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Severe Weather 2018

This severe weather season will be?

  • Above Average

    Votes: 7 31.8%

  • Average

    Votes: 13 59.1%

  • Below Average

    Votes: 2 9.1%
  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
May be looking at a legitimate severe setup for Dixie first few days of June... a potentially rare low shear but EXTREME CAPE setup is being portrayed on the GFS for the region and its been maintaining this idea for a little while.

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sbcape.conus.png


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rolltide_130 said:
Took this for Huntsville off the 12z GFS. By far the most explosive sounding for this area I have EVER seen.

gfs_2018052612_204_34.5--86.25.png
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Very poor shear on this sounding, but really explosive environment. Seems like a wind/hail event to me, granted possibly a quite notable one, especially considering dixie setups aren't very common at this time a year.
 
xJownage said:
Very poor shear on this sounding, but really explosive environment. Seems like a wind/hail event to me, granted possibly a quite notable one, especially considering dixie setups aren't very common at this time a year.
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Yeah this may not be a tornado outbreak, but this is a supercell environment rarely seen around Dixie. This is usually reserved for areas such as Nebraska and Iowa.
 
rolltide_130 said:
Yeah this may not be a tornado outbreak, but this is a supercell environment rarely seen around Dixie. This is usually reserved for areas such as Nebraska and Iowa.
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I don't know. I'd definitely like to see a bit more turning with height for a supercell threat and bulk shear is rather meager. I'd say the threat here is if we get a cold pool established and end up with a high end MCS to Derecho threat with that NW flow. Definitely large hail will be a problem but with that very strong EML and insane cape, wind damage will be a huge threat if we get an MCS cranking. Another problem will also be the saturated ground.

500wh.conus.png
 
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ARCC said:
I don't know. I'd definitely like to see a bit more turning with height for a supercell threat and bulk shear is rather meager. I'd say the threat here is if we get a cold pool established and end up with a high end MCS to Derecho threat with that NW flow. Definitely large hail will be a problem but with that very strong EML and insane cape, wind damage will be a huge threat if we get an MCS cranking. Another problem will also be the saturated ground.

500wh.conus.png
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It will grow upscale with time, but if this does materialize I would expect at least to this start out cellular before growing upscale.

Also, lightning will be absolutely riduclious with this thermodynamic profile. May be a case of nonstop lightning going on just ahead of and on the backside of the storm. If you have a camera this will be an excellent opportunity for some shots.
 
Assuming I did the calculation right (I doubt it) the Derecho Composite would be around 12 for north AL on the GFS.

Edit: Looking at a few other Derecho events, 12 is blasted high.
 
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ARCC said:
Assuming I did the calculation right (I doubt it) the Derecho Composite would be around 12 for north AL on the GFS.

Edit: Looking at a few other Derecho events, 12 is blasted high.
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In all fairness that is a volatile run the GFS showed, so it may not be out of reach.

I am a little concerned this could be a significant threat for us. Granted every now and then summer MCS season will roll out a nasty one.
 
rolltide_130 said:
In all fairness that is a volatile run the GFS showed, so it may not be out of reach.

I am a little concerned this could be a significant threat for us. Granted every now and then summer MCS season will roll out a nasty one.
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FWIW while not as extreme with instability, the Euro has a very strong MCS moving across North to North Central AL in the same time frame.
 
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