Severe Weather 2025

[kcyalater]

per brandon the dust is extending up to the wall cloud’s nipple.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Jbop]

Looks like Brandon has a mother ship on stream. Nice shot

 

[Clancy]

Badda bing, badda boom, new Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Mississippi and Alabama, and a sliver of eastern Louisiana until 3 AM Central Time.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 328
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
755 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Southern Alabama
Northeast Louisiana
Central and Southern Mississippi

* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 755 PM
until 300 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Extensive convective line continues to push southeastward
across northern portions of LA, MS, and AL. This line is expected to
continue southeastward throughout the night into central/southern
AL, northeast LA, and central/southern MS, with an attendant threat
for damaging wind gusts. Isolated large hail is possible as well.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north
northeast of Auburn AL to 50 miles northwest of Natchez MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Clancy]

Checking in on Matt's livestream. Beautiful, no notes.

 

[JPWX]

Checking in on Matt's livestream. Beautiful, no notes.
View attachment 43248

I don't wanna go to sleep! LOL!

 

[Jbop]

From Reed's Facebook

Here is the small chopper we are researching for storm chasing

 

[OH-IOan]

From Reed's Facebook

Here is the small chopper we are researching for storm chasing



View attachment 43252

Helicopter storm chasing? That’s… arguably the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard in regards to tornado science. It’s so stupid, in fact, that I actually kind of want to see if it works or not.

 

[Thanksgivingbrown]

Helicopter storm chasing? That’s… arguably the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard in regards to tornado science. It’s so stupid, in fact, that I actually kind of want to see if it works or not.

News 9 uses their helicopter to get images of storms.

 

[Tennie]

News 9 uses their helicopter to get images of storms.

IIRC, several other stations in the Great Plains region tend to do that--but then again, the climatology, geography, and typical storm modes are fairly well suited to chasing from the air (be it by plane or helicopter).

In certain other areas (e.g. Dixie Alley), those same factors are less favorable to being chased by manned aircraft, limiting aerial chasing primarily to small unmanned drones.

 

[joshoctober16]

Late, I know, but the main threat with hybrids is that they can reach and maintain absolutely terrifying intensities. Three of the tornadoes @joshoctober16 has identified as being hybrids reached E/F5 intensity (Plainfield, Jarrell, Elie), one has been stated as possibly having EF5 winds (Scarif) and two other candidates he didn't mention likely reached EF5 intensity as well (Matador and Greenfield).

there should be more study's on hybrid tornadoes , as most of them happens on days that nothing too severe was expected (except for greenfield).

most of them have a unpredictable drink ish southish movement to them (except for greenfield).

i think most hybrids that form in a 1500+ cape environment tend to be all EF3-EF5.

it seems yesterday there was likely a hybrid but was one of the super rare rain wrap one (Plainfield situation, note Plainfield is the only one i lump into the hybrid group that was never stated to be hybrid , however everything about it seems to point as a rain wrap hybrid)

when grouping the tornadoes in parameter vs parameter you will notice Plainfield is near jarrell and or elie a lot.

 

[Clancy]

IIRC, several other stations in the Great Plains region tend to do that--but then again, the climatology, geography, and typical storm modes are fairly well suited to chasing from the air (be it by plane or helicopter).

In certain other areas (e.g. Dixie Alley), those same factors are less favorable to being chased by manned aircraft, limiting aerial chasing primarily to small unmanned drones.

Also, really depends on how you're using that helicopter. Circling from a fair distance? Reasonably safe with some risk. Trying to get up close and personal with a Dixie wedge? You've got a death wish.

 

[joshoctober16]

Guess what storm is producing a tornado based off PBL conditions and these Kinematics, the answer may surprise you.
View attachment 43245View attachment 43246

its to note the VTP has flaws and 2 big ones
1: no moister
2: Parameters have no capping , meaning the numbers might overflow and go big if one of the parameters gets to high

 

[joshoctober16]

From Reed's Facebook

Here is the small chopper we are researching for storm chasing



View attachment 43252

i suggest a unmanned drone then one with some one in it....

the real question that has been in my mind is why is there no waterspout boat chasing?

 

[jiharris0220]

its to note the VTP has flaws and 2 big ones
1: no moister
2: Parameters have no capping , meaning the numbers might overflow and go big if one of the parameters gets to high

That’s why STP (the one that uses SRH strictly within the effective inflow layer: 0-500m) is a better parameter because the values only get high if the Kinematics are volatile within the layer where CAPE originates from and CIN is the lowest.

What really screws the VTP is not only the issue with ignoring capping, but also the (0-3 km MLCAPE/50 J kg-1) and (0-3 km Lapse Rate/6.5 ℃ km-1) that’s incorporated in the Parameter.

Although the point of my post regarding the two environments is that you don’t always need high kinematics for tornadoes.

The NM supercell was a classic example of a “mesoscale accident”.

 

[joshoctober16]

That’s why STP (the one that uses SRH strictly within the effective inflow layer: 0-500m) is a better parameter because the values only get high if the Kinematics are volatile within the layer where CAPE originates from and CIN is the lowest.

What really screws the VTP is not only the issue with ignoring capping, but also the (0-3 km MLCAPE/50 J kg-1) and (0-3 km Lapse Rate/6.5 ℃ km-1) that’s incorporated in the Parameter.

Although the point of my post regarding the two environments is that you don’t always need high kinematics for tornadoes.

The NM supercell was a classic example of a “mesoscale accident”.

the 3CAPE and 0-3 km lapse rate is good to have... sadly having it not CAPPED causes the issue.
MLLCL and MLCIN and EBWD are capped but the rest are not.

 

[jiharris0220]

the 3CAPE and 0-3 km lapse rate is good to have... sadly having it not CAPPED causes the issue.
MLLCL and MLCIN and EBWD are capped but the rest are not.

The no capping issue for the 3kmCAPE and 0-3KM LLLR comes from the VTP not taking into account the magnitude of 0-500m SRH within the effective inflow layer.

Which means that any environment that is high in those two values are going to drive the VTP off the wall regardless if there’s capping or not.

Environments that don’t have high amounts of SRH in the effective inflow layer, which the depth is largely determined by if there’s capping or not and what level the capping is occurring, would not score high on the STP but has high values on the VTP.

They’re papers suggesting incorporating 0-500m SRH into the VTP, although not sure how close that is to becoming reality.

 

[andyhb]

The storm in NM interacted favorably with an outflow boundary to produce that tornado. It did nothing before or after. Parameters aren't necessarily going to pick that up if the orientation/movement of the boundary (or location of the storm itself) are not resolved well.

 

[joshoctober16]

The no capping issue for the 3kmCAPE and 0-3KM LLLR comes from the VTP not taking into account the magnitude of 0-500m SRH within the effective inflow layer.

Which means that any environment that is high in those two values are going to drive the VTP off the wall regardless if there’s capping or not.

Environments that don’t have high amounts of SRH in the effective inflow layer, which the depth is largely determined by if there’s capping or not and what level the capping is occurring, would not score high on the STP but has high values on the VTP.

They’re papers suggesting incorporating 0-500m SRH into the VTP, although not sure how close that is to becoming reality.

really need a parameter thread , but i swore i couldn't find the button to create a new thread for some odd reason....

would be nice to have a place to talk about parameters.

there's other parameters no one seems to talk about that were lost as well...

 

[jiharris0220]

The storm in NM interacted favorably with an outflow boundary to produce that tornado. It did nothing before or after. Parameters aren't necessarily going to pick that up if the orientation/movement of the boundary (or location of the storm itself) are not resolved well.

That was the point I was trying to make comparing the Kinematics of the two environments the cells in Tx where in and the NM cell.

A nudger supercell also occurred which caused an RFD surge just before the surface boundary arrived.

Which I can assume the surface boundary provided the stream-wise vorticity into the RFD surge which ultimately produced the tornado.