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  • Current Tropical Systems
    Melissa

Severe Weather 2025

Weird area of rotation in Central LA rn on the backside of the storm, potential bookend vortex but doesn't seem like it? LLJ kicking in but unsure if storms will sustain ahead of thermodynamic issues.
 

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A few tornadoes perhaps possible now in the mid-atlantic tomorrow. Mid level lapsw rates raise questions about storms sustaining but otherwise, conditional threat. We will see
 

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The conditional few tornadoes risk appears to have trended the good way. Morning convection is currently zapping up instability in the vicinity which was the best scenario. Admittedly we're rather lucky that instability was zapped. These shear profiles are rather impressive. If we got up to around 800-1k MLCAPE, very easily a strong tornado or two would've been possible.
 

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WeathermanLeprechaun said:
The conditional few tornadoes risk appears to have trended the good way. Morning convection is currently zapping up instability in the vicinity which was the best scenario. Admittedly we're rather lucky that instability was zapped. These shear profiles are rather impressive. If we got up to around 800-1k MLCAPE, very easily a strong tornado or two would've been possible.
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Looking at latest forecast model runs (18z GFS, 12z Euro, and 12z Canadian), it looks like we might get back into the severe weather potential by late next week into next weekend.
 
I'm thinking about getting the RadarOmega Radar Sweep add on
 
KevinH said:
Came here to look for THESE kind of comments lol

@Clancy you feel like chiming in at all about November? Ha
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Agree with @JPWX. GFS shows a storm system for late next week into the weekend, but nothing that immediately appears overly-impressive. Likewise, ensembles show some possible disturbances moving through during that time frame, but it's not particularly eye-popping. This time of year, setups seem to be either immediately obvious due to kinematic profiles well into the medium range or rather hard to sniff out until a few days before.
 
With how active the troughing has been over the east in the past two weeks, the moisture return for these upcoming systems is going to be rather unimpressive I imagine. Parts of the Gulf of Mexico's coastline aren't even managing dews in the 40s right now. It isn't the dead of winter yet, though, so I'm guessing it isn't going to be as challenging for said dewpoints to return to normal given enough time to do so.
 
...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
On Saturday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to quickly
take shape over the central U.S. Ahead of the trough, low-level
moisture is forecast to return northward into the Ark-La-Tex and mid
Mississippi Valley, where thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon. Convective coverage is forecast to expand southeastward
into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley Saturday night. Model forecasts
suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will
be in place, which would support a severe threat from Saturday
afternoon and evening. Concerning the potential for a severe weather
event, uncertainty is substantial. Some solutions suggest that the
favorable environment for severe will remain spatially focused into
a small area, and that a front could undercut the convection. For
this reason, will keep the forecast at "predictability too low".

On Sunday, the system is forecast to move eastward across the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, an isolated severe
threat will be possible across parts of the Southeast and southern
Atlantic Seaboard. However, uncertainty concerning the potential for
severe storms is considerable at this range.
 
Modelling definitely sniffing out a possible threat for Friday. SPC also mentions it. Nothing crazy, but worth keeping an eye on. Mid-month could also be something, but it's way out there for now.
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Friday...
An area-of-interest, sufficient for a Predictability Too Low
highlight, appears centered on the OH Valley to Deep South. A
large-scale mid/upper trough should consist of several embedded
shortwave impulses progressing east from Hudson Bay through the
central to eastern CONUS. Primary surface cyclone is expected to
shift from the Upper Great Lakes into QC, with a trailing cold front
to its southwest undergoing frontolysis in the TN Valley/Deep South
by Friday night. Modified moisture return from the southern Gulf may
support moderate buoyancy over the Lower MS Valley, with a plume of
weak buoyancy extending into the OH/TN Valleys ahead of the front. A
belt of strong mid-level westerlies will yield favorable deep-layer
shear for organized severe potential. Latest GEFS-based SPC/NSSL ML
probs have trended upward with severe indications, more aggressive
than yesterday's available NCAR ECENS-based guidance. Overall setup
may tend to favor a more mesoscale-driven 15% area given uncertainty
on timing of convective development along the southwest extent of
the weakening front and the degree of destabilization where ascent
is stronger to the northeast.
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1762315234265.png1762315256958.png1762315281745.png1762315290488.png
 
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