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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

KakashiHatake2000 said:
what exactly are you trying to look for with a hurricane archive there are places like wikipedia if that can help hopefully its not a whole lot but at least maybe some info about say hurricane andrew for example and that was from 1992 who knows maybe people or someone posts about tropical systems from the past on x or social media but im not sure if its every single one maybe also youtube hopefully all that helps :)
Click to expand...
The TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook) Maps
 
Something is cooking in the Quintana Roo.

(Well, more like off the coast of Honduras, but close enough, and Quintana Roo is more fun to say.)

IJS
 
Haven’t been updating this thread for several days as I’ve been following Tropical Storm Erin very closely.
 
Last edited:
Brief update on the non-Atlantic tropics.

  • Podul peaked at 90 kts (110 mph) and moved over Southern Taiwan. It continued to weaken though landfall in China and it is now dissipated.
  • We now have an Invest 90W out at 7.2°N 169.4°E, pretty far east in the WPAC. Closer to the International Date Line than to China. It could move westwards for several days and possibly become a TC beyond 7 days as it moves near China
 
Years where the Atlantic has had its first category 5 before the Western Pacific:
2025
2024
1992
1988
1980
1979
1977
1969
2024 and 2025 are the first 2 consecutive years on record.
 
Three Invests have been present in the Western Pacific recently. The first was in the South China Sea west of the Philippines. It became short-lived Tropical Depression 17W, the third year in a row that a 17W has failed to be named by JMA.

The second invest formed into Tropical Depression 18W southwest of the southernmost tip of Japan. It became Tropical Storm Lingling last night after JMA named it. It has the Philippine name Huaning.

The third invest started out near 160-165*E and was briefly upgraded to a medium chance invest according to the JTWC, before being downgraded to low again. It is Invest 90W and it is approaching the Philippines right now. The EURO model wants it to go straight west through the Philippines and into the South China Sea while continuing almost due west.


We have a 40/70 AoI in the Atlantic alongside 40/40 Invest 99L and a newly introduced 30/30 small area of low pressure expected to continue eastwards.

We also have a 0/30 AoI in the Eastern Pacific to watch for the potential to develop into a TC
 
JPWX said:
Interestingly, CSU does not list Typhoon Danas as a category 3, so based off this, the Western Pacific still has not had a major typhoon.

Real-Time Northwest Pacific Ocean Statistics compared with climatology

tropical.atmos.colostate.edu tropical.atmos.colostate.edu
Click to expand...
The Western Pacific is pulling an Atlantic 2012.

2012 had a high number of named storms and hurricanes but an unusually low number of major hurricanes, with 2 occurring. Both only peaked at 100 kts (barely a major hurricane at all)
 
Invest 90W was upgraded to high chance by the JTWC yesterday evening, and it is appearing more than likely that it will form in the South China Sea. Should JMA name it, the next name is Kajiki

90W has also received the local Philippine name Isang.
 
Atlantic said:
Invest 90W was upgraded to high chance by the JTWC yesterday evening, and it is appearing more than likely that it will form in the South China Sea. Should JMA name it, the next name is Kajiki

90W has also received the local Philippine name Isang.
Click to expand...
Invest 90W’s TCFA:

IMG_5395.gif
WTPN21 PGTW 212230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1N 123.4E TO 17.0N 117.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1N 123.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.9N 126.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 123.3E, APPROXIMATELY 71 NM EAST
OF CASIGURAN, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 212053Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT,
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15
KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND
VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE DEFINED CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON AND
EMERGE WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER LUZON AND
INTENSIFY WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER RECOVERING FROM THE IMMINENT
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
222230Z.
//
NNNN
 
The disturbance in the Eastern Pacific is up to 0/50 now. The GFS is wanting a tropical cyclone outbreak in the basin, which wouldn’t be surprising considering what this basin has done this year so far.
 
Atlantic said:
Invest 90W’s TCFA:

View attachment 46271
WTPN21 PGTW 212230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1N 123.4E TO 17.0N 117.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1N 123.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.9N 126.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 123.3E, APPROXIMATELY 71 NM EAST
OF CASIGURAN, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 212053Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT,
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15
KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND
VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE DEFINED CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON AND
EMERGE WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER LUZON AND
INTENSIFY WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER RECOVERING FROM THE IMMINENT
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
222230Z.
//
NNNN
Click to expand...
This became Tropical Depression 19W earlier today. JMA upgraded it from tropical depression “b” (since Lingling was active at the same time in the same basin) to Tropical Storm Kajiki. This one is likely to become a Typhoon in the South China Sea while being a straight runner (going nearly due west)

WTPQ51 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2513 KAJIKI (2513) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 17.6N 116.4E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
12HF 231200UTC 18.3N 114.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 240000UTC 18.3N 111.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 250000UTC 18.4N 107.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 260000UTC 19.1N 103.6E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =




 
We have Tropical Storm Fernand from Invest 90L.

AL, 06, 2025082318, , BEST, 0, 266N, 617W, 35, 1010, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 90, 0, 0, 1015, 110, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FERNAND, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, TRANSITIONED, alB02025 to al062025,
 
Atlantic said:
We have Tropical Storm Fernand from Invest 90L.

AL, 06, 2025082318, , BEST, 0, 266N, 617W, 35, 1010, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 90, 0, 0, 1015, 110, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FERNAND, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, TRANSITIONED, alB02025 to al062025,
Click to expand...
ATCF has updated too on CyclonicWx:
IMG_5513.jpeg
Welcome to the 6th named storm of the season. Only land it could impact is Bermuda, otherwise it is an OTS like Erin.
 
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Fernand, located in the southwestern Atlantic, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).
 
Typhoon Kajiki is quickly blowing up into a decently strong typhoon, with the 06Z ATCF setting the intensity at 90 kts (105 mph). It is expected to make landfall in northern Vietnam after moving into the southern Gulf of Tonkin not long now.
 
Atlantic said:
Typhoon Kajiki is quickly blowing up into a decently strong typhoon, with the 06Z ATCF setting the intensity at 90 kts (105 mph). It is expected to make landfall in northern Vietnam after moving into the southern Gulf of Tonkin not long now.
Click to expand...
JTWC expects Kajiki to peak at 105 kts now, but its eye has cleared out on infrared and I could see this pushing Cat 4 equivalent.

Earlier
himawari9_ir_19W_202508240650.gif

Near realtime now
himawari9_ir_19W_202508240750.gif
 
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