Central Ohio Wx
Member
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Severe Weather Threat November 24-25, 2025
- Thread starter MichelleH
- Start date
KevinH
Member
TOR probs are about what I expected based on what everyone here and the SPC were saying. Now we wait.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Is this possibly something on the Selma storm?
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Most of it is in the clear slot of the storm. Not much of a concern anymore but it could've been significant had that merger earlier not crushed it.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Gotcha, thanks!
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
No problem!
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
do we say this could get tor'd in the near future?
AJS
Member
That definitely has quite the structure i’m not gonna lie.
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Poor low level lapse rates and a mix of mid level lapse rates have limited today's threat by far. Despite the decent windfields, thermos are definitely poorer then i expected, and should significantly limit confluence bands too. Tornado threat is significantly limited and makes potential for a strong tornado threat rather low at this time. Perhaps a bit too premature on my part for this setup
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Cell near Eclectic is worth watching.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
If a single cell does fire in that area, is there still a chance we could see a strong tornado?
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
There is a very low chance we could but the thermodynamics just let this event down huge which is good. Otherwise could've dealing with spinny spam in Alabama
KevinH
Member
First half of the most updated AFD from BMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1234 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
- Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected through
tonight. There is a level 1 to 2 out of 5 risk for severe
thunderstorms with hazards including isolated damaging winds,
quarter size hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.
- Clear and colder conditions are forecast for Thanksgiving Day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
Currently watching the effective warm front work quickly
northward. Based on dewpoint it is currently north of Tuscaloosa
and Alabaster, but just south of Birmingham. We have a southerly
wind at the Shelby County Airport with dewpoint at 66 degrees. In
just one hour we have gone from 61 to 66. Montgomery and Auburn
are also at 66 degree dewpoint this hour. We are seeing some
breaks in the clouds ahead of the line of storms is MS and along
and south of the effective warm front. We are monitoring several
weak circulations along the line and ahead so the potential
remains for severe weather and low end chance of a few tornadoes
until the line passes. Given the orientation of Jefferson county
we included it in the tornado watch for the southern half of the
area. Not sure if the effective warm front can pass all the way
through the county before the line of showers and storms to our
west work through. Otherwise timing of the system appears to be on
track and will only make minor changes to the timing through
tonight. Behind the front drier and cooler air will be in place.
Will need to keep an eye on the afternoon dewpoints, with more
information in the fire weather section on that.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1234 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
- Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected through
tonight. There is a level 1 to 2 out of 5 risk for severe
thunderstorms with hazards including isolated damaging winds,
quarter size hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.
- Clear and colder conditions are forecast for Thanksgiving Day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
Currently watching the effective warm front work quickly
northward. Based on dewpoint it is currently north of Tuscaloosa
and Alabaster, but just south of Birmingham. We have a southerly
wind at the Shelby County Airport with dewpoint at 66 degrees. In
just one hour we have gone from 61 to 66. Montgomery and Auburn
are also at 66 degree dewpoint this hour. We are seeing some
breaks in the clouds ahead of the line of storms is MS and along
and south of the effective warm front. We are monitoring several
weak circulations along the line and ahead so the potential
remains for severe weather and low end chance of a few tornadoes
until the line passes. Given the orientation of Jefferson county
we included it in the tornado watch for the southern half of the
area. Not sure if the effective warm front can pass all the way
through the county before the line of showers and storms to our
west work through. Otherwise timing of the system appears to be on
track and will only make minor changes to the timing through
tonight. Behind the front drier and cooler air will be in place.
Will need to keep an eye on the afternoon dewpoints, with more
information in the fire weather section on that.
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
alr way better structure wise those merger(s) did help it a tad me thinks
Kds86z
Member
NorthGaWeather
Member
You can think the MCS that plowed through Dixie/Southern Appalachians for helping to create chaos with the mesoscale. Still, instability is building across central AL and slowly into W GA, along with a favorable overlap of mid/low level shear. An updraft or two will have a few hours to take advantage of the environment for all modes, but probably more of a wind threat at this point with a highly localized tornado threat.