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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

The TCR for Hurricane Iona released earlier today, and the peak intensity has been increased from the operational 110 kts (125 mph) to 115 kts (130 mph) and Iona has been upgraded from a Category 3 hurricane to a Category 4 hurricane.

 
BoM has declared Tropical Low 02U (Tropical Cyclone 05S by the JTWC) as Tropical Cyclone Fina, the first named storm of the 2025-26 Australian Region Tropical Cyclone Season.

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Atlantic said:
The TCR for Hurricane Iona released earlier today, and the peak intensity has been increased from the operational 110 kts (125 mph) to 115 kts (130 mph) and Iona has been upgraded from a Category 3 hurricane to a Category 4 hurricane.

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What a surprise! /s

In all fairness, glad they pulled the trigger and pleasantly surprised that they got it out this quickly. The Central Pacific has been ZOOMING with these recent TCRs, man.
 
Lake Martin EF4 said:
What a surprise! /s

In all fairness, glad they pulled the trigger and pleasantly surprised that they got it out this quickly. The Central Pacific has been ZOOMING with these recent TCRs, man.
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The NHC has been helping this year, so that’s probably why they are releasing them quicker.

Hurricane Hone’s report still isn’t out yet unfortunately, and its been over a year since the storm happened:
 
Fina made landfall in northwest Australia earlier today, becoming the third-earliest landfalling Cat 1+ TC for Australia on record.

A signal has appeared across all of the main models in some form for a potential tropical cyclone to form in the Bay of Bengal in the North Indian Ocean in the last days of November or the early days of December. The next name is Arnab in the North Indian Ocean.
 
Tropical Cyclone Fina becomes the first Severe Tropical Cyclone of the season on the Australian tropical cyclone scale by BoM.

Current JTWC estimated intensity is 70 kts.

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Fina is clearly intensifying now, with a cloud-filled eye feature visible. Current JTWC estimate is 80 kts (90 mph) and they expect the storm to peak at 95 kts (110 mph), just shy of major cyclone status.

I won’t be surprised if Fina overachieves and reaches major cyclone status and reaches at least 115 kts (130 mph), if not higher.
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BoM now expects a Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone peak on the Australian Region tropical cyclone scale now.
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Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina has intensified to 90 kts (105 mph) according to the JTWC, and they now expect a peak of 100 kts (115 mph), which is within major cyclone strength (111 mph or higher)
 
Here is the latest forecast on Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina from the BoM, which as of now remains a Category 3 on the Australian scale according to BoM, but it is still expected to intensify into a Category 4 on the Australian scale.
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Fina becomes the first SHEM major cyclone of the 2025-26 season with the recent release of the 00Z best track on Fina saying 100 kts (115 mph).
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The JTWC’s newest forecast on Fina expects a peak occurring shortly of 105 kts (120 mph) before dry air and wind shear begins decimating the cyclone.
 
On top of Fina being the first major cyclone of the 2025-26 SHEM season and of the Australian Region season, it is the 24th major cyclone globally overall.
 
BoM upgraded Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina to a Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone on their Australian scale, but they do not expect any further intensification now, only a brief steady state before weakening commences soon.

The JTWC currently has the intensity at 95 kts (110 mph), just under the major cyclone strength it achieved last night.
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Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina looks interesting right now
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Invest 92W in the WPAC has received the Philippine name Verbena, and it is now known as Tropical Depression Verbena in the Philippines.

The next international name in the WPAC is Koto, which replaced Kammuri after the destruction that that typhoon did in 2019.
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Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina briefly peaked at 115 kts (130 mph) and was a Category 4-equivalent on the SSHWS and a Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone on the Australian scale. It is now weakening as it makes it third and final landfall in northern Australia.
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Also Invest 92W (Tropical Depression Verbena in the Philippines) has now been upgraded to a High Chance invest by the JTWC as it begins to move over the Philippines.
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WTPN21 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9N 126.8E TO 11.1N 121.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.9N 126.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 132.1E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 128 NM NORTHEAST OF
DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 240126Z
METOP C 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION AROUND A
CIRCULATION WITH A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC AND AREAS OF FORMATIVE
BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE CIRCULATION. A 240129Z ASCAT
PASS REVEALS A WELL CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER AS WELL AS 25 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED 140 NM NORTH OF THE
PERCEIVED CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ASSESSED AS FAVORABLE
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 92W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRANSITS OVER THE PHILIPPINES WITH INTENSIFICATION
IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250600Z.
//
NNNN
 
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