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Severe Weather 2025

Does the underperformance of storm systems this year have anything to do with the fact we've been in an ENSO neutral phase since the middle of April?
I wouldn't believe so. I've never came across anything that would suggest neither increase or decrease in respect to Neutral ENSO. We've certainly haven't had a decrease in tornado activity this year. More to do with individual storm systems and mesoscale factors. Some take full advantage some don't.
 
Does the underperformance of storm systems this year have anything to do with the fact we've been in an ENSO neutral phase since the middle of April?
ENSO has no bearing on whether a set up over/under performs.

Catastrophic tornado outbreaks and non events alike have occurred regardless of ENSO state.

It’s ultimately up to synoptic/mesoscale factors during an event that determine high/low ceilings.
 
I think this year has been anything but an underperformance.


March 14/15.
April 2-7.
May 15-16.
May 18-21.

These outbreaks really speak for themselves.
You’ve also had numerous intense/violent tornadoes with Diaz/Grinnell plausibly reaching EF5 strength.
And I’ve been here for it all!!

My first full severe weather season.
 
Since we've hit 1000 MCD's, May 26th, 2025 marks the 2nd earliest to hit MCD #1000 behind May 24th, 2008. Interestingly, we hit 1000 MCD's on May 27th, 2011, so we have beat 2011 in that regard.
 
"Under performers" was an extremely bad choice of words on my part and a oversimplified, insensitive version of a post I made earlier. @andyhb your point is valid and a solid reminder that the "performance" of an outbreak is more about its impact on lives than meteorological breakdown.

This last outbreak was significant in both regards. Those were some of the strongest long-track tornadoes we've seen in a long time. Many were violent. Even one with lesser significance straight up slapped the dominator off the road. The Plevna and Grinnell tornadoes were Monsters. People might say Plevna was another radar anomaly, but they would be wrong because we actually have significant evidence of it being firmly planted on the ground...and violently rotating.

IMG_2354.png

Look at the lights on the horizon for scale. It was a giant cone wedge. The type you see in textbooks. Andyhb shared a tweet from a meteorologist with an eyewitness account describing it as having "EF5" motion and a deafening roar. We also have radar images from just before and during collision with Plevna showing it started occluding as it hit town. It was an incredibly lucky, close shave for a town that was decimated

IMG_2355.pngIMG_2352.png

That was the end of its 90 minute lifespan. This, plus all the other significant tornadoes we saw leads me to conclude it was actually an 8 or 9 on the Meteorological "BS Scale" I created (even considering the analogs were Bridge Creek and the 1974 super outbreak). For what it's worth the March 14/15 outbreak was my 7/10, and that's only because it had the kinematics to be a generational super outbreak. My original post was also in regards to the several hatched risks and 10+STP days we've seen completely fail to initiate. We had a huge 15% hatched 14+ STP area up here in Iowa and Minnesota that had ONE tornado report by the end of the night. I didn't mean to offend and there has been some really good discussion about this topic already. This has been a very weird year.
 
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"Under performers" was an extremely bad choice of words on my part and a simple, insensitive version of the post I made earlier. @andyhb your point is valid and a solid reminder that the "performance" of an outbreak is more about its impact on lives than meteorological breakdown.

This last outbreak was significant in both regards. Those were some of the strongest, long-track tornadoes we've seen in a long time. Many were violent. Even one with lesser significance straight up slapped the dominator off the road. The Plevna and Grinnell tornadoes were Monsters. People might say Plevna was another radar anomaly, but they would be wrong because we actually have significant evidence of it being firmly planted on the ground...and violently rotating.

View attachment 43304

Look at the lights on the horizon for scale. It was a giant cone wedge. The type you see in textbooks. Andyhb shared a tweet from a meteorologist with an eyewitness account describing it as having "EF5" motion and a deafening roar. We also have radar images from just before and during collision with Plevna showing it started occluding as it hit town. It was an incredibly lucky, close shave for a town that was decimated

View attachment 43303View attachment 43302

That was the end of its 90 minute lifespan. This, plus all the other significant tornadoes we saw leads me to conclude it was a 9 or 10 on the Meteorological "BS Scale" I created. For what it's worth the April 14/15 outbreak was my 7/10, and that's only because it had the kinematics to be a super outbreak. My original post was also in regards to the several hatched risks and 10+STP days we've seen completely fail to initiate. I didn't mean to offend and there has been some really good discussion about this topic already. This has been a very weird year.

that pic is greensburg.
 
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