bckhd2
Member
Would you prefer that they randomly guess
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January 23-25th Winter Wx
- Thread starter UncleJuJu98
- Start date
Jason Mills
Member
Are you mad that the forecast has changed vs several days ago? That’s how the science of meteorology works.
xAB7x
Member
I am no expert, but I don't think anyone knows much more than a severe winter event is about to unfold and the general area that it will happen. I live in Florence, about 10 miles from the Tennessee line. I don't expect to understand exactly how it will unfold until Sunday.
Jason Mills
Member
I’m not going to comment on whether that was a good call or not - I don’t know either way. However, you do know that freezing rain is still in the forecast for a decent part of north Alabama, right? That (generally) has a disproportionately higher economic and human impact that snow does.
Seriously, y'all quit feeding the trolls. Ignore and let's move on - let them shout into a void.
I think in this situation what I would do as a B'ham met is warn based on the GFS, and express hope for the Euro solution. Not that I am saying the GFS is right you understand, just that it is plausible. So you plan and you warn the public based on the possible, and then express how some of the highly respected models say just rain. Tough call though - the delicate juggle between too much and too little information is tougher with all the scrutiny a system like this brings. Honestly, I'm glad to be am amateur watcher of weather right now.
I think in this situation what I would do as a B'ham met is warn based on the GFS, and express hope for the Euro solution. Not that I am saying the GFS is right you understand, just that it is plausible. So you plan and you warn the public based on the possible, and then express how some of the highly respected models say just rain. Tough call though - the delicate juggle between too much and too little information is tougher with all the scrutiny a system like this brings. Honestly, I'm glad to be am amateur watcher of weather right now.
This is the NAM NST's ZR accumulation output through 60 hrs (end of it's range). Wedge freezing rain scenario. This accumulation (in GA) Sat from about 2pm to midnight.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
What has been your problem the past day or two ever since trends flipped? Model inconsistency is not a new thing and winter systems are always hard to forecast. Offices can never hit the nail on the head, you shouldn't take these forecasts as a exact guarantee. Nobody is perfect at this whole forecasting regime, technically even the professionals are still learning as we advance even further in technology and etc. The majority of these pages has been you just with all this "Forecasts are poor"
Just take it a bit easier and keep open to the possibilities. Not all of this event is set in sight until it truly happens.
genie
Member
The HP is stronger so far on Euro. May lead to a more southern track and stronger wedge.
bckhd2
Member
FFC now has ATL metro at a 21% chance of 0.5"+ through 7pm Sunday. Worst seems to be settling in the Blairsville-Gainesville-Athens area. UGA might be out of classes for a bit
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
72 hr probs for freezing rain on this system. NW AL most likely to get clipped but could still be very impactful regardless. Things remain the same. Significant problems in Texas/OK/Arkansas/Mississippi/Louisiana and the Carolinas with freezing rain. Very, very potent solution here
Attachments
Where can I find that map?
genie
Member
No major changes with the EURO. Still tracks the low well inland. Wedge is a hair stronger, leading to slightly higher ice totals in CAD areas.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
bckhd2
Member
Euro coming in with slightly stronger wedge, ~0.5" of freezing rain out to about I-75 corridor now
warneagle
Member
3/4 inch of ice up here on top of probably close to a foot of snow? no thank you.
My kingdom for a "deviation from forecast" metric. I'd love to know what the modeled vs. observed temps under the arctic high have been like as it moves in.
Grand Poo Bah
Member
I feel like the National blend of models might be sending the wrong message. The Euro, GFS, and NAM are all different enough that it's screwing with the averages. If two models are showing 18 inches, but one is showing zero, that would make the average 12 inches. Obviously that's an oversimplification, but I think this is what we're seeing across a huge swath. I actually think what's really going to happen is one of the models will be right and snow/freezing rain will be much more intense than currently forecast, but in a potentially smaller area.
Basically, I think there's so much discrepancy between the models that using the NBS to make forecasts is kind of lazy and undersells the potential ceiling of this event. I'm actually convinced we'll see something closer to what the GFS is showing, but even the Euro is far more intense than the NBS.
Basically, I think there's so much discrepancy between the models that using the NBS to make forecasts is kind of lazy and undersells the potential ceiling of this event. I'm actually convinced we'll see something closer to what the GFS is showing, but even the Euro is far more intense than the NBS.
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
Ok, noted thx for da heads up.
sak
Member
seems fine to me. i doubt atlanta will have any issues till later in the afternoon.
euro has precipitated arriving in NW AL after lunch. atlanta would be several hours after that.
