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Severe Weather 2025

Watch possible later today for massive squall line moving across the lower MSV today.
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Mesoscale Discussion 0988
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Areas affected...east-central LA...southwest into southern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 261557Z - 261800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A limited threat for strong/locally damaging gusts
seemingly exists in the near term through midday. The risk for
damaging gusts may increase this afternoon in the vicinity of prior
outflow/differential heating boundary, but the prospect for damaging
gusts remains uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a squall line
extending from far southeast AR south-southwestward into
west-central LA. Surface analysis places a remnant outflow
boundary/differential heating zone draped from east to west over the
southern tier of counties in southern MS westward into east-central
LA. South of the boundary temperatures are warming into the mid 80s
deg F with mid 70s dewpoints, and rain-cooled temperatures are in
the lower 70s north of the boundary in northeast LA and adjacent
portions of western MS.

An MCV associated with the linear MCS will continue eastward through
the lower MS Valley this afternoon. Some filtered heating through a
thin cirrus canopy ahead of the line will act to slowly destabilize
the boundary layer near and south of I-20. Given a gradual increase
in instability through the early to mid afternoon, expecting a slow
strengthening in storm intensity along the gust front. A few of the
stronger storms may pose an isolated risk for strong to locally
severe gusts (50-60 mph). There remains some uncertainty on the
spatial extent and magnitude of the potential strong/severe risk
during the afternoon. Will monitor convective trends for the
possibility of a small and targeted severe thunderstorm watch across
portions of southern MS.

..Smith/Guyer.. 05/26/2025
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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 988

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
I was wondering why they put a 2% TOR probability up for today. This explains it.
Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP
to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will
maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related
east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the
Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside,
an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence
some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into
Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and
existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such
potential.
 
Improvised line from Twisters: "We've Got Choppers!"
 
Sir, the square SVA you ordered.
1748282117878.png
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 330
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Louisiana
Central and Southern Mississippi

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1220 PM until
700 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue generally eastward and pose
mainly a damaging wind risk this afternoon through early evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles west northwest
of Meridian MS to 60 miles south southeast of Mc Comb MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
26030.

...Guyer
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Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch 330

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
JPWX said:
I was wondering why they put a 2% TOR probability up for today. This explains it.
Some guidance, particularly multiple recent NAM runs (but even RAP
to some extent), is insistent that the MCV near the ArkLaTex will
maintain its integrity through the day into tonight, with a related
east-northeastward transition over the ArkLaMiss toward the
Tennessee Valley in vicinity of the old synoptic front. MCS aside,
an MCV-related enhanced low/mid-level flow field could influence
some supercell/tornado potential later today across Mississippi into
Alabama, although prior-day outflow/convective overturning and
existing convection are major points of uncertainty for such
potential.
Click to expand...
and ironically that was the other things i mention that tends to do boom events that are not hybrid events, and its when a MCV passes at that spot before the event happens.

here is what happens when a MCV passes over a 0-1% chance of a tornado area
1748283694045.png
you can see more about this here https://cameronjnixon.wordpress.com/research/remnant-mcv-tornadoes/
 
One fascinating thing I've noticed about this severe weather season is we've had several systems roll through with extremely high cielings due to the abnormally intense kinematics in place. We've seen analogs of 04/03/1974, 05/03/1999, 04/27/2011, etc. with some of these systems. Those are upper echelon kinematics. However, I don't think there's been a single storm that has performed up to its potential cieling. On a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the max cieling, and 1 being the floor, the highest we've seen in terms of actual performance is maybe a 6 or 7.

Most systems have under performed their kinematics.

By contrast it seems like almost every single event in 2011 was a 10/10. Even 5% tornado days produced monsters like Joplin. The kinematics were upper echelon, and the systems' performance maximized them as well.

I wonder what the difference maker is. What causes some years to consistently maximize their parameters compared to years like this year where they underperform, and lean more towards failure modes.
 
Lake Martin EF4 said:
I'll take "March 14, 2025" for 500, Alex. What the hell would a "10" for that day even look like, anyway, besides what happened IRL?
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What he’s asking is an extremely valid question. With the kind of anomalous deep surface low and long wave trough geometry that was in place on 3/14, if that lead shortwave a few days earlier hadn’t scoured the moisture too much, you would have had an extremely large aerial area with sky high parameters and extremely favorable storm mode. Those features are what historically yields super outbreaks. Both days had extremely high ceilings, and as high impact as those days were, they didn’t hit their ceiling. I mean, we had a met on here from NWS Birmingham the day before those events saying it was in the realm of possibility we would see a super outbreak over those two days. Both of those days could have easily produced a Palm Sunday or 4/3/74 or 4/27/11 if they hit their ceilings with the right environment and no flies in the ointment.

That’s what makes a super outbreak though, it requires the utmost maximization at the background teleconnection state, the synoptic scale, the mesoscale, and storm scale.
 
T
TheWeatherAnalyst said:
What he’s asking is an extremely valid question. With the kind of anomalous deep surface low and long wave trough geometry that was in place on 3/14, if that lead shortwave a few days earlier hadn’t scoured the moisture too much, you would have had an extremely large aerial area with sky high parameters and extremely favorable storm mode. Those features are what historically yields super outbreaks. Both days had extremely high ceilings, and as high impact as those days were, they didn’t hit their ceiling. I mean, we had a met on here from NWS Birmingham the day before those events saying it was in the realm of possibility we would see a super outbreak over those two days. Both of those days could have easily produced a Palm Sunday or 4/3/74 or 4/27/11 if they hit their ceilings with the right environment and no flies in the ointment.

That’s what makes a super outbreak though, it requires the utmost maximization at the background teleconnection state, the synoptic scale, the mesoscale, and storm scale.
Click to expand...
The day before simulated reflectivity for the Alabama Mississippi area on the HRRR was also the most impressive around these parts since April 27th.
 
Lake Martin EF4 said:
I'll take "March 14, 2025" for 500, Alex. What the hell would a "10" for that day even look like, anyway, besides what happened IRL?
Click to expand...
Considering the analogs it was showing the night before, with #1 being 04/27/2011, in my opinion it 100% didn't hit its cieling.

I'm not just talking about performance here. I'm talking about performance compared to the max potential performance. The entire northern extent of the 03/14 threat turned into a messy MCS, and most (if not all) of the tornadoes were short tracked.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
This. You won't see something like this from the HRRR in a while for these parts. I screenshotted the simulated radar posted by Matt

View attachment 43265
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That was an insane run, but I remember like the apex run was maybe the HRRR that ran close to midnight. It had so many open warm sector discrete supercells that it had a second confluence band in Alabama.
 
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