SST maps? Everything else seems to match up

gfs_world-ced_sstanom_1-day.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png
 
Jacob said:
Oh absolutely. Cooler SSTs out in the tropical Atlantic don't mean anything once a storm gets into the GOM or in close off the east coast. (or forms in one of those locations)

Also, I wonder why the Atlantic looks so much different on that map you posted than some of the other SST maps? Everything else seems to match up

gfs_world-ced_sstanom_1-day.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png
Click to expand...
Thought this was intriguing regarding the discrepancies. OPSO (the images I posted) incorporates buoy and ship data. It seems the satellite only derived data is having some issues regarding over-cooling. I don't think the Atlantic is cooling at the rate the satellite data shows...it just isn't warming to climatological levels. With the MJO weakening, I suspect a warming trend in the coming few weeks.

 
The monsoonal trough is getting pretty active, and there’s a strong disturbance currently over Africa to come over water in the next 4 days.
 
Kory said:
Thought this was intriguing regarding the discrepancies. OPSO (the images I posted) incorporates buoy and ship data. It seems the satellite only derived data is having some issues regarding over-cooling. I don't think the Atlantic is cooling at the rate the satellite data shows...it just isn't warming to climatological levels. With the MJO weakening, I suspect a warming trend in the coming few weeks.
Click to expand...

I wonder if the Saharan dust over the Atlantic at the time caused some satellite issues? Seems those SST values have bounced back closer to reality now.

mdrssta.png
 
EPAC basin trending significantly above average so far this year. Not something you normally want to see if you want an active Atlantic.
 
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