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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

The disturbance in the Eastern Pacific is up to 0/50 now. The GFS is wanting a tropical cyclone outbreak in the basin, which wouldn’t be surprising considering what this basin has done this year so far.
This became Tropical Depression Ten-E yesterday evening, and it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Juliette just over an hour ago.

On top of Juliette, we now have a 0/20 AoI to watch in the Eastern Pacific as well.

Invest 99L in the Atlantic is unlikely to form, and chances are now at 10/10.

Typhoon Kajiki is making landfall in northern Vietnam as I type this as a 90 kt (105 mph) typhoon, and it is expected to move inland and quickly dissipate within the next 48 hours or so.
 
Typhoon Kajiki has made landfall in near Vinh, Vietnam with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and a pressure of 967 mbs.
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how cool is this but yes you can use spaghetti models from a different tropical weather websites but i just thought this was too neat to share
 
Hi, Julie! Be a good girl, okay?
Nearly became a hurricane. Peaked at 60 kts (70 mph) it is post-tropical now and its moisture could surge up into California, what’s left of it that is.
 
Invest 93W became Tropical Depression 20W overnight last night. PAGASA (Philippines) gave it the next name on their list: Jacinto
 
That moment when the NHC highlights the whole basin for development (it was a glitch)
 
How about a round three of an off-season SHEM storm? We have had a system every month of this pre-season so far with 01S in July and Awo in August, both of which we in the Southern Indian Ocean.


Once again the Southern Indian Ocean is up for the possibility of another development.
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In the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Kiko is getting itself into gear as a 95 kt (110 mph) Category 2 hurricane. It is expected to peak at 115 kts (130 mph), a Category 4 hurricane.

Also in the Eastern Pacific we have concurrent Hurricane Lorena threatening the Baja California peninsula as a 70 kt (80 mph) Category 1 hurricane currently. It is expected to intensify a bit more to 85 kts (100 mph), which is a Category 2 hurricane. It is then expected to weaken before crossing over Baja California and briefly move across the Gulf of California before moving inland over mainland Mexico. Its remnants could bring decent rains to Arizona and Texas when all is said and done.

Recently we had Tropical Storm Nongfa in the South China Sea in the Western Pacific, which was a weak tropical storm that struck Vietnam and affected the same region that Typhoon Kajiki recently struck. It degenerated into a remnant low over Laos but its remnants survived into the Bay of Bengal in the North Indian Ocean. The remnants then moved into the east coast of India yesterday and dissipated. It had the Philippine name Jacinto.

About an hour ago Invest 95W became Tropical Depression 21W. 21W is expected to briefly become a tropical storm before getting picked up by the jet stream over the northern Western Pacific and whipped eastwards out to sea as an extratropical cyclone.

In the Atlantic we are watching a disturbance very closely that has a 30%/70% chance right now.
 
In the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Kiko is getting itself into gear as a 95 kt (110 mph) Category 2 hurricane. It is expected to peak at 115 kts (130 mph), a Category 4 hurricane.

Also in the Eastern Pacific we have concurrent Hurricane Lorena threatening the Baja California peninsula as a 70 kt (80 mph) Category 1 hurricane currently. It is expected to intensify a bit more to 85 kts (100 mph), which is a Category 2 hurricane. It is then expected to weaken before crossing over Baja California and briefly move across the Gulf of California before moving inland over mainland Mexico. Its remnants could bring decent rains to Arizona and Texas when all is said and done.

Recently we had Tropical Storm Nongfa in the South China Sea in the Western Pacific, which was a weak tropical storm that struck Vietnam and affected the same region that Typhoon Kajiki recently struck. It degenerated into a remnant low over Laos but its remnants survived into the Bay of Bengal in the North Indian Ocean. The remnants then moved into the east coast of India yesterday and dissipated. It had the Philippine name Jacinto.

About an hour ago Invest 95W became Tropical Depression 21W. 21W is expected to briefly become a tropical storm before getting picked up by the jet stream over the northern Western Pacific and whipped eastwards out to sea as an extratropical cyclone.

In the Atlantic we are watching a disturbance very closely that has a 30%/70% chance right now.
Thanks hurricane man @Atlantic.
 
How about a tale of two Kikos?

We have Hurricane Kiko in the Eastern Pacific as a slightly weakened Category 4 hurricane with 115 kt (130 mph) winds. Kiko previously peaked at 125 kts (145 mph) before weakening due to a EWRC.

In the Western Pacific we have Tropical Storm Peipah (21W became Peipah) which is known as Kiko in the Philippines.
 
The Atlantic disturbance is now Invest 91L. It seems possible that this could be more of a U.S. threat than Erin ever was.
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First guidance on 91L

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How about a tale of two Kikos?

We have Hurricane Kiko in the Eastern Pacific as a slightly weakened Category 4 hurricane with 115 kt (130 mph) winds. Kiko previously peaked at 125 kts (145 mph) before weakening due to a EWRC.

In the Western Pacific we have Tropical Storm Peipah (21W became Peipah) which is known as Kiko in the Philippines.
Dang what, wow @Atlantic
 
As Peipah goes out to sea and finishes extratropical transition, we have an Invest 97W that is now a High chance invest just west of the northernmost Philippine islands.
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WTPN21 PGTW 051430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W) //
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4N 119.1E TO 19.4N 116.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.6N 118.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.0N 118.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 118.7E, APPROXIMATELY 381.2 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION JUST SOUTH
OF THE CENTER ASSISTING THE SYSTEM WITH A LINE OF CONVERGENCE DEEPENING
THE CONVECTION. A 051241Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 15-20 KT WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING TO WRAP CLOSER TO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WARM (30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MAINLAND CHINA WITH CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061430Z.
//
NNNN
 
Nothing like the 06Z GFS this morning trying to mimic a weaker version of Milton and Milton’s track…
 
Kiko looks very gorgeous this afternoon:
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Kiko looks very gorgeous this afternoon:
View attachment 46427
Kiko is back to a 115 kt Category 4, after an EWRC weakened it to a 100 kt Category 3 (barely a Major Hurricane). Kiko is forecast to reach a secondary peak of 125 kts by early tomorrow morning.
 
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