Bee the Light
Member
I'll take it as I live on a hill and have a steep driveway and really don't want to commute to downtown.
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January 23-25th Winter Wx
- Thread starter UncleJuJu98
- Start date
I have a reliable source that says yes. They will put Gwinnett, Cobb, DeKalb, Rockdale, and the city of Atlanta, central and N. Fulton.
bckhd2
Member
Makes sense to me. If the wedge is strong enough, those areas could definitely get up into the 0.4-0.5" range
Shucks, wanted snow here in Dallas, looks like we're headed into a horrible ice storm.
KevinH
Member
Take a look at the title of the graphic in the upper left hand corner. THEN look at the color legend
FYI - This is why the warm air wins.
One of the hardest things to get across in winter weather is that the atmosphere is three-dimensional. What you feel at the surface is only the bottom slice of a much deeper system, and it’s often not the part doing the real work.
That’s where the 850mb chart comes in.
The 850 mb level sits roughly 4,000–5,000 feet above the ground. It’s high enough to be above shallow surface cold air, but low enough to directly influence precipitation type, temperature trends, and storm evolution. When forecasters talk about warm air advection in winter storms, this is usually where they’re looking first.
This looks like a blowtorch. It's going to pull up a ton of warmth (and moisture) up out of the gulf, and turn this in to a frontal passage kind of system with a distinct line.
Honestly, if I was a betting man - I would bet this blowtorch kicks the wedge's tail.
One of the hardest things to get across in winter weather is that the atmosphere is three-dimensional. What you feel at the surface is only the bottom slice of a much deeper system, and it’s often not the part doing the real work.
That’s where the 850mb chart comes in.
The 850 mb level sits roughly 4,000–5,000 feet above the ground. It’s high enough to be above shallow surface cold air, but low enough to directly influence precipitation type, temperature trends, and storm evolution. When forecasters talk about warm air advection in winter storms, this is usually where they’re looking first.
This looks like a blowtorch. It's going to pull up a ton of warmth (and moisture) up out of the gulf, and turn this in to a frontal passage kind of system with a distinct line.
Honestly, if I was a betting man - I would bet this blowtorch kicks the wedge's tail.
Like "ATL in the 60s on Sunday" kind of kicks it's tail. IJS. (According to the ECMWF)
Grand Poo Bah
Member
Is the RRFS anymore reliable for snow storms than it is for severe weather?
Psalm 148:8
Member
Have you seen the temps and wedge portrayal from the HRRR??? I might wind up with thunderstorms or freezing rain?? Such a very wide spread still!! Looks like this one is coming down to 4th and goal at the 1 yard line.
Snow has started to fall here. Big, big flakes
UpperLevelLOL
Member
HRRR does seem bullish on the CAD. At that range though, I wonder if it's just locked on to the CAD and showing more persistence than it should. HRRR is great within 18. At 48, well - I'll wait to see if it gets any support.
EDIT - they actually look a lot closer at 48 than I thought at that point. A glazing of ice, then temps in the 60s the next day? Would be a wild swing, but possible.
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Seems possible, though it's clear they're still on the fence about it.
Even considering how much modelling tends to underestimate CAD?
bckhd2
Member
GFS still showing significant ice from Gainesville down 85 into the metro. While I think this is definitely overdone, I will never bet against the wedge, and highly doubt Atlanta will be all the way up to 60 on Sunday.
That's a beast of an 850 nose. WAA city. So if CAD wins, it was the bigger beast in a ridiculous title fight.
I can say for a fact I am glad I have no money on the outcome of this fight. I do not envy FFC at all - the whole system (still) has chicanery written all over it. I stand by my earlier statement that reality is going to slap someone unexpectedly on this one. Which direction (cold or warm) it comes from is yet to be seen though. I'd love to be confident, but I'm just not - and anyone who is not seeing all the variables.
TVILLE96
Member
I hope this warm nose holds for central Alabama. I want winter weather but not crippling ice .
N4GK
Member
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Count on it holding.
- Thread starter
- #778
My work here in Birmingham, is talking about the potential for delaying Monday. I guess if its icy or something here.
sak
Member
i bet murfreesboro goes above freezing during the event to be honest. i won't be surprised to see a changeover to rain at some point. the EURO has places like pikeville, KY changing to rain...
NAM Nest backs off the CAD ZR and goes with the line. Still a glaze Sat night in ATL, but line look like the Euro. Persists the CAD longer than the Euro though.
