Kds86z
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- Greencastle, PA
lol no . Oh well
-
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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion
- Thread starter Atlantic
- Start date
KakashiHatake2000
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- Southern United States
you might have to hit the paint holder and change it that way to a different color
Another AoI has been marked behind 95L with 0/20 chances right now.
The Atlantic MDR area of interest is a tropical wave that is expected to move off the coast of Africa tomorrow night according to the NHC. NHC in the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook upped the 7 day chances to 40% so it is now 0/40.
The Atlantic MDR area of interest is a tropical wave that is expected to move off the coast of Africa tomorrow night according to the NHC. NHC in the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook upped the 7 day chances to 40% so it is now 0/40.
After 45 freaking warnings and 11 days, Krosa is finally done for:
————————————————————
Krosa (Japanese Typhoon Number 9) is located 1604 km east-northeast of Misawa, Japan, and has tracked east-northeastward at 41 km/h (22 knots) over the past 6 hours. Minimum central pressure at 03/18:00 UTC is 983 hPa. Maximum significant wave height is 6.7 meters (22 feet).
Infrared imagery shows an elongated and heavily sheared system, with nearly fully exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) and remaining associated convection to the east. Additionally, an older MetOp-B ASCAT image showed highly asymmetric wind field, with higher intensities along the southern portion of the circulation.
The system is currently becoming extratropical, due to crossing into the baroclinic zone to the north. Krosa is positioned poleward of a western extension of a subtropical jet.
Assessment is supported by GFS and ECMWF phase cyclone diagrams. Additionally, very cold (17–18°C) sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear are creating an increasingly hostile environment for tropical development.
Model guidance is in strong agreement in regard to the track and intensity, resulting in high confidence of the official JTWC forecast.
This is the final warning on this system by JTWC. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.
Warning Number 45. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
————————————————————
Krosa (Japanese Typhoon Number 9) is located 1604 km east-northeast of Misawa, Japan, and has tracked east-northeastward at 41 km/h (22 knots) over the past 6 hours. Minimum central pressure at 03/18:00 UTC is 983 hPa. Maximum significant wave height is 6.7 meters (22 feet).
Infrared imagery shows an elongated and heavily sheared system, with nearly fully exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) and remaining associated convection to the east. Additionally, an older MetOp-B ASCAT image showed highly asymmetric wind field, with higher intensities along the southern portion of the circulation.
The system is currently becoming extratropical, due to crossing into the baroclinic zone to the north. Krosa is positioned poleward of a western extension of a subtropical jet.
Assessment is supported by GFS and ECMWF phase cyclone diagrams. Additionally, very cold (17–18°C) sea surface temperatures and increasing wind shear are creating an increasingly hostile environment for tropical development.
Model guidance is in strong agreement in regard to the track and intensity, resulting in high confidence of the official JTWC forecast.
This is the final warning on this system by JTWC. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.
Warning Number 45. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
Invest 90S in now High chance according to the JTWC.
WTXS21 PGTW 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.3S 94.4E TO 13.0S 90.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.6S 94.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.0S 95.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 94.3E, APPROXIMATELY 262 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS) FROM
THE SOUTHEAST, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT 90S WILL TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE MAKING A
SOUTHERLY TURN, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE INTENSITY WISE OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
042200Z.
//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.3S 94.4E TO 13.0S 90.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.6S 94.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.0S 95.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 94.3E, APPROXIMATELY 262 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS) FROM
THE SOUTHEAST, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) AND MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT 90S WILL TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE MAKING A
SOUTHERLY TURN, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE INTENSITY WISE OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
042200Z.
//
NNNN
Invest 95L became Tropical Storm Dexter late last night. It is expected to move out to sea and not affect any land areas.
We got Tropical Depression 14W overnight from the High Chance WPAC invest, but the storm is already dead.
Invest 90E became Tropical Depression Eight-E last night as well. It could pass north of Hawaii as a weakening Tropical Storm. Next name in the Eastern Pacific is Henriette.
We got Tropical Depression 14W overnight from the High Chance WPAC invest, but the storm is already dead.
Invest 90E became Tropical Depression Eight-E last night as well. It could pass north of Hawaii as a weakening Tropical Storm. Next name in the Eastern Pacific is Henriette.
Well Invest 90S in the SHEM is about to be a bu$t.
JTWC cancelled the TCFA on it and downgraded it to Low.
JTWC cancelled the TCFA on it and downgraded it to Low.
WTXS21 PGTW 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032151ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 032200). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 92.1E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FULLY-EXPOSED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST. A RECENT 071736Z
OCEANSAT BULLSEYES PASS INDICATES 10-15 KNOTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WITH 20-25 KTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 27-28 C OFFSET BY HIGH EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 25-30 KNOTS AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH THE BULK OF
GUIDANCE REVEALING AN ELONGATED SYSTEM THAT STRUGGLES TO CONSOLIDATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032151ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 032200). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 92.1E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FULLY-EXPOSED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST. A RECENT 071736Z
OCEANSAT BULLSEYES PASS INDICATES 10-15 KNOTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WITH 20-25 KTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 27-28 C OFFSET BY HIGH EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 25-30 KNOTS AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH THE BULK OF
GUIDANCE REVEALING AN ELONGATED SYSTEM THAT STRUGGLES TO CONSOLIDATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
NNNN
Invest 97W has been upgraded to a High chance of formation by the JTWC and they have issued a TCFA on it.
WTPN21 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.2N 158.4E TO 35.0N 156.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 26.7N 158.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 26.2N 159.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 158.7E, APPROXIMATELY 625
NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEING SHEERED
LIGHTLY FROM THE PRIMARY CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. A 051051Z ASCAT-
C PASS INDICATES A SYMMETRIC, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT
WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN MOST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THAT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS),
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-
29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE AGREEING THAT INVEST 97W WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK, WITH THE GFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREEING WITH A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
HIGH
.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061500Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.2N 158.4E TO 35.0N 156.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 26.7N 158.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 26.2N 159.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 158.7E, APPROXIMATELY 625
NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEING SHEERED
LIGHTLY FROM THE PRIMARY CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. A 051051Z ASCAT-
C PASS INDICATES A SYMMETRIC, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT
WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN MOST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THAT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS),
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-
29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE AGREEING THAT INVEST 97W WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK, WITH THE GFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREEING WITH A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
HIGH
.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061500Z.//
NNNN
Kds86z
Member
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- 5,004
- Location
- Greencastle, PA
Kds86z
Member
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- Location
- Greencastle, PA
Well for once what seemed like a junkie actually might form after all.
Look at 91S now!
Meteo-France now has this at a moderate chance of development in the next 5 days.
The JTWC noted 91S in their TWD for the Indian Ocean area earlier this morning:
ABIO10 PGTW 060730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/060730Z-061800ZAUG2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8S
63.3E, APPROXIMATELY 549 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH A
DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 060530Z ASCAT-B PASS
SHOWS A WIND FIELD OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC, WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS TURNING INTO THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 91S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/060730Z-061800ZAUG2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8S
63.3E, APPROXIMATELY 549 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH A
DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 060530Z ASCAT-B PASS
SHOWS A WIND FIELD OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC, WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS TURNING INTO THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 91S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN
The disturbance in the Eastern Pacific is now Invest 91E. It is at 90/90 chances right now and it will likely become a tropical depression or tropical storm later today.
The Atlantic MDR AoI is currently at 20/60 development chances and models are currently suggesting that this could recurve out to sea.
The area of the East Coast of the United States is still at 10/40 chances and a low pressure area is spinning with little convection right now.
We have Invest 98W in the Western Pacific right now, and the GFS wants it to become a significant typhoon that moves westward towards Taiwan and China.
The Atlantic MDR AoI is currently at 20/60 development chances and models are currently suggesting that this could recurve out to sea.
The area of the East Coast of the United States is still at 10/40 chances and a low pressure area is spinning with little convection right now.
We have Invest 98W in the Western Pacific right now, and the GFS wants it to become a significant typhoon that moves westward towards Taiwan and China.
The TWO for the Eastern Pacific upped the chances of 91E forming to 100/100, and the ATCF updated to 18Z with 35 kts, so expect Tropical Storm Ivo at 5 pm PST.
Invest 91S in the SWIO has a feeder band from the north towards the equator and it has 360 degree outflow, it certainly looks like a TC now.
And the tropical wave in the Atlantic MDR has been designated Invest 96L.
Invest 91S in the SWIO has a feeder band from the north towards the equator and it has 360 degree outflow, it certainly looks like a TC now.
And the tropical wave in the Atlantic MDR has been designated Invest 96L.
This became Tropical Depression 15W overnight, and it is not expected to intensify at all really, similarly to the former 14W that it absorbed while developing.
