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January 23-25th Winter Wx

sak said:
seems fine to me. i doubt atlanta will have any issues till later in the afternoon.

euro has precipitated arriving in NW AL after lunch. atlanta would be several hours after that.
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I am happy to hear that since it looks like I’ll be the one taking him :D
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
I feel like the National blend of models might be sending the wrong message. The Euro, GFS, and NAM are all different enough that it's screwing with the averages. If two models are showing 18 inches, but one is showing zero, that would make the average 12 inches. Obviously that's an oversimplification, but I think this is what we're seeing across a huge swath. I actually think what's really going to happen is one of the models will be right and snow/freezing rain will be much more intense than currently forecast, but in a potentially smaller area.

Basically, I think there's so much discrepancy between the models that using the NBS to make forecasts is kind of lazy and undersells the potential ceiling of this event. I'm actually convinced we'll see something closer to what the GFS is showing, but even the Euro is far more intense than the NBS.
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nbs ensembles do have some credit and are accurate to the majority of areas that will see impacts. No model will get this right until it is the day of, the minute of. All these models are solutions, and nothing will truly be resolved. I only picked out 6 hr totals, which is why it isn't as extreme but turning on 72 hr, you would find a large, expansive area. It's important to note it isn't just EURO, GFS and NAM that this blend has, it is all different type of models so if is nto just them being picked out to make the average. Not sure what lazy would mean in this context either, i am just sharing the best to my ability I can, I'm no winter Wx expert but if the NBM can get the message through, that's good enough for me. Ensemble means are not the pinnacle of all forecasting but they're better then licking deterministics for granted
 
TVILLE96 said:
What does FFC denote ?
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Atlanta’s NWS office isn’t actually in Atlanta. It’s located in Peachtree City, and it’s based at Falcon Field Airport. The airport’s identifier is FFC, and when the National Weather Service standardized office IDs decades ago, they often used the local airport code, not the city name.

Georgia
  • FFC – Peachtree City (Atlanta metro, north & central GA)
Alabama
  • BMX – Birmingham (central AL)
  • HUN – Huntsville (north AL)
  • MOB – Mobile (south AL / Gulf Coast)
Mississippi
  • JAN – Jackson (central MS)
Tennessee
  • MEG – Memphis (west TN, Mid-South)
  • OHX – Nashville (middle TN)
  • MRX – Morristown (east TN)
Carolinas
  • GSP – Greenville-Spartanburg (upstate SC / western NC)
  • RAH – Raleigh (central NC)
  • ILM – Wilmington (coastal NC)
  • CHS – Charleston (coastal SC)
Florida
  • TAE – Tallahassee (FL Panhandle / south GA)
  • TBW – Tampa Bay
  • MLB – Melbourne (east-central FL)
  • MFL – Miami
  • JAX – Jacksonville
  • KEY – Key West
Louisiana
  • LIX – New Orleans/Baton Rouge
  • SHV – Shreveport (north LA / east TX)
Arkansas
  • LZK – Little Rock
Kentucky
  • LMK – Louisville
  • JKL – Jackson (eastern KY)
  • PAH – Paducah (far western KY)
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Falcon Field airport.. Peachtree City, GA just south of Atlanta. They run the state from north GA to about 3/4 of the way to the south. BMX is Birmingham Alabama.. the run the middle of Alabama .. its call signs for state areas.
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FFC geographical area is insane. Macon use to have a NWS should still be there. Some of the wording from FFC forecasts are very confusing especially when you live in the Atlanta metro.. it's ridiculous that Alabama and South Carolina each with about 5 million people have three national weather service offices. Georgia has one with 12 million people.
 
Baxter said:
FFC geographical area is insane. Macon use to have a NWS should still be there. Some of the wording from FFC forecasts are very confusing especially when you live in the Atlanta metro.. it's ridiculous that Alabama and South Carolina each with about 5 million people have three national weather service offices. Georgia has one with 12 million people.
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Actually part of southern Ga is covered by Florida offices.. southwest counties are covered by the Tallahassee office
 
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WeathermanLeprechaun said:
nbs ensembles do have some credit and are accurate to the majority of areas that will see impacts. No model will get this right until it is the day of, the minute of. All these models are solutions, and nothing will truly be resolved. I only picked out 6 hr totals, which is why it isn't as extreme but turning on 72 hr, you would find a large, expansive area. It's important to note it isn't just EURO, GFS and NAM that this blend has, it is all different type of models so if is nto just them being picked out to make the average. Not sure what lazy would mean in this context either, i am just sharing the best to my ability I can, I'm no winter Wx expert but if the NBM can get the message through, that's good enough for me. Ensemble means are not the pinnacle of all forecasting but they're better then licking deterministics for granted
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Oh I 100% wasn't referring to you with my comment. Sorry if it seemed that way! I was just speaking in a general sense. I feel like in this instance, there's so much variability, that the ceiling of the event is hiding underneath the swath of averages. "Lazy" was a bad word choice regardless. Maybe the word is "oversimplifies" or "undersells".
 
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KevinH said:
Who is PBZ again? It would be helpful if the headers? at the top were included (date, time, NWS office) :)
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Pittsburgh, PA

TVILLE96 said:
Why do I get these messages that my posts are too short ?
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Cuts down on the back and forth banter somewhat. I think the idea is that if you've got something that is important enough to say that it's going to be shown to everyone, it will require a few words. While I tend toward verbosity myself and rather rarely find myself afflicted with that particular error message, I do concede that brevity has its place as well. ;)
 
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Grand Poo Bah said:
Oh I 100% wasn't referring to you with my comment. Sorry if it seemed that way! I was just speaking in a general sense. I feel like in this instance, there's so much variability, that the ceiling of the event is hiding underneath the swath of averages. "Lazy" was a bad word choice regardless. Maybe the word is "oversimplifies" or "undersells".
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It's all good. We could get more clarity eventually but for now it's doing a decent job at least getting the totals on point. Dangerous situation regardless
 
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