HRRR at the end of range (6p Sat) doesn't see any accumulations from the CAD event by that time, but MEG is going to be a mess if that 1/2inch+ of ice stripe verifies.
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January 23-25th Winter Wx
- Thread starter UncleJuJu98
- Start date
MikeP
Member
And after this weekend, a solid 1500 miles north to south will be covered.
bckhd2
Member
Fox5 is STILL on Facebook calling for 0.75" of ice in Atlanta with 0.40" all the way out to Newnan. Would love to know what they're looking at as the NWS estimates only a 3% chance of 0.75" or more for ATL and a 0% chance for the western suburbs. I get that they need to warn viewers that it could be a major ice storm, but I just think they are way overdoing the total accumulation.
GFS at 18Z was putting out that much and more, though it is the outlier for sure.
bckhd2
Member
Yeah the GFS has definitely been putting out some eye-popping numbers. I just think no one models the CAD very well until it's basically on top of us. We'll see what the NWS is saying when I do my 6am review while convincing myself to get up and go to the gym. I was super impressed with FFC's discussion today. They often drive me nuts during severe season, but I have to say they have been really crushing it the past couple days.
Yep, models mostly held steady today. No huge changes.
0Z NAM Nest is seeing GA accumulations from Saturday night CAD event.
UpperLevelLOL
Member
Man the HRRR just dumps all over OKC snow wise, if that verifies we would easily be in double digits of snow. Across the board there is no sign of a bust or weakening in the models 24 hours out
N4GK
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It’s called sensationalism and an attempt at key clicks.
bckhd2
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I tend to believe that my local meteorologists don’t wake up in the morning thinking “how can I best frighten and deceive the people of north central Georgia today” but I do wish they would explain where they’re getting their numbers from, especially when there’s a large difference between them and the NWS.
MattW
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Probably some kind of average of several models. The 18z GFS showed 1.17 for Newnan. New 0z shows less for Newnan, but still an inch and a half for Atlanta. GFS seems to be going a bit more north and includes a brief period of above-freezing temps on Sunday. It almost looks like the GFS and Euro are finally converging.
Thanksgivingbrown
Member
I do agree with you there, especially with it being Fox. They are the worst for fear and sensational headlines
SAME!!! It is soo painful right now. My mom was also telling me that her bones were saying there would be some ice. It is hard to disregard that kind of feeling, no matter what models may be saying. I am hoping that we get by with no big disaster, but trying to be prepared, just in case of a last minute surprise. It wouldn't be the first time we got one of those.
We sure are! I remember the RSSS, and I'm hoping that the BlountWolf Ice Shield will keep Ice far away, but my OLD bones are not loving whatever this is that is headed our way. Please turn up the power on that Ice Shield. There is nothing that I hate more than hearing the crack of trees breaking under the weight of a bunch of ice, and knowing all of the havoc that ice brings with it. Yuck! Do not want!
One things for sure all of North MS is gonna be slipping and sliding
Kds86z
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Grand Poo Bah
Member
It's amazing how much the estimates change when you include sleet. Obviously sleet won't have the same 10:1 ratio as snow (more like 2:1 to 4:1), but this is 100% the missing element people are barely talking about.
I think a large swath of West Tennessee up to Nashville will see 3-6 inches of sleet on top of 2-8 inches of snow.
How i'm calculating:
(Total Precip accumulation - (Total snow accumulation / 10) - freezing rain accumulation) * (sleet ratio) = Sleet accumulation
The "sleet ratio" is 2 or 4.
I think a large swath of West Tennessee up to Nashville will see 3-6 inches of sleet on top of 2-8 inches of snow.
How i'm calculating:
(Total Precip accumulation - (Total snow accumulation / 10) - freezing rain accumulation) * (sleet ratio) = Sleet accumulation
The "sleet ratio" is 2 or 4.
I do think some of these values may be a bit high, especially along the southern fringe, but at the same time, with a lot of this precipitation being rather heavy (versus backend light flurry-type activity), I wouldn't be surprised if areas that don't have snow do have a few inches of sleet.
Grand Poo Bah
Member
Sneaky little severe threat brewing too
0ZGFS maintains its consistency, and my shield holds. 
Well, for my place at least. I sure hope this doesn't verify NW Alabama though, I have family in Fayette county. This needs to stay over in MS and not sneak in over here (no offense MS people). I already have enough to worry about with my N GA friends and family.
Well, for my place at least. I sure hope this doesn't verify NW Alabama though, I have family in Fayette county. This needs to stay over in MS and not sneak in over here (no offense MS people). I already have enough to worry about with my N GA friends and family.
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