WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I've actually been using this tool for a bit since i got private access to it but it seems that it has made public so, these are automated GEFS outlooks for severe weather (Europe/US) https://rawinsonde.com/index.html
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Severe Weather 2025
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
Kds86z
Member
- Moderator
- #7,543
Thoughts?
As this system continues east across the ArkLaTex into the Lower MS
Valley on Monday, some severe potential could persist into these
areas. However, uncertainty regarding moisture return and degree of
destabilization due to potentially ongoing and widespread training
precipitation precludes severe probabilities at this time. Some risk
could continue across parts of the TN Valley/Southeast into Tuesday.
However, the upper trough is expected to be weakening and lifting
well north of the region by this time.
As this system continues east across the ArkLaTex into the Lower MS
Valley on Monday, some severe potential could persist into these
areas. However, uncertainty regarding moisture return and degree of
destabilization due to potentially ongoing and widespread training
precipitation precludes severe probabilities at this time. Some risk
could continue across parts of the TN Valley/Southeast into Tuesday.
However, the upper trough is expected to be weakening and lifting
well north of the region by this time.
- Thread starter
- #7,544
KevinH
Member
Give it a few more days lol
CheeselandSkies
Member
I don't see any reason to disagree with this assessment.
"However, confidence in a corridor of greater
severe risk remains too low to include higher severe probabilities
at this time."
Prompts me to think that there is potential, given as they mention enlarging low-level hodographs just prior, "Modest enlargement of
low-level hodographs with time could also support a tornado threat". I'm thinking a broad MRGL and 2% risk will service the region while areas of locally higher chances will just be managed by mesoscale discussions. Daytime heating is still along the lines of the models, not less or more. There is much ongoing messy convection though, not sure yet how much that may dampen the environment.
severe risk remains too low to include higher severe probabilities
at this time."
Prompts me to think that there is potential, given as they mention enlarging low-level hodographs just prior, "Modest enlargement of
low-level hodographs with time could also support a tornado threat". I'm thinking a broad MRGL and 2% risk will service the region while areas of locally higher chances will just be managed by mesoscale discussions. Daytime heating is still along the lines of the models, not less or more. There is much ongoing messy convection though, not sure yet how much that may dampen the environment.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
- Moderator
- #7,548
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible later today into
tonight across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and
northern Alabama.
...MS/AL/TN/KY...
Early morning water vapor imagery shows broad west-southwesterly
flow aloft extending from the southern Plains into the southeast
states. A southern-stream shortwave trough is noted over LA/AR,
which will traverse across the mid-South and TN Valley today.
Multiple areas of precipitation will be present along/ahead of this
feature, with forecast soundings showing weak-but-sufficient CAPE
for a few thunderstorm clusters. Mid-level lapse rates are weak,
suggesting most updrafts will struggle to intensify. However,
forecast hodographs show strong low-level shear today from eastern
MS across parts of AL/Middle TN and southeast KY. This could be
enough for one or two rotating cells capable of a tornado or
damaging wind event. The overall threat appears marginal at this
time.
The primary surface cold front will move into this region after dark
tonight, with another round of showers and thunderstorms ahead of
the front. Low-level winds are expected to somewhat veer by this
time, reducing low-level shear. Nevertheless, a low risk of a
tornado or two and/or gusty winds will continue.
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible later today into
tonight across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and
northern Alabama.
...MS/AL/TN/KY...
Early morning water vapor imagery shows broad west-southwesterly
flow aloft extending from the southern Plains into the southeast
states. A southern-stream shortwave trough is noted over LA/AR,
which will traverse across the mid-South and TN Valley today.
Multiple areas of precipitation will be present along/ahead of this
feature, with forecast soundings showing weak-but-sufficient CAPE
for a few thunderstorm clusters. Mid-level lapse rates are weak,
suggesting most updrafts will struggle to intensify. However,
forecast hodographs show strong low-level shear today from eastern
MS across parts of AL/Middle TN and southeast KY. This could be
enough for one or two rotating cells capable of a tornado or
damaging wind event. The overall threat appears marginal at this
time.
The primary surface cold front will move into this region after dark
tonight, with another round of showers and thunderstorms ahead of
the front. Low-level winds are expected to somewhat veer by this
time, reducing low-level shear. Nevertheless, a low risk of a
tornado or two and/or gusty winds will continue.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Early next week looks interesting in regards for severe weather. I honestly haven't hardly been keeping up with forecast models or weather in general lately. My grandma had a seizure earlier this week and it's been a whirlwind ever since.
Attachments
Wishing her and your family well!
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
Haven't seen not the first report out of this evening from there
- Thread starter
- #7,556
KevinH
Member
Say what now?
The tweet noted that there was 3 unwarn tornadoes yesterday in Mississippi. There hasn't been the first report of that happening.
- Moderator
- #7,558
Praying for your Grandma JP. SPC agrees with you.
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Tue - Southeast...
A cold front will continue east across the Southeast on Tuesday as a
surface low deepens across the Upper Midwest. This strengthening
surface low, will sharpen the cold front during the day as it
advances east. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected
across MS/AL ahead of this cold front. Mid-level flow will
strengthen through the day and provide ample deep-layer shear for
storm organization. A few supercells capable of isolated large hail
may be possible. A focused zone of severe weather potential likely
exists from central Mississippi to northern Alabama, but
probabilities are not high enough to warrant a 15% contour at this
time.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Chaser in the area was in Laurel, MS and said there was a likely rain-wrapped tornado.
Very unusual behavior for Dixie, not often, you see cyclical tornadoes drop one after another. Fascinating production likely due to several mergers I would guess.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
This is the PTDS product from GR2 and apparently, potentially 3-5 tornadoes took place on the TN/KY border last night as well. If numbers are right, weird event for a 2%.
Regarding @JPWX, i wish a great recovery to your grandmother!
Regarding @JPWX, i wish a great recovery to your grandmother!
