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Hurricane Melissa

Why are they obsessed with having no recon for like 6 hours then 3 hours of simultaneous recon
Because it isn't easy to have a constant stream of planes flying into a hurricane. Limited resources = this. Things need to be done by a standardized schedule as well.

There's literally nothing wrong with doing it this way, we can extrapolate intensities without risking the lives of people too. Although each individual plane pass is technically a minimal risk to the lives on board, it's still a risk nonetheless.
 
Give it 10 years and decent funding, and we'll do recon unmanned. It's coming.
Threat level is increasing rapidly for Montego Bay, Jamaica’s 2nd largest city.

These slight westward shifts will have a big impact on landfall due to the angular nature of Jamaica’s southern coast.

If Melissa clips the west side of the island it will experience relatively minimal land interaction compared with the more eastern track. This would mean Montego Bay could see devastating impacts even though it’s on the north side of the island

In Kingston and the east, the threat for flooding remains very high but the ceiling is perhaps a bit lower than yesterday. Good news in you’re in Kingston, bad news for Mo Bay/Negril
One concern with that is how hard the NE turn is. A little too hard and it drags the worst right front quadrant over Kingston still. Worst case it hard rights and is over the island longer west to east. I really think it's a matter of degrees of catastrophe though, honestly - the wind at elevation in the mountains around Kingston are going to rip it apart almost no matter where it passes, unless a miracle occurs. I'd not want to be anywhere on that island for the next 48. Here's hoping the whole track is miraculously wrong.

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Why are they obsessed with having no recon for like 6 hours then 3 hours of simultaneous recon
Even though I'd love to see recon in this thing consistently, this is the type of system recon can't afford to just sit around in. They had to evacuate, their plane was in very severe turbulence. You have to remember how dangerous it is in a type of storm like this. They did 4-5 dips into it despite how intense it was in the mid levels, and i think they've did a brilliant job.
 
Even though I'd love to see recon in this thing consistently, this is the type of system recon can't afford to just sit around in. They had to evacuate, their plane was in very severe turbulence. You have to remember how dangerous it is in a type of storm like this. They did 4-5 dips into it despite how intense it was in the mid levels, and i think they've did a brilliant job.
My problem was that they plan 2 recons at once for a couple hours, than no recons for 6 hours. Seems kinda counterintuitive.
 
I think recon is gonna post some shocking, historic numbers in the next hour.
I believe a sub-900 mb reading is imminent. If Dvorak is to be trusted, ~892 mb is certainly on the table, but I'm guessing it's floating around the 895 mb and 185 mph range atm.

Also, looks like it is floating west again. I'm starting to think that a scenario where the storm "clips" the west edge of the island is in play here.
 
NOAA mission 21 is currently over Cuba (which is pretty cool, IMO) and AF mission 22 is taking off from base now.

NOAA mission is in the WP-3D Orion - "Kermit"
 
That might be a major structural change occuring now. How it’ll affect its current intensity idk. But…might be a weakening trend starting if that change is a destablization of the eyewall.
 
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